How much are food prices going to rise?

[LoveCleanLaundry]

Feeling anxious about rising prices from all angles, but especially in terms of worrying about loved ones already having a hard time making ends meet.

The price hikes in energy seem to have estimates as to how much they will be - wondering if there are any similar educated guesses as what food costs will be over the next year or so?

The thing is that people want to maintain the lifestyles they have been leading. Of course they do, nobody wants to be worse off. But the reality is that most people probably can economise more on their food if they have to. Obviously there are exceptions where people are already on the breadline.

Snack foods can be cut out and people will stop buying things like fizzy drinks and will go for cheaper cuts of meat or bulk out more with potatoes and vegetables.

It is tricky though when the traditional bulkers of bread, sponge puddings, dumplings etc are all wheat dependent.

The honest answer is nobody knows. If you remember the drama over Brexit people were losing their minds and predicting doomsday. It is sensible to think there is likely to be an increase though. Now is the time to get a slow cooker and to research cheaper foods/ recipes. That’s all you can really do to prepare.

I always try to shop with budget in mind and get non branded basics etc but I'd rather buy less and more basic food than help supermarkets rip the farmers off. If farmers' costs have quadrupled they need to get paid more whether that is through government grants or supermarkets making fewer billions in profit or customers paying more or a combination of all 3. Are we not all fucked if the farmers can no longer afford to operate?

Wow I didn't realise things would get that expensive or difficult to source. I'm not one for stocking up since the whole Brexit cupboard thing, I feel like it was unnecessary in the end and left me using up things that I had specifically bought because they were long lasting, rather than because I really enjoy them.
Maybe I'll make a bit of space for some flour and yeast though, we always enjoy home made pikelets and I haven't made home made pizza for a long time, which I something I used to really enjoy.

I come from a farming family. The dairy industry has been on its knees for years now. There’s a real concern form me the rises in diesel and energy etc is going to push farmers over the edge to where they can’t make any profit. If U.K. farmers have sell up we are all screwed.

And before any vegans butt in, the majority of land used for dairy can’t be used to grow crops, and arable farmers are going to have it even tougher with fertiliser price hikes.

Time to plant out our own garden later with as much veg as possible!

copying from what i wrote on another thread and adding

yep just got delivered 40 x 25kg coal worls out at £7.50 a bag bargain as normally £13 a bag and 4 builders bags of hard wood £240 for the open fire which kicks out lots of heat

24hrs after my delivery the price for the coal has goneup by £40

this now will last till next summer/autum and can really turn the CH down and we can keep the lounge really warm as im disabled and need heat in the day come winter time

im on a fixed rate till August so have upped my DD with eon and am £300 in credit but putting a little more in will hopefully soften the blow as they have not contacted about the increase yet

always get the chimney swept so thats another £60 and have a carbon monoxide alarm

been saving for my water bill which is normally £250 a year so have 400 and saved for my house insurance normally £300 got £600 so im all good with that end of things

its now been 7 days and have submitted meter reading and have saved approx £10 with watching the heating and leccy but still have the heating on just low temp and for less, normally use about £30 a week but todays figures have saved £10 in a week and im in all day

luckly had some home improvments last year so nothing really needs doing atm

but will be watching with interest as im sure their will be some good tips

@QueenOfHiraeth

Can I just say as an old gimmer, who has lived through times of inflation before, it sounds terrifying but you will cope. It sounds really trite but you find ways to economise and save that you never knew about before so please don't let these predictions worry you too much

BOOM, the truth! Everyone, remember what @QueenOfHiraeth has written here.

Everyone else - lay off the doomscrolling. It's not good for mental health. We'll get through this :)

Yes we have lived through inflation before. But 25% max if I remember correctly.

Anyone betting inflation will stay below 25%?

im going to take a trip to Aldi this weekand stock up on pasta

its worth planting a couple of tomatoe plants,so easy and i grow the cherry ones,clean then pop in the freezer saves on tins and the outlay is minimal,going to plant 4 plants this year you can als boil and sieve to make passata etc

looking to grow some new items this year
any reccs?

If growing your own I always recommend high value items like strawberries, raspberries etc.

@LoveCleanLaundry

Basic foods - a newspaper reckons food basic will increase by up to 50%

Jesus

Don't these scum bag papers just love to print scaremongering crap day in day out

I have only noticed one increase in a regular item....coffee....gone up from £2.09 to £2.25....nothing else has changed.....yet... which we buy each week.

all QueenOfHiraeth Sun 13-Mar-22 19:26:13
Can I just say as an old gimmer, who has lived through times of inflation before, it sounds terrifying but you will cope. It sounds really trite but you find ways to economise and save that you never knew about before so please don't let these predictions worry you too much

Thanks for this. My mum lived thru ww2 (!)says the same.

