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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

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Original poster

Are we on the brink of war?

51 replies

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 06:31

Reading the headlines this morning & it sounds like a Ukraine invasion could happen at any moment.. It's very scary... Can't see any resolution, the Russians don't seem interested in negotiations..

OP posts:

balalake · 14/02/2022 11:13

I don't think we are on the brink of British troops being deployed. Whether Russia will invade another part of Ukraine, I think that is possible.

Linguini · 14/02/2022 11:17

The Russia/Ukraine thing is causing our gas oil and electric bills to increase extortionately because they've strangled the supply, So Russia are engaged in an economic war on us right now.

lumpofcomfort · 14/02/2022 11:27

Could all be brinkmanship but with Putin you can never guarantee that he won't go over the edge. MoD ministers have been expressing grave concerns. Even if UK doesn't actually involve troops in the ground, we are not Russian invasion of Ukraine would have serious consequences for European security (including cyber/economic security). UK is politically and financially supporting the Ukraine.

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 14/02/2022 11:33

The most bizarre thing for me is that the Ukrainian government are asking Biden to step back a bit and to dial the tension down, but no, Biden seems to have his own agenda there.

AngelicaElizaAndPeggy · 14/02/2022 11:35

Nah. It's a great story to help flog papers and generate clickbait. I do, however, feel that we are in for even higher fuel insecurity and prices and that is pretty scary too.

notimagain · 14/02/2022 11:58

@GrumpyPanda

Many thanks for that informative post.

Arsewangry · 14/02/2022 13:20

Putin's little speech about Russia's nuclear capacity was pretty chilling "there won't be any winners".

I know it's a lot of posturing but it's not encouraging.

baroqueandblue · 14/02/2022 13:26

Truss and Johnson each chairing Cobra meetings in the next 24 hours.

Why doesn't that inspire confidence? No doubt her main aim will be a pic in a new hat, and his... well, let's see if he turns up first.

MorningStarling · 14/02/2022 13:28

How are you defining "we" in this?

If you mean Ukrainians, yes we're on the brink of war. If you mean Russians, we're on the brink of liberating the Ukrainian people from their western leaders and returning them to their homeland.

If you mean the rest of Europe, no, we're not on the brink of war. Europe isn't interested in a fight with Russia because Russia has many more nuclear weapons than the rest of Europe. The UK's response is limited to a single submarine that can retaliate against Moscow but hardly cause widespread devastation (millions will die but Russia is massive).

If you mean the US... potentially. I can't see any pre-emptive action from Biden but given his popularity is plummeting it's possible he'll use the age-old trick of war as a distraction from his incompetence at home. The US generally aren't interested in another foreign war, but maybe against the old enemy the population will be swayed. Most Americans have been brought up fearing the USSR and communism generally.

The only people who will start a war/liberation are Russia though. The ball is in their court. So are the weapons.

PS If you meant "we" to mean the whole of humanity, yes, we're always on the brink of war .

TheReluctantPhoenix · 14/02/2022 13:30

Russia will take the bit of Ukraine they want (the Russian speaking part) and leave the rest.

The West will appreciate Putin’s restraint and we will continue to buy Russia’s gas and launder money for Putin and his cronies.

Clearly the above is just my opinion, but I am not sure what Putin would gain from a full scale invasion, other than holding a hostile country and being personally inconvenienced.

Sportslady44 · 14/02/2022 13:51

If there is a war then all our holidays will be off as planes wont fly etc.

BeyondMyWits · 14/02/2022 13:59

Will there be Russian boots on Ukranian soil... yes, probably.
Will there be a face to face all out on the ground war... probably not.

Skirmishes... probably.

Russian cyber attacks against anyone siding with Ukraine and imposing sanctions... you bet. Ditto frequent Russian incursions into our airspace/territorial waters.

It will all pass eventually. I feel sorry for those on the Ukrainian border.

notimagain · 14/02/2022 14:30

@Sportslady44

If there is a war then all our holidays will be off as planes wont fly etc.

A local war, even a big one, taking place well over 2000 km east of London isn't going to stop planes flying between the UK and the likes of the States, Caribbean and the western Europe or the Mediterranean.

