Can Putin launch nukes at several NATO countries at once?

[AbsentmindedWoman]

Obviously, I am completely ignorant about everything to do with nuclear bombs but I have googled, and my tiny mind just doesn't grasp how this works.

In theory, could the UK/ US/ France/ Germany/ several other countries all suffer hits seconds apart?

Or would Putin have to choose one to be the first? How would he choose targets?

I understand the idea of mutual assured destruction if there are just two entities battling it out - but I don't understand how the dynamics of MAD work if it is Russia vs numerous countries, and Putin can only target one area at a time?

Is the nuclear capacity at his disposal really so huge he could take out many major cities and all military bases in Europe and the USA all at once?

@MissMarpleRocks

It was all fun fun fun in the 80s! Now we get to experience all that again. Lovely.

It really is like the 80’s again. Hopefully someone stops him first.

in the 80s I was more bothered about chernobyl, the culling of our radio active sheep, staying away from dairy for months/years, the rise of canadian cheddar and NZ lamb.

Well I suppose it's one way to stop covid?

You mustn't have been born working class in a mining town then.

No.

But had a British soldier point a gun in my face in Northern Ireland in very early 90s. Two other soldiers pointing at my female family members.

My teenage sister calmed me down, told me they didn't really have any bullets in the guns.

@Notanotherwindow

Time to move to Wales I think…

I hear Zanzibar is nice...

Shall we have a whip round for a minibus, do you think?

Am I stupid? I'm generally thought of as very intelligent and known for loving deep discussions, etc., but when it comes to stuff like this, I just can't see why it's worth pondering.

If anyone was mad enough to launch missiles, given the MAD principle, the world as we know it would be over. Nothing any of us on the ground do will change that. So why spend time worrying about it?

I'm really thankful that there are people whose jobs it is to think about these things and hide the red button advise leaders of the right course of action. I'm really thankful that the MAD principle is in place because it seems that is the biggest protection for us all. I am not going to change anything by worrying about it.

I thought this. Imagine if it was your dad you would be like come on dad calm down

"Here Dad, have a snickers. You turn into a right war monger when you're hungry"

If anyone was mad enough to launch missiles, given the MAD principle, the world as we know it would be over. Nothing any of us on the ground do will change that. So why spend time worrying about it?

I mean...it's concerning, yes. Of course it is.

But I honestly am not worrying about it. For the reasons you describe. Worrying or being upset is kind of pointless. So it's not really about worrying.

It's still fascinating to think about though! It's a very foreign world to someone like me, so there's the novelty factor of learning about things like nuclear weapons - but the really interesting bit is thinking about the likelihoods of outcomes from a behavioural point of view.

Imagine if it was your dad you would be like come on dad calm Down
Oh, I think you’d carefully avoid the topic, no one likes a family squabble – “we all know Dad goes off on one when we chat bombs, let’s just have a nice afternoon with the DC and talk about what’s for tea. Go on, Vlad Jr, show Grandpa your painting.”

in the 80s I was more bothered about chernobyl, the culling of our radio active sheep, staying away from dairy for months/years, the rise of canadian cheddar and NZ lamb.

Well, I was also worried about Chernobyl; but I was only ten, so please forgive me that nuclear war loomed a little larger in the imagination than the rise of NZ lamb

@1forAll74

I think that someone will try and take Putin out, if he carries on like this much longer. The everyday normal Russian people don't like what he is doing now. never mind all the other countries views of his lunacy.

The everyday Russian folk can't get to him obviously and the people surrounding him have already let him get to this point. The small group at the top could all be on the same page and unified in their thinking. Who's to say. We really haven't got a clue what's really going on and how it's all going to play out. I have a knot of anxiety in my stomach but you'd never know. I'm just getting on with my day cos what else can you do.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle

@AbsentmindedWoman

You mustn't have been born working class in a mining town then.

No.

But had a British soldier point a gun in my face in Northern Ireland in very early 90s. Two other soldiers pointing at my female family members.

My teenage sister calmed me down, told me they didn't really have any bullets in the guns.

And it wasn't political?!

Honestly as much as there is a risk it’s tiny, Putin cannot launch a missile on his own. He needs the support of his armed forces. As irrational as he maybe, it’s highly unlikely those military officials are as well.

They all know that if a nuclear weapon is launched Russia would fail to exist literally minutes later. It’s a mass genocide act against his own people. Putin isn’t looking to take Russia out of existence, neither are his military forces. That’s really not what they want and launching nuclear attack would mean Russia fails to exist, literally within mins.

Western leaders know this, that’s why they continue to take action.

I’m in London so I wouldn’t survive, which I’m glad about. I wouldn’t want to try and survive afterwards. If it were to happen there’s sod all I can do about it. So while the thought is in my mind, all I can do is carry on living life as normal. No point worrying.

Tbh even if he started dropping “regular” bombs on London I’d still stay put. I’m in my 50’s and really don’t have the appetite or energy to try and start over.

It’s a doomsday scenario because we have our own ballistic missile submarines. One is on patrol the entire time, which has the capacity to vaporise every town and city in Russia. However it was recently acknowledged, by us , the Americans, France, China and Russia that nobody could win a nuclear war. It’s called MAD , mutually assured destruction. Grim subject. It was something we thought we had put behind us with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. I would put it out of your mind.

@BettyBag of course it was political, yes.

