What's the alternative to Afghanistan situation?

[afghanistanwhatnow]

NC as don't want this linked to other posts - have a feeling I'll get flamed as I have little knowledge about politics so sorry in advance!

I've read quite a lot about this situation but what I'm struggling to understand is what else could have been done? Every news article and news piece talks about the tragedy (and I agree it's tragic) but not once have a I heard any viable solutions - only criticism of the government.

I'm genuinely interested to know what solutions Biden may have had to this situation and chose to ignore?

We cannot stay in Afghan forever - and then where do you draw the line? How many other countries should we help to this extent (as there are many other corrupt/terror threat countries too)

What's the alternative?

But the Taliban didn't commit 9/11? That was al-Qaeda. I agree with the general point you're making but my understanding is that the Taliban have always been quite inward looking.

On the next day after 9/11 the US asked Taliban to stop harbouring Al Qaeda and they could be in power. Taliban said no so they were removed.

This was from listening to a US spokesperson who was very clear with his view. Not sure if there are other views.

Re op he stated the objective was to act as insurance against future extremism. He was very critical. Also re getting government / army to strong enough position, it’s not happened after 20 years - what would do it?

The mistake was announcing a leaving date. The Afghan army, who vastly outnumbered the Taliban, were as well prepared as they could have been, they’ve had twenty years of training and tens of billions of pounds of equipment.

In most places they didn’t fight, they left their weapons. Many hadn’t been paid for months, we’re tired and hadn’t got enough food etc… a fault of the Afghan government. America have been giving them billions to pay their army but it clearly wasn’t getting to the actual people.

The Taliban have been waiting it out for twenty years, they’ve always been pretty upfront that it was there plan.

I’d also add that Afghanistan was a modern nation for many years until the Afghan war, not everyone wore mini skirts like the famous pictures but there was the opportunity for women to choose without fear of flogging or death.

DH and I were talking about this earlier about the reports that 5 of the Taliban leaders were in Guantanamo Bay, one for 8 years.

After binge watching Homeland over the last few weeks, we were kind of hoping they had managed to ‘turn’ them, like the Nick Brody character but in reverse, as the US knew they couldn’t stay in Afghanistan forever and as soon as they left the Taliban would resurge so try to ‘re-educate’ them to be more moderate and be taken seriously as government thus avoiding sanctions and having a place on the world stage. Probably CIA agents among them?

Maybe explains reports today that they are moult going to be the same Taliban as before and they have not already started bombing the place.

The atrocities that started up seemed to be in smaller villages (taking young girls/executing soldiers) Perhaps village Taliban sympathisers thinking they can get away with it now before they could be put in their place?

Probably been watching too much TV but you can hope.

What source are people using as the basis to declare that the "majority" of the population of Afghanistan supports the Taliban? Today, not in the 1990s when they first appeared and hadn't started terrorising the population yet.

Looking at the killings last year, I see a population being terrorised, not one that supports it:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56157627

Would posters make the same claims about Cambodia and the Khmer Rouge? They seized control of Cambodia in 1975 so would posters say that the subsequent genocide was with the support of the population because it was perpetrated by people with power?

Having power and having consent or support are different.

Also, what's the source for declaring that the government forces have joined them? They surrendered to avoid civilian casualties, that is not the same as joining them.

@AnonymousA

DH and I were talking about this earlier about the reports that 5 of the Taliban leaders were in Guantanamo Bay, one for 8 years.

After binge watching Homeland over the last few weeks, we were kind of hoping they had managed to ‘turn’ them, like the Nick Brody character but in reverse, as the US knew they couldn’t stay in Afghanistan forever and as soon as they left the Taliban would resurge so try to ‘re-educate’ them to be more moderate and be taken seriously as government thus avoiding sanctions and having a place on the world stage. Probably CIA agents among them?

Maybe explains reports today that they are moult going to be the same Taliban as before and they have not already started bombing the place.

The atrocities that started up seemed to be in smaller villages (taking young girls/executing soldiers) Perhaps village Taliban sympathisers thinking they can get away with it now before they could be put in their place?

Probably been watching too much TV but you can hope.

Or they're worried about foreign currency outflows and loss of critical skilled persons from the economy, without both of which the country would become completely ungovernable.

Consolidate now, purge later.

I think the issue isn’t about withdrawal from Afghanistan, it’s the way is was handled. Trump and Pompeo signed a deal with the Taliban in November 2020 that the US would withdraw. In return, the Taliban agreed not to harbour international terrorists. The mistake that Biden made (and it pains me to admit it was his and not Trumps) was to pull out all US troops before pulling out Afghan staff, embassy staff, NGOs etc. They knew this was on the cards for a long time. Biden and Johnson/Raab hoped it wouldn’t happen for a few more months, but the writing was on the wall in June. 2 weeks ago I said to DH “the Afghan army aren’t resisting, the Taliban will be in Kabul any day”. If a layperson like me could see it, how the hell do politicians with an entire civil service, intelligence services, ambassadors and so on, how did they not see it and start evacuating last week?!

