To think a recession is looming?

[GrannyBloomers]

I was quoted £2 a litre for heating oil. £1000 for 500 litres, a matter of weeks ago it was roughly a quarter of the price.

Energy bills set to be £3k per annum - potentially more when a new price cap comes in in October.

Diesel near me is 171p and rising.

I'm in a 3 bed semi, nothing special. I need at least 1500 litres of oil a year (it runs the hot water too). That's say £3k. No gas but electric. I'm doing ok with cutting use = £1.5k per annum.

That's 4.5k at todays prices for household power. What will it be in October - 6k, 9k more?

This is before other costs increase - food will go up when the cost of storing it (refridgeration etc uses energy) and transport also increase.

If all the average person's income is spent on rent/mortgage/ bills and energy, then there's no money to spend on anything else. No eating out, no leisure, no holidays.

Surely a huge recession will follow.

And what if a much higher proportion of people need benefits?

I don't remember the hoover advert ancient gran. But I do remember the twin tub with a spin dryer. Before that it was done in the outhouse in a copper and I remember the iron mangle in there too. In later years my gran used the copper to make brawn!

However I digress because what I meant to say was that the linens were sent to the laundry every week and returned laundered and pressed and wrapped in pink striped paper.

@Blossomtoes

Outside of this thread, I don’t see anyone around me cancelling Netflix/holidays/whatever, they’re just carrying on and seeing what happens

How do you know that? Nobody I know discusses the detail of their finances with me. I just know what we’re doing - and we’re cutting back because the rise in fuel costs has left us with no choice.

I can’t speak for others but yes, those around me are often discussing the current situation and its impact. It’s a perfectly normal conversation

I’m giving up with this thread because by comments such as ”Things will be worse rather than better in 'a couple of months time' and much worse by Autumn/ Winter” (which is in no way a guarantee, even if a reason for this hyperbole was given) and ”The only tools available to governments to ease inflation are interest rates and reducing quantitative easing. Both of which pretty much guarantee a market correction and house prices falling” (which is to assume inflation is the only issue to be dealt with which is patently not true and it ignores other steps that have already been taken such as council tax rebates, possible scrapping of the NI increase etc, never mind whatever else the govt could come up with), it’s clear that some people only want to hear bad news. Well, you’re welcome to it..

@BrightYellowDaffodil "which is to assume inflation is the only issue to be dealt with which is patently not true and it ignores other steps that have already been taken such as council tax rebates, possible scrapping of the NI increase etc, never mind whatever else the govt could come up with"

Oh dear. You don't know what you're talking about do you?

We're a high income household- 2 full time incomes and six figure gross salary between us. 40% LTV mortgage, a small loan from kitchen Reno last year and wrap around child care costs so we have felt very comfortable for a whole now. We've made some conscious decisions recently to not buy things or eat out because we can already feel the pinch- shopping up by £30 a week, petrol up by £40 a week (long commutes) and gas/electric about to increase by £130 a month. That's over £400 a month increase just on the necessities. I really feel for those who don't have a buffer- that was us in 2008 and it was hard. We have started donating several bags a week to our local food bank; demand is through the roof.

@RosesAndHellebores

I don't remember the hoover advert ancient gran. But I do remember the twin tub with a spin dryer. Before that it was done in the outhouse in a copper and I remember the iron mangle in there too. In later years my gran used the copper to make brawn!

However I digress because what I meant to say was that the linens were sent to the laundry every week and returned laundered and pressed and wrapped in pink striped paper.

Oh that sounds posh, I'd quite like to send the linens out and get them back in pink striped paper.

I found mangles fascinating for some reason, it's a wonder I never lost my fingers as I loved playing with them. Not much fun for the poor women using them though.

[quote ledbydonkeys]@BrightYellowDaffodil "which is to assume inflation is the only issue to be dealt with which is patently not true and it ignores other steps that have already been taken such as council tax rebates, possible scrapping of the NI increase etc, never mind whatever else the govt could come up with"

Oh dear. You don't know what you're talking about do you?[/quote]
I’d ask what you mean, since there ARE more facets to the cost of living crisis than just inflation and there ARE steps than can/have been taken to reduce its impact, but since you want to be rude as well as miserable and only wanting to hear that which fits your equally miserable narrative, I shan’t bother.