Air traffic certainly didn't stop for either of the Gulf Wars or the Yugoslav conflict, except in or over those areas directly effected.

baroqueandblue · 14/02/2022 14:45

But @notimagain isn't the difference with this situation that Russia might launch cyber attacks which could potentially make flying unsafe for everyone, including those on the ground? The impression I get is that they're equipped to cause chaos like that, and if the UK is supporting Ukraine (ie. the US) then we would presumably be targets.

DdraigGoch · 14/02/2022 14:54

@Sportslady44

If there is a war then all our holidays will be off as planes wont fly etc.

Every cloud has a silver lining, I suppose. Fewer flights is no bad thing.

DdraigGoch · 14/02/2022 14:59

The Russians will use salami tactics. Claim that they were attacked first (where have we heard that before?). They've already used Russian troops posing as local rebels to take Ukrainian territory. The west will sit there and watch Ukraine be divided into Russian territory and a puppet government for the rest.

jcyclops · 14/02/2022 15:31

I can't see similarities to WW1, but the Winter War (First Soviet-Finnish War) is remarkably similar. Soviet security concerns over the Leningrad area led to demands for land from Finland, followed by invasion in November 1939. Despite the Fins initially inflicting significant losses on the Soviets, it ended in March 1940 with Finland giving 10% of its territory to the Soviet Union.

Putin's positioning and the response of Western nations (some weapons but mainly all talk and sanctions) is almost a re-run of what happened then. Russia wants the eastern provinces of Ukraine as part of Russia, and may want a Russian friendly puppet regime in the remainder of Ukraine similar to that in Belarus. I feel that Russia will get what it wants.

Arsewangry · 14/02/2022 17:10

notimagain · 14/02/2022 17:43

@baroqueandblue

But *@notimagain* isn't the difference with this situation that Russia might launch cyber attacks which could potentially make flying unsafe for everyone, including those on the ground? The impression I get is that they're equipped to cause chaos like that, and if the UK is supporting Ukraine (ie. the US) then we would presumably be targets.

Interesting point.

If you think about how reliant the military are on the Air Traffic system (which is generally a combined civilian and military operation with a lot of shared infrastructure) I think it would be a fair bet to assume that it is to some degree hardened against at least some of the stuff the Russians might get up to.

IMHO at absolute absolute worse you might see a reduction in flights at times, and perhaps the odd complete short shutdown in certain areas/regions, but I don’t think really think there will be a long duration total industry shutdown, but as I said that’s just a IMHO.

TBh if the situation got so bad there was a complete shutdown of aviation then worrying about holidays and/or the cheering on the benefits to the environment of such action might be the least of anybody’s concerns….there would be much bigger things to worry about.

WellingtonBoot · 14/02/2022 18:29

Just for numerical comparison, the number of Russian troops on the Ukraine border is pretty much exactly the total of every single soldier in the entire British Army plus every single soldier in the Army Reserves.

Original poster

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 20:07

Just following the news there & it doesn't sound good, Britian sending small no of troops to Lithuania..

OP posts:

Original poster

Southerngal5 · 14/02/2022 20:12

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/14/ukraine-russia-putin-latest-news-live

Link to live updates, the Ukrainian presided is expecting the invasion Wednesday 😩😢

OP posts:

Tallerthanmost · 14/02/2022 20:32

Thatcher, major, Blair,....... They all created / fanned the flames of a conflict when their approvals looked sketchy. I can see how this would help Boris and Biden.

Tealightsandd · 14/02/2022 20:37

@Linguini

The Russia/Ukraine thing is causing our gas oil and electric bills to increase extortionately because they've strangled the supply, So Russia are engaged in an economic war on us right now.

Perhaps Biden can sell us some American gas and oil cheap, to help us out for being an ally?

Tealightsandd · 14/02/2022 20:41

Although of course let's also hope lesson learnt wrt the importance of self sufficiency (as much as possible).

Regardless of Russia, Ukraine, or anywhere else, we need to invest in our own natural resources - instead of the currently less environmentally friendly importing. (Obviously also continue green energy investment but until we're ready to completely switch, the fossil fuels we use should be our own).

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