To think a recession is looming?

[GrannyBloomers]

I was quoted £2 a litre for heating oil. £1000 for 500 litres, a matter of weeks ago it was roughly a quarter of the price.

Energy bills set to be £3k per annum - potentially more when a new price cap comes in in October.

Diesel near me is 171p and rising.

I'm in a 3 bed semi, nothing special. I need at least 1500 litres of oil a year (it runs the hot water too). That's say £3k. No gas but electric. I'm doing ok with cutting use = £1.5k per annum.

That's 4.5k at todays prices for household power. What will it be in October - 6k, 9k more?

This is before other costs increase - food will go up when the cost of storing it (refridgeration etc uses energy) and transport also increase.

If all the average person's income is spent on rent/mortgage/ bills and energy, then there's no money to spend on anything else. No eating out, no leisure, no holidays.

Surely a huge recession will follow.

And what if a much higher proportion of people need benefits?

@Bringsexyback

Stagnant incomes are you freaking kidding me ? If people haven’t had a 7% pay rise this year you need to go and look for another job, if I don’t get another 7% in April I will leave and get another job at a 25% increase, id highly recommend other people do the same.

Now you really are being ridiculous!

@rainingsnoring yes - ridiculous AND incredibly naive. I stopped taking the pp seriously as soon as I read that.

[quote JesusInTheCabbageVan]@rainingsnoring yes - ridiculous AND incredibly naive. I stopped taking the pp seriously as soon as I read that.[/quote]
It took you that long?

@Blossomtoes

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/february2022

We have 250 vacancies in our organisation alone.

I feel your pain, we are also on oil, not on gas.
Bought 1000 litres a month ago at 64p a litre, and bulked at that, if gas prices for consumers more than trebled in a month they'd be uproar and frankly wouldn't be allowed with energy price cap.
But yes prices will rise and there might be a recession

@Elsiebear90

If I had a penny for every time someone has said “a recession is definitely going to happen” over the past 5 years I would have paid off my mortgage by now. I got told on here by so called “experts” three years ago I was wasting my money buying a house because “the house prices will crash and your house will be worth about half what you paid if not less”, it was complete bollocks. All that’s happened is house prices have gone up, I’m £250 a month better off than I was renting, and my equity has tripled in two years. Two of my friends didn’t buy a house because of this advice and prices have risen so much they can’t afford to buy anymore.

No one has a crystal ball, this is all conjecture and wishful thinking on some people’s behalf (thinking they will soon be able to buy a 250k house for 50k) and it’s stopping people living their lives.

The equity having tripled has meaning only in the now and here?

I think we all agree that property prices are at an all time (artificial) high, due to various factors.

Such a steep increase in two years is most likely a result of a temporary bubble; if you look at sold prices from 2006,2007 and compare those with 2009 (post the 08-09 recession), it does give you an idea of how property prices can actually fall
But, when and if there is a correction, then, what will be the property value?

Ultimately, property equity is not money-in-hand, unless you sell it or remortgage perhaps.

@Bringsexyback

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/february2022

We have 250 vacancies in our organisation alone.

And you think that anyone who fancies a pay rise can just stroll in and choose a job they like the look of, regardless of training, experience, location, personal circumstances...

I think if you don’t ask you don’t get given that there is the national actually no, not national there is a global skill shortage in every conceivable industry sector right now.

Nurses and teacher should be unionising and if you’re in the private sector you would never had an opportunity like this to improve your lot so instead of whingeing on Mumsnet take the bull by the horns

Good god, aren't you a treasure.

@JesusInTheCabbageVan

Good god, aren't you a treasure.

I’m not the one that started worrying about my gas and electric bill

Neither am I, but I'm capable of empathising with people who are.

Empathy isnt going to help them, practical measures might.

And your attitude most certainly won't. People who are struggling aren't stupid you know, they do realise there are higher paid jobs than theirs.

Incidentally, you're not offering 'practical measures'. You're offering condescension and contempt.

Wage growth in Q4 2021 was over 4% so if you aren’t getting a pay rise this year then it is worth considering looking for a new job, but obviously that is an average across all sectors and it won’t be possible for all.

@deadlanguage

Wage growth in Q4 2021 was over 4% so if you aren’t getting a pay rise this year then it is worth considering looking for a new job, but obviously that is an average across all sectors and it won’t be possible for all.

Well it’s definitely not happening in the public sector.

The public sector encompasses a lot of bodies whose pay is all set differently. I work in the public sector and most employees in my organisation are getting a pay rise of at least 4% or more depending on performance, some up to 20%.

There is so much rubbish being spouted on this thread.
No one has yet mentioned that the biggest purchaser of homes in the last 2 years globally are banks themselves. The law was changed recently so they are now able to compete with citizens to buy homes. Do you really think they would be buying at the rate they are if they think a house price crash is looming? Blackstone is the worlds biggest purchaser in 2021

There may be a dip but the types of crashes of 1992, 2008 are long gone. The economy is in a totally different state with government debt the highest it’s ever been and growing. Demand for homes far exceeds supply and couple that with cheap credit, means house prices will keep rising for the next few years yet. Land is also scarce which is propping up prices. Even if there was a recession, the young and renters still won’t be able to buy. It’s the cash rich who can take advantage in a recession. Banks tighten lending and LTV ratios need to be high

[quote JesusInTheCabbageVan]@rainingsnoring yes - ridiculous AND incredibly naive. I stopped taking the pp seriously as soon as I read that.[/quote]
@JesusInTheCabbageVanIndeed, no point trying to discuss with some people!

No idea what public sector department you work in but public facing ones like NHS staff and teachers are getting below inflationary increases as you are probably aware. No performance related pay there. Lucky you that this is available to you.

@deadlanguage

The public sector encompasses a lot of bodies whose pay is all set differently. I work in the public sector and most employees in my organisation are getting a pay rise of at least 4% or more depending on performance, some up to 20%.

I don’t believe that for one moment. Public sector organisations don’t use performance related pay and nobody funded by the tax payer is getting 20%.

It's pretty much a given is it not?
Increases in utilities, food and clothing - no additional tax revenue and wages frozen. Sounds like the start of one to me.

I think so absolutely everything is going up, from Food to Netflix, from Virgin media to gas and electricity. Now petrol and diesel prices. Just out of a pandemic and now this. Depressing as hell for most people that aren't rich

@deadlanguage

The NHS at least doesn't have performance related pay - as in you don't get more for performing higher. I can't imagine it is the same in education etc though in civil service that may be different.

The NHS has a pay scale that is fixed with no room to move. We don't get any more than a few % at most normally and certainly not 10%+.

Not all public sector bodies are funded out of general taxation. For example, the BoE, the FCA, FSCS, and the Financial Ombudsman Service are funded by industry levies. www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/governance-and-funding