As to what more should have been done over the last 20 years… a lot more pressure needed to be exerted on Pakistan, whose military openly harboured the Taliban. Not installed puppet Presidents, corrupt and hated by all ordinary Afghans. Had a government with more representatives from a wider-range of provinces and ethnic groups. Invested more in modernising the countryside and the “soft-power” of building civil society outside of Kabul. Gained a better appreciation for Afghanistan’s tribal culture and realised that Pashtuns will fight for Pashtuns, Tajiks for Tajiks etc. Not expected Afghan soldiers who hadn’t been paid for months, to be sent to another part of the country and risk their lives for another tribal group who they have previously fought against.

We spent 20 years fighting an idea, but we failed to provide an alternative.

It’s incredibly naive to assume that the Taliban took power back by accident or that it was some abrupt incident that no one saw coming. Really? Are we really so blind to what’s so obvious. Nothing, but nothing happens by accident. Everything has turned out exactly the way it was intended. This is nothing more than handover of power from the Americans to the Taliban. A peaceful handover at that.
This war made a lot of people a lot money, not least the defense contractors and those companies involved in so-called infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. Those were American tax dollars. Some tax dollars went to lining the pockets of the incompetent, corrupt government made up by rats who ran as soon as they saw that handover of power was happening. The US govt will talk to and work with the Taliban in the coming weeks and months. As will every other government. This is a transition of power, not a taking of power.

As much as people are saying that it’s a tragedy, the reality is that the majority of people want the Taliban in force.

Can you back up this very definitive statement? Because I don't think it's true. The screenshots below are from this link which comes from an independent think tank: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/taliban-afghanistan

We could have left the country as it was with its warlords and tribal society and not got involved.

@memberofthewedding

We could have left the country as it was with its warlords and tribal society and not got involved.

That's a bit harsh

When there is poverty, there is the drive to do whatever it takes to feed house self and your family

Evil people, such as the Taliban, are able to exploit those living in poverty- either by forcing them to do things they don’t want to (otherwise they’ll kill them) or by offering them a lifestyle which gives them the means to support their family eg grow/transport drugs (exactly same happens in Central America where poor farmers make far more money from growing drug industry plants rather than food)

Obviously there is the whole religious fanatic aspect too. So Saudi Arabia needs to be tackled as they are ruled by despotic billionaires who have basically allowed the Wahhabi (extreme Sunni) clerics to enforce strict Sharia as long as royal family can do whatever they want (it also helps that the royal family remunerate the clerics handsomely). Part of the deal With the clerics is that the Saudi royal family funds extremism in other countries such as Pakistan and Afghanistan.

And then you also have to consider that Pakistan has huge control over Taliban (well Taliban have huge control over Pakistan) and Pakistan are supported by Chinese (who helped them develop nuclear weapons) as the Chinese don’t like India and Pakistan want Kashmir from Indian government and Russians are friends with India so they are happy to help Indians support Afghans to continue to make life hard for Pakistan.

So a combination of legalising drugs (removing Taliban main source of income), remove the al-Saudi family as rulers of KSA thereby slowing the spread of islamism, sort out Kashmir. Make friends with Russia and China so both countries stop using Afghanistan as a pawn in their games.

So really straightforward

(Please note though I have taken a slightly flippant tone, thisnisnnotnbecause I think this is in any way funny. It is a desperate situation and frankly I don’t know how it can be solved as it has so many aspects to it (and there will be many, many more I’ve not mentioned*). But going back to my opening sentence, reducing poverty ie fairer distribution of wealth has to be the end game. Which means reducing wealth of the extremely rich. Which won’t happen.

*Other factors I may have missed: extremist Christians in USA, Israel (this gives every extremist Muslim a “cause” that justifies their actions), security of water….etc etc

Caveat: I am a complete history/politics amateur but the only books I read relate to Middle East/Afghanistan/Iran. The other country which we need to feel very sorry for now is Lebanon. There is too much sadness, too much cruelty and too little compassion and empathy.

@memberofthewedding

We could have left the country as it was with its warlords and tribal society and not got involved.

it wasn't just warlords - it was the Taliban back then too - doing exactly what they are expected to do now/do in the areas they rule.

The mistake that Biden made (and it pains me to admit it was his and not Trumps) was to pull out all US troops before pulling out Afghan staff, embassy staff, NGOs etc.