But at 4 years old in the 80s I had no idea of the political context. It was just the universe I lived in. I mean, to be fair, that event was a notable low point, it was definitely not always like that but bits of day to day life were a bit fucked up in hindsight.

My political awareness took a few more years to develop...

@DressingPafe I’m half an hour from london by train and my main concern is that we wouldn’t be close enough to go in the initial blast! DH is going to London Thursday and Saturday and I’m tempted to take DC and go with him 🙈

VelvetChairGirl of course we worried about other things! But I was talking about specifically in relation to the current situation.

Interesting thread. Going back to my earlier point though- I'm still not sure if MAD would apply to every potential scenario. Say, for example, Russia launched a 'small' nuclear bomb on a tactically important location in a NATO country, not on a city. Or into the sea, as a PP mentioned. At this point, the rest of NATO has to decide whether to launch all it has at Russia, which would assure the death of absolutely everyone, or surrender, or try to find another way to deescalate the situation. I'm just not 100% convinced that, for example, the USA would really accept the death of all its citizens if there was another potential way out available. Ditto for any other NATO country.

I think MAD would obviously apply if any country decided to nuke multiple cities across several NATO countries. But I still think there are a lot of possible scenarios short of that that wouldn't necessarily result in MAD.

There might even be a tactical advantage in NOT retaliating. No leader would be able to keep up the pretense that their opponent was the aggressor if they made the first strike and nothing came back. What would then happen in the country once it became clear to absolutely everyone that their entire basis for war was invalid, wouldn't there be a possibility that the regime would be overthrown?

I'm sure I'm probably wrong, but I'm not sure I understand why I'm wrong 😆

@shreddednips

Interesting thread. Going back to my earlier point though- I'm still not sure if MAD would apply to every potential scenario. Say, for example, Russia launched a 'small' nuclear bomb on a tactically important location in a NATO country, not on a city. Or into the sea, as a PP mentioned. At this point, the rest of NATO has to decide whether to launch all it has at Russia, which would assure the death of absolutely everyone, or surrender, or try to find another way to deescalate the situation. I'm just not 100% convinced that, for example, the USA would really accept the death of all its citizens if there was another potential way out available. Ditto for any other NATO country.

I think MAD would obviously apply if any country decided to nuke multiple cities across several NATO countries. But I still think there are a lot of possible scenarios short of that that wouldn't necessarily result in MAD.

There might even be a tactical advantage in NOT retaliating. No leader would be able to keep up the pretense that their opponent was the aggressor if they made the first strike and nothing came back. What would then happen in the country once it became clear to absolutely everyone that their entire basis for war was invalid, wouldn't there be a possibility that the regime would be overthrown?

I'm sure I'm probably wrong, but I'm not sure I understand why I'm wrong 😆

You're thinking about it in the wrong way by imagining that the risks and benefits of this are about human life. They aren't. The moment Russia attacks a NATO country (even without nukes) and NATO doesn't retaliate NATO becomes pointless and Russia have won. Add nukes into the mix and its this on steroids. Russia rules the world as they are able to nuke with impunity.

Honestly it's just like having kids. If you tell your toddler if he hits his brother you will take his favourite toy from him. Then he hits his brother and you don't do it... Well we all know what happens.

Fuck I wish I hadn't opened this thread.

I have bad mental health issues and this has made me cry.

More fool me for opening it.

[quote AbsentmindedWoman]@BettyBag of course it was political, yes.

But at 4 years old in the 80s I had no idea of the political context. It was just the universe I lived in. I mean, to be fair, that event was a notable low point, it was definitely not always like that but bits of day to day life were a bit fucked up in hindsight.

My political awareness took a few more years to develop...[/quote]
I mean my political awareness amounted to Thatcher bad, miners good. Apartheid bad, Nelson Mandela good. Etc. But it was still there. People spoke about these things. I did have parents who were political though so I may have been exceptional but it seemed to be everywhere.

@Whattodoniw

Fuck I wish I hadn't opened this thread.

I have bad mental health issues and this has made me cry.

More fool me for opening it.

I have suffered with terrible anxiety over geopolitics in the past but this topic is the rare one were finding out more helped me. I am a bit nihilistic about it, its a highly unlikely scenario for all the reasons stated and in the event it does happen there is nothing to be done and you probably won't know it's happened anyway.

Interesting thread.....

I'm feeling as though I'm going slightly mad at the moment anyway, organising my DPs funeral, for 11th...... we grew up in the 70s and 80s and had many a conversation about it all. He actually quit the Air Training Corps and joined CND as a result of the "nuclear" drills and leaflets..... am kind of both sad and glad he's skipping out on this malarkey as we would have been having long and interesting conversations.... ah well, I can always whip out a ouija board if I go completely round the bend.

I get bonus points as my Dad is a nuclear test vet, and was part of the class action that the MOD fought so hard, because remember kids, British nukes don't harm people long term or from a distance...... ironically a study is currently allegedly being examined by the government that proves they do (cancers, birth defects etc). Will be just my poor Dad's luck if compensation is on the horizon and is then vaporized......

Last night my DS told me gently that apparently TPTB might be testing digital alerts across devices at some point and he didn't want me to panic if they did as I was on my last nerve with funeral logistics yesterday....bless him.....

So yeah, I think I've completely dissociated..... my playlist includes "I'm going slightly mad" by Queen .... any other good choices we can think of to boost morale?