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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Are we on the brink of war?

51 replies

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 06:31

Reading the headlines this morning & it sounds like a Ukraine invasion could happen at any moment.. It's very scary... Can't see any resolution, the Russians don't seem interested in negotiations..

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Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 09:38

Anyone?

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GaiusHelenMohiam · 14/02/2022 09:39

I think we are. And I’ve freaked myself out by reading about the build up to WW1 and the parallels here.

It’s all quite scary.

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 09:41

Same when I heard about "appeasement" & Hitler yesterday, it really hit home...

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meditrina · 14/02/2022 09:43

We aren't on the brink of war directly.

No one in going to fight Russia in the Ukraine.

But it's salami slicing tactics - what will,Russia gomfor next, and what is the point at which there is both the will to act and a decent chance of chosen action succeeding?

Chely · 14/02/2022 09:49

Because the media says we are? they are fear inducing wankers.

Itsnotover · 14/02/2022 09:50

No, I don't think so. Traditional wars are far less likely than in times past simply because they are more dangerous and destabilising than they would have been at the time of WW1.

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 09:53

But it's also the direct effect I'm worrying about.. The poor Ukrainians are going to suffer awfully... Even if a full scale war doesn't go ahead, it will be another excuse for energy & food imports to increase further (of course they'll blame the political instability in Ukraine for the increases & not Brexit)

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ToMockAKillingBird · 14/02/2022 10:02

Whilst food and energy prices have risen here, they've also rose substantially in Europe and indeed elsewhere, so although Brexit hasn't helped its certainly not the main reason.

I do think Putin is edging towards war. What form it will take, I'm not sure. The US Democrats seem to be itching for a war (imo.)

Scary times.

LaurieFairyCake · 14/02/2022 10:04

Nope - not at all

It's just brinksmanship

It's not a thing - just Willy waving

JackieWeaverHandforthCouncil · 14/02/2022 10:09

Nope. As PP said it’s Willy waving. War does not benefit anyone at the moment. At most we’ll have a cyber war which is pretty bad anyway but not a boots on the ground type of thing.

Aposterhasnoname · 14/02/2022 10:10

If by “we” you mean the UK, then no. Will Russia invade Ukraine? Not sure, the media love a good scare story, and people aren’t buying into the weekly “new covid variant gonna kill us all” stories anymore.

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 10:10

@ToMockAKillingBird

Whilst food and energy prices have risen here, they've also rose substantially in Europe and indeed elsewhere, so although Brexit hasn't helped its certainly not the main reason.

I do think Putin is edging towards war. What form it will take, I'm not sure. The US Democrats seem to be itching for a war (imo.)

Scary times.

I agree re the Americans, was watching CNN last night.. Why can't they keep their oar out even the Ukrainians are urging the media to back off a little..
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BuritoCat · 14/02/2022 10:11

No. There is loads of wars and conflicts happening all over the world, it's exactly the same.
Nobodies stupid enough to go to war with Russia.

Pulus · 14/02/2022 10:11

Ukraine is on the brink of war, UK is on the brink of some debates in parliament about how Russia shouldn't have done that and giving them a handful of sanctions.

notimagain · 14/02/2022 10:14

The papers are trying to do their worse with their headlines as usual…

The general feeling amongst those who have spent years in jobs/roles analysing in this sort of stuff seems to be:

1.Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, stopping at the Deniper or along a similar line…unfortunately that’s likely.
2.Russian invasion as far west as Kiev/take over the whole of Ukraine…not as likely.
3.Russians actively trying to engage any further west and entering into direct conflict with NATO forces…highly highly unlikely.

So potentially and undeniably a dire situation for many Ukrainians. Significant economic consequences beyond that for most of us but not a general war across the whole of Europe, which seems to be the way some in the press seem to want to spin it.

samsalmon · 14/02/2022 10:16

I agree it’s largely sabre rattling aka silly waving. Something will happen in Ukraine sadly but not enough to mean that everyone is involved. Any punitive actions would affect the Russian population as much as anyone and Putin does not need that.

samsalmon · 14/02/2022 10:17

*willy waving not silly waving, although same thing 😬

TheRealKaren · 14/02/2022 10:18

No, I don't think WE (UK) are on the brink of war. If Russia does decide to invade Ukraine, I doubt the UK will get involved. The reason for this is because The destruction that the two wars created (in multiple ways) has made other countries reluctant to become involved ever again. We also have WW3 threats every few years or so. I am sure in five years time, we will be having the same conversation.

GrumpyPanda · 14/02/2022 10:22

Academic here actually working on that part of the world although not a security/foreign policy or Ukraine specialist. First of all, "we" (I assume you mean NATO?) aren't going to war and that's always been clear.

Secondly, its far from clear there is going to be an actual invasion and all this isn't an extremely elaborate bluff, part of hybrid warfare designed to get exactly the reaction it's getting. It's clearly working too, all the discussions about possible concessions.

Important to think about what individual actors actually stand to gain or lose.. Biden and Johnson benefit as it distracts from the prior Afghanistan debacle/Partygate so there's an interest in playing things up. After Kabul, every Western government will implement CYA policies and tell expats to get out, but guess what, China etc haven't done that. In contrast, the Ukrainian government is downplaying the threat because hysteria is not in their interests.

And fourth point.. its not really clear whether any territorial gains would actually be in the Russian interest. Crimea had a huge strategic value for them. In contrast, invading then holding all of Ukraine would take enormous resources Russian can't really afford. As to the Donbass, they'd be crazy to - it's an economic basket case and a subsidies sink and it's no accident they never tried annexation back in 2014/15. What would be much better for them is implementation of the Minsk agreements, with a local puppet government as a substructure of the Ukrainian state able to exercise veto power on Ukrainian central state policies, all the while Ukraine coughs up for pensioners and suchlike. By the same token, Ukraine doesn't really want the Donbass back all that badly but of course, can't ever admit that.

None of that's a guarantee because it assumes people acting from rational self-interest, and the decision-making circles in Moscow have become very narrow and closed so nobody really knows what's going on. But probabilities are still quite different from what our media might make you think.

baroqueandblue · 14/02/2022 10:25

Who can honestly tell? With the various raised voices - politicians and media - making face-saving harder to cover, it's anyone's guess at the moment. And Ukraine is stuck in the middle of the brinkmanship, it's despicable. As for us here in the UK, we have just about zero experienced, considered, sane representation from our government, who as usual are in it purely for themselves. Vacuous Truss photo-opping all over Instagram every time she goes anywhere on govt business, and Johnson today trying to make it sound like anyone significant will listen to him as he tries to "pull Russia back from the brink." Yeh right. He's a joke internationally, nobody takes him seriously, whereas President Macron has made real headway with Putin but is being spitefully snapped at by our idiots-in-charge.

As someone writing in the Guardian put it yesterday : dismal.

scaredsadandstuck · 14/02/2022 10:32

@GrumpyPanda - that's really helpful and very interesting (even though I'm not sure I understand all of it properly!), thank you.

Kshhuxnxk · 14/02/2022 10:36

@GrumpyPanda thank you, very well explained!

baroqueandblue · 14/02/2022 10:39

@GrumpyPanda the cover-your-asses policy is very telling, especially if, as you say, certain other countries haven't felt concerned enough to implement it for their citizens resident in Ukraine.

lavenderandpillows · 14/02/2022 10:52

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Luredbyapomegranate · 14/02/2022 11:09

@Chely

Because the media says we are? they are fear inducing wankers.
I haven’t heard any traditional media saying we’re on the verge of war.

No we aren’t. It’s power play.