@Blossomtoes

Inflation is projected to be 4% by the next uprating period (Sept 2022 CPI) This means state pension gets uprated by that number 4% (at the minimum).

Maybe. You clearly have far more faith in the government that made a manifesto promise that it would retain the triple lock than I have.

That won't actually be in anyone's pocket until April 2023 and lots of people will be in a bad position long before that. The 3% next month doesn't seem to cover the last year's increases to me, I think in January they said it was over 5% and I don't think it has got any better.

In April we have the council tax rises, gas/electric rises so I don't reckon the 3% will go anywhere near to covering it. We have two pensions and DHs DLA so we will get by but I think some people are going to really struggle.

@BrightYellowDaffodil 'I’m giving up with this thread because by comments such as ”Things will be worse rather than better in 'a couple of months time' and much worse by Autumn/ Winter” (which is in no way a guarantee, even if a reason for this hyperbole was given) and ”The only tools available to governments to ease inflation are interest rates and reducing quantitative easing. Both of which pretty much guarantee a market correction and house prices falling” (which is to assume inflation is the only issue to be dealt with which is patently not true and it ignores other steps that have already been taken such as council tax rebates, possible scrapping of the NI increase etc, never mind whatever else the govt could come up with), it’s clear that some people only want to hear bad news. Well, you’re welcome to it..'

Actually, a reason was given for my comment. It is part of the very same sentence but you chose to cut off the section. Here is the whole sentence. Energy price cap rises further in AW which coincides with when people need to heat their houses.
I'm not sure how to respond to the rest of what you have said except to say that £200 off some people's council tax bills is clearly not going to compensate for all the current pressures. You seem to think that the government will pull all sort of white rabbits out of hats.

Things will be worse rather than better in 'a couple of months time' and much worse by Autumn/ Winter when even more energy price rises impact everyone

@ancientgran- I think your mention of people with disabilities is very valid and I don't find it at all offensive. Both DH and I have minor disabilities but are able to continue to work as we don't have physically demanding jobs. Clearly, others have much more severe disabilities and different types of jobs. It seems obvious to me that those relying on DLA won't be getting inflation linked rises in benefits (and in any case the inflation measures massively underestimate real inflation).

Recession looming - just praying WW3 isn't on the cards as well. Very worrying times!!

I think some people are going to really struggle

I agree. A whole new occupational pension will come into this household in June, it looks like being pretty much wiped out by cost of living increases. So we’re bloody lucky, hopefully we’ll break even. The spreadsheets on which we predicated our retirement are complete works of fiction now.

[quote rainingsnoring]@ancientgran- I think your mention of people with disabilities is very valid and I don't find it at all offensive. Both DH and I have minor disabilities but are able to continue to work as we don't have physically demanding jobs. Clearly, others have much more severe disabilities and different types of jobs. It seems obvious to me that those relying on DLA won't be getting inflation linked rises in benefits (and in any case the inflation measures massively underestimate real inflation).[/quote]
I hope you are OK. It isn't easy living with disability is it.

Had a heartbreak moment yesterday when he said, "I wish I could have one day without pain." Sometimes I forget about his pain, living with it for 30 years it is just how we live but that made me sad. 30 years and not having one day without pain is hard isn't it.

@Blossomtoes

I think some people are going to really struggle

I agree. A whole new occupational pension will come into this household in June, it looks like being pretty much wiped out by cost of living increases. So we’re bloody lucky, hopefully we’ll break even. The spreadsheets on which we predicated our retirement are complete works of fiction now.

Good luck, I hope it works out. I'm struggling as I have a part time job and I feel like I need to properly retire but it is a worry to drop our income by a few hundred a month. We can manage OK now but if I give it up I might be kicking myself this time next year. It is a dilemma.

