How much are food prices going to rise?

[LoveCleanLaundry]

Feeling anxious about rising prices from all angles, but especially in terms of worrying about loved ones already having a hard time making ends meet.

The price hikes in energy seem to have estimates as to how much they will be - wondering if there are any similar educated guesses as what food costs will be over the next year or so?

Overall inflation is expected to rise 8% this year, so I’d expect around 10-15% at a worst case on food

You CAN control this by adjusting the mix if your diet : less wheat, less sunflower oil, more veg (which won’t be impacted so much), more meat free meals etc : I think a lot of us will be making changes

@DevonTF

As a farmer - it is not just the costs increasing, but the concern that there will not be enough food.

The cost of production is so high, that it is close to being unfeasible - electricity / diesel etc.

The cost of Nitrate / Fertilisers have increased to such a high level, that quite simply fields have not been fertilised - for grass or crops. The NFU are telling the government we are walking into a crisis.

I work in the food manufacturing business: I don’t think this is a realistic concern at all

We may have to adjust what we eat as a country, but this may not be such a bad thing

Also, for context: several raw ingredients (sugar, cocoa etc) have increased massively at times, we have all adjusted

Dd who has coeliac disease and therefore can’t have wheat was triumphant that her food won’t be affected. She’s already used to paying £3 plus for a tiny loaf of bread. Until I pointed out it’ll probably just get put up anyway to keep the price gap the same!

I agree making small changes could help a lot. Less meat, cheaper brands, more meal planning, more one pot meals, more bulk cooking and freezing.

I do feel sorry for those who won’t be able to do that, don’t have a freezer, can’t buy enough to bulk cook, etc.

One or two raw ingredients materially increasing in price due to shortages, civil wars, diseases etc.. is not the same as multiple major raw ingredients (wheat milk bread etc.) increasing massively at the same time (what is happening now).

There are no economic substitutes because too many foods are being hit at once.

All you can really do to minimise the cost is change your diet so that you consume ingredients that have not gone up so much in price.

@thefatpotato

We are in a fortunate position to not be struggling and I would like to start adding more to food bank donations.

What is the most effective way to do this? Buying extra tins of beans/tomatoes/boxes of pasta going through Sainsbos and popping them in the box on the way out? Cash to food banks?

You would be best contacting the food bank and asking what they need at the moment. Sometimes they can be overstocked with some items and very low on others.

We are a low income family. Fortunately, so far, have not had to use a food bank. One of the problems I’ve been finding is, that with people “cutting back”, there is a shortage of “value” items on the shelves. So, yesterday, no 22p Stockwell beans in Tesco, no 29p penne pasta etc and the next brand up (Tesco’s own) are so much more expensive. So my shopping was hugely more expensive. I have to say, I’m pretty worried the rising cost of living.

@thefatpotato

We are in a fortunate position to not be struggling and I would like to start adding more to food bank donations.

What is the most effective way to do this? Buying extra tins of beans/tomatoes/boxes of pasta going through Sainsbos and popping them in the box on the way out? Cash to food banks?

Please give a regular direct debit if you can. Then they can buy what they need. Or put it towards their increased fuel bill.

Interesting to see that oats have been selling out in Tesco. When they're in stock I notice the sell by dates are very lengthy so I will stock up on them.

DH is a finance guy for a supermarket group and he says its looking bad- and he is the master of underestimating and playing things down.

As PP said wheat products like pasta and bread look set to increase by 50%

Interestingly he said even with price increases, income is the same meaning that people are not spending any more so must be buying less.

thefatpotato
I believe the best thing is to donate money as individual food banks differ in what they need most. Some it's hygiene items , others it's protein based foods etc

op - they need to put their income into an online benefits calculator like many others are doing. surprising who and how much people are eligible for

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601685/Potato-pasta-prices-set-rise-50-cent-say-farmers.html

@lightand

op - they need to put their income into an online benefits calculator like many others are doing. surprising who and how much people are eligible for

The two in question I'm most worried about are both single with no children at home and not entitled to much.

One is waiting for a PIP decision after a major cardiovascular event, they can't work at all. But they get nothing at the moment apart from whatever basic universal credit is for 1 person.