This. At the very least, visas should have already been issued beforehand to the people who worked with US/UK forces. Ideally, they, their families and other people at high risk would already have been taken to a safe country.

Politicians were apparently shocked at how quickly the Taliban took over Kabul, but even their estimates were that it would take less than 6 months. Even if these estimates had been correct, I can't see how they could have processed enough visas in those six months, with fighting going on around them. This all should have been done ahead of time.

@alwayswrighty

I'll be honest, I have no idea either. Having said that I think we should never have poked the hornets nest originally but as none of us are privy to the full picture I doubt we'll be able to recommend a course of action either way.

Trouble is that it wasn't even us who poked the hornets' nest. Afghanistan was actually quite a free place prior to the 1978 communist coup d'état. The resulting civil war and the Soviet invasion which followed turned the country into a hotbed of extremism.

As much as people are saying that it’s a tragedy, the reality is that the majority of people want the Taliban in force.
@AlternativePerspective what utter tripe. The majority do not want the Taliban, they fear them. Afghan soldiers deserting and defecting are doing it out of cowardice after seeing what happens to those who stay and fight.

@afghanistanwhatnow

"memberofthewedding
We could have left the country as it was with its warlords and tribal society and not got involved.
That's a bit harsh

+++++

Why is that harsh? The reality is that it was never realistic to try and democratise a tribal society especially in 20 years. And besides trying to impose a Western model and values (of democracy, rule of law, female equality, freedom of speech etc etc) on to another culture is naive, patronising and mildly racist (I.e we know what's best for you).

Sadly Afghanistan is one of those places that is best left well alone.

None of the alternatives are free of drawbacks. To my mind the options were:

a) Remain in Afghanistan for many years. I think that after a hundred years of occupation and education, the Afghans may have come to see that they were better off than under the Taliban. A century would have given time for the existing Taliban to have fizzled out. Over time, violent Islamism will fade away, just as violent Christianity faded away. Islam is a less mature religion, go back a few hundred years and Christians were burning people for witchcraft.

b) Bomb, bomb, bomb. Wipe out the Taliban. Obviously this will lead to deaths of innocent people too.

c) Accept the right of countries to choose to live in a non-democratic society where a religion trumps individual liberties.

I read somewhere that 14 out of the 19 9/11 terrorists were from Saudia Arabia.

It is a difficult situation and with no real solution. My view is that we never should have gone in. Thank you Tony Blair and Labour

I can understand why Jo Biden wanted out. How much longer should they have stayed. However his timing was awful. He wanted the American troops out by the very emotional 9. 11 anniversary. If he had waited and gone for a time during the Winter when the Taliban historically return to their homeland it might have been different

The UK could never have stayed without the support of the Americans as we don’t have the manpower

@jewel1968

I read somewhere that 14 out of the 19 9/11 terrorists were from Saudia Arabia.

True but the original issue was that Osama bib Laden (a Saudi National) was based in and hiding out in Afghanistan. After 9/11 the US asked the Taliban Government to extradite him to the UK.

They were either unwilling to do this (maybe not wishing to send a fellow Muslim and former Muhajideen fighter to his execution) or unable to do so (because as a tribal nation the Taliban in Kabul had no control over whatever region he was in and whatever tribe controlled that area).

Anyway the US still hurting from 9/11 rather naively said hand him over or we will come in to get him and overthrow the Taliban as well.

And that is how it all started and went downhill from there.

Ironically Bin Laden was subsequently found and killed in Pakistan.

The mistake that Biden made (and it pains me to admit it was his and not Trumps) was to pull out all US troops before pulling out Afghan staff, embassy staff, NGOs etc.

This. It’s the sheer incompetence of it all that makes me want to weep. All these people should have been removed to safety first. It’s not bloody rocket science is it?

The issue that isn't being widely reported is the Afghan army on the ground relied heavily on American air protection and the use of some of their equipment. Biden pulled it and left them massively exposed.

What I don't understand is.. Why did no one know they had not been paid, we knowing now soon enough so why not weeks ago?

Erno and your quote yes!

It's that simple.

Biden tried to say they had contingent plans and had troops near by

Those troops took days to get to the airport, that narrow window has gone now, they arrived too late to secure it before taliban Road blocks

@Errno

The mistake that Biden made (and it pains me to admit it was his and not Trumps) was to pull out all US troops before pulling out Afghan staff, embassy staff, NGOs etc.

This. It’s the sheer incompetence of it all that makes me want to weep. All these people should have been removed to safety first. It’s not bloody rocket science is it?

++++

This was proposed by the US and other countries but the then President Ghani refused to allow this because he felt that if Afghan interpreters, support staff etc were seen being evacuated from the country then this would demoralise the military and the Afghan Govnt and make it easier for the Taliban to take over. Which happened anyway.