AIBU to say Covid infections are falling

[Gladiolixoxo]

Because less testing is being done in school summer holidays? As children are required to regularly test for Covid at school, a large number of positive Covid tests are generated in term time. Seems no coincidence that reported positive Covid tests have dropped as soon as school holidays start?

YANBU- I'm sure that the rate of Covid is going up but the rate of testing is going down!

I broadly agree. As someone who had to cut short a holiday last week, I feel quite sure there are people simply ignoring any symptoms so they can travel. Ignorance is bliss!

Personally I think its cos schools have broken for Summer.
Ours finished over a week ago, I think schools are the biggest drivers for infection so I assume it will continue to fall until schools open again in Sept.

The trend started before many schools in England broke up. Most broke up after "freedom day" and