They are very proud and I'm worried they won't ask for help

It is impossible to predict because even if there was a calculation to be done on future costs (and if anyone has one, let me know as I’ll invest wisely) you can’t predict what the market response will be. Suppliers might want to pass on costs, but the large supermarkets will drive a hard bargain and the full increase may not be passed on to consumers. No supermarket wants to be first to put their prices up as the budget supermarkets are chasing on their heels.

I dont know much about benefits, so I couldnt say whether they are both getting what they are entitled to.

If I were you, I would tell them millions of people in the Uk get some sort of help. Literally millions.

I work in a food wholesale and our chicken has just went up a blooming fortune. Oil also taken a hike as a lot of the grain comes from Ukraine and Russia

Another farmer here. I read last week that Irish and EU farmers are being asked to turn over some of their land to growing wheat as there will be shortages. Red diesel has doubled in price,so cultivating and harvesting will cost twice as much as it used too,and that's without the astronomical cost of fertiliser. Ironically,if we decided to turn over our grassland to crops,we wouldn't be able to use our own produced manure to fertilize it,as we aren't allowed to muck spread outside of certain dates,and that's too late for this year's harvest.

My dad ( 83) and I were discussing whether food shortages/ prices rising will affect the current fad of 'carbon offsetting' and tree planting on productive farmland.

The Times is reporting to expect a 50% increase on things like pasta. Europe relies so heavily on the Ukraine and Russia for wheat and barley (1/3 of the worlds supply). Similarly the Ukraine is the worlds largest supplier of sunflower oil (200,000 tonnes per month). Exports have been banned for corn, oats, buckwheat, millet, sugar and salt at present but we don’t know how things will play out.

British farmers have been drilling Spring wheat and barley but it likely won’t match the shortfall. Paired with increase fuel prices you are looking at good rises across the board. Extra wheat and barley means something else won’t be grown.

It really shows the importance of food security and it is a great time to support your local farmers to produce food for the nation, not plant trees on productive farmland.

Another farmer here.

It's ok, Defra reckon we don't import most of our food so we'll be fine.

I'm concerned. Really concerned. We trade in a world market. Fertiliser is up from £280 a ton 18 months ago to £1000 plus a ton now. Fuel and electricity is doubling. There's a drought in Kansas. If the world wheat price rises so does soya, beans etc. we are not immune to that in the uk.

We urgently as a country need to wake up and plan for this.

@TheFnozwhowasmirage us too. It won't but it should. The radio adverts tell me it'll be great, plant a hectare of trees and get £10k! Yes as an industry we need to do more to combat climate change but our current policies are borne of full stomachs.

I think some items will double. Fertiliser has tripled in price. Red diesel is going up.
I’m going to save as much as I can.

@BoredZelda they won't be able to avoid it. They will have to pay world market prices in order to actually get the product.

We need to become more self sufficient in food production as a nation. Relying on imports is dangerous.

@thefatpotato

We are in a fortunate position to not be struggling and I would like to start adding more to food bank donations.

What is the most effective way to do this? Buying extra tins of beans/tomatoes/boxes of pasta going through Sainsbos and popping them in the box on the way out? Cash to food banks?

Standing order to Tressell Trust. Easier for you, better for them.

they won't be able to avoid it. They will have to pay world market prices in order to actually get the product.

@flowerycurtain, you clearly haven't been paying attention to how the large supermarkets negotiate with suppliers. For a long time they have been complaining that the supermarkets drive down the prices in negotiations and because these suppliers have competitors, if they walk away, they know there will always be someone willing to supply for a lower price. They pass on costs to suppliers rather than passing them on to customers. The problem was so bad that about 6 years ago, there was a code of conduct drawn. But, supermarkets only sticks to them if it suits them.

The supermarkets also have delay tactics to avoid paying suppliers for increased prices. www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-chain/delay-tactics-from-supermarket-buyers-slowing-supplier-cost-price-increases/661526.article

@QueenOfHiraeth

Can I just say as an old gimmer, who has lived through times of inflation before, it sounds terrifying but you will cope. It sounds really trite but you find ways to economise and save that you never knew about before so please don't let these predictions worry you too much

Thanks for saying this