I heard someone on the radio weeks ago saying between 30 and 40% they estimate by end of the year.
Combo of reasons - production costs are higher, fertilisers etc are higher, fuel, utilities etc.

ive noticed many price risies and were not talking 10% more like 30/40 %

This is an interesting article from end of last year, was predicting around 5% at that time (pre Ukraine invasion)

www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2021/12/13/Food-inflation-hitting-retail-to-carry-on-into-2022-analyst

Also not all products are more expensive - there are exceptions (like flour)

Looking on the bright side (because let’s face it you have to!) Maybe a bit less food will do us all good. Obviously I am not talking about those on the breadline but the those of us who probably eat too much and throw away food. It will also make us more inventive and more likely to cook. We will probably end up healthier in the long run. I wish McDonald’s would shut in the UK- never mind Russia!

Married 1977 inflation hit I would walk around shops with a calculator counting every Penny we then had mortgage rates rising to 16% . Had a baby I remember being poor but happy. Our furniture came from family or local newspaper, got a few bits from the tip. Charity shops weren't a thing then.

I also remember the blackouts a few years earlier.

1990 recession we got through that. Seven years that lasted.

We'll get through this women are very inventive

Based on the new cost of farming, vegetables and fruit will be a huge problem too. Fuel
costs will mean that food (rightfully) isnt flown in from peru/brazil/south africa, just for us to have strawberries in March. Meaning local production has to ramp up, but is hampered by production costs and more fields needed for core crops like wheat and potatoes.
I wonder why oats are out of stock, as a pp mentioned.

Where I am, on mainland Europe, sunflower and vegetable oils, flour, pasta are all wiped off the shelves. Hopefully just a short panic buying that will subside.

Hopefully it will lead to a reduction in food waste. People won’t throw away perfectly good food because it’s a day past it’s best before date.

As a diabetic I don’t eat wheat, rice or potatoes. I thought when I had to change my diet my food costs would go though the roof eating only protein, fat and fibre but if anything I can save money.
One cheap food that is high protein and pretty versatile is eggs. You can buy 15 eggs for£1.29 in icelands ok they are not free range but needs must when you have to keep costs down. Cheap egg based meals are omelettes with whatever reduced veg you can get your hands on or poached , scrambled or boiled. Mince with an fryer egg on top and some grated cheese. Vegetable soup using Morrisons wonky veg, chickens wings and thighs bought plain and add your own seasoning or just a bit of salt and pepper if you don’t have anything else or room in your budget to buy and serve with Cauliflower cheese or make Cauliflower rice by grating the cauliflower. A cauliflower is under a £ in Morrisons and one cauliflower goes along way.
Morrisons sell wonky Courgettes for £1.50 a bag. These can be shredded and used instead of pasta to make a cheap meal with home made bolognese. Don’t buy ready made sauce but make your own with some cheap tomatoe purée, mixed herbs a small bit of mince and a couple of tomatoes if you have them.
I have found that if it comes. In a box, packet or jar it is more expensive so start making your own that way you can leave out or use less of in expensive ingredients and bulk out with the cheapest.

As a diabetic I don’t eat wheat, rice or potatoes. I thought when I had to change my diet my food costs would go though the roof eating only protein, fat and fibre but if anything I can save money.

The price of everything will go up, though. Because of the energy costs that are associated with producing every kind of food.

That's leaving out the fact that if eg wheat products rise in cost sharply, more people will be looking at alternatives to those wheat items - driving up the prices of those alternatives as demand rises for them.

It's messy and you won't be able to neatly avoid your food bill rising by simply avoiding certain things, unfortunately.

@BoredZelda for the item we produce a lot of farmers are now on feed link contracts. Feed is 80% of our input costs. The deal with the supermarkets means we have a fair margin whatever the feed costs are - if they go up then the price of our product goes up. Thank God we're on it otherwise there'd be no way we'd be restocking.

Eggs won’t stay cheap. In fact whilst the uk is generally self sufficient in eggs they were rationed in the war because of the lack of feed for the chickens.

Plus the laws of supply and demand mean that as people switch and buy different things, the price goes up anyway.

What fear mongering.

Pasta and bread are low in nutrients (so we won't be malnourished if we have less) and are also relatively low cost items. Even if they go up in price by 50%, it will represent a few pounds more at the checkout, not doubling overall costs.

Not good at all but it's not responsible to carry on as though people will starve.

People will adapt as they've done before.