[quote rainingsnoring]@BrightYellowDaffodil 'I’m giving up with this thread because by comments such as ”Things will be worse rather than better in 'a couple of months time' and much worse by Autumn/ Winter” (which is in no way a guarantee, even if a reason for this hyperbole was given) and ”The only tools available to governments to ease inflation are interest rates and reducing quantitative easing. Both of which pretty much guarantee a market correction and house prices falling” (which is to assume inflation is the only issue to be dealt with which is patently not true and it ignores other steps that have already been taken such as council tax rebates, possible scrapping of the NI increase etc, never mind whatever else the govt could come up with), it’s clear that some people only want to hear bad news. Well, you’re welcome to it..'

Actually, a reason was given for my comment. It is part of the very same sentence but you chose to cut off the section. Here is the whole sentence. Energy price cap rises further in AW which coincides with when people need to heat their houses.
I'm not sure how to respond to the rest of what you have said except to say that £200 off some people's council tax bills is clearly not going to compensate for all the current pressures. You seem to think that the government will pull all sort of white rabbits out of hats.

Things will be worse rather than better in 'a couple of months time' and much worse by Autumn/ Winter when even more energy price rises impact everyone[/quote]
I also had a good laugh when the poster said the Council Tax rebate would work.

This is the problem in the UK: absolutely daft tory ideologues willing to rubber stamp anytning the tory part does. No matter how spectacularly bad the policies may be.

These people don't have a clue about anything really and they unfortunately vote Tory every time.

You know what would really work right now?

1. Not raising NI in April 2022 (delay till April 2023)
2. Adding in the £20/week UC uplift till April 2023

These two changes would help absorb the energy price increases.

Both of those decisions are also operationally straight forward, and would help the folks on lowest incomes the most.

And do you know why they don't do this?

Because Sunak prefers to look better with the geriatric conservative party crowd than he does helping the lower income folks (who are really going to suffer the pain).

He is doing it purely for electoral gain. He wants to cut taxes in 2023 before the 2024 election, in order to then clear the way for his run at PM.

This is electioneering at its most cynical, and tens of thousands in the UK will end up paying the price for this in 2022.

@rainingsnoring I did see the rest of your post but the bottom line is that neither you nor anyone knows for absolute cast-ironed, copper-bottomed certainty what’s going to happen in the future. You have no guarantee of how high or low energy prices will be by autumn, whether the crisis will have passed or what interventions might have been taken. Or maybe you do know the future, in which case I’d like this week’s lottery numbers please.

Either way, there’s a lot of people here who just want to believe the worst. Crack on with that, then.

I also had a good laugh when the poster said the Council Tax rebate would work.

Then you’re assuming that the person to whom you’re referring votes Tory. Just because someone doesn’t agree with you isn’t an indicator of their voting preferences.

As I say, I’m stepping away from this thread now because it’s just pointless to engage.

@BrightYellowDaffodil

As I say, I’m stepping away from this thread now because it’s just pointless to engage.

Yes, I can see that if you’re determined to put your fingers in your ears and block out anything that interferes with your Pollyannaesque view of the world this would be an uncomfortable read.

Jesus @BambinaJAS, it comes as a huge shock to me, but I completely agree with you.

[quote BrightYellowDaffodil]@rainingsnoring I did see the rest of your post but the bottom line is that neither you nor anyone knows for absolute cast-ironed, copper-bottomed certainty what’s going to happen in the future. You have no guarantee of how high or low energy prices will be by autumn, whether the crisis will have passed or what interventions might have been taken. Or maybe you do know the future, in which case I’d like this week’s lottery numbers please.

Either way, there’s a lot of people here who just want to believe the worst. Crack on with that, then.[/quote]
Er, we do know that the energy price cap will rise further in October. Just have a quick google. The October rise will be based on current prices and current prices are high, as you know. Obviously no one knows the precise figure but we do know that the cap will rise.
It seems you prefer to ignore facts and the huge number of threads at the moment from posters who are clearly worried about all the price rises. But if you prefer to believe in Rishi and Boris's conjuring tricks, carry on. Personally, I have absolutely no faith in either of these characters to even attempt to help the people who need the help.

I think one is, lots of people are saying it will be worse than the 2008 one which is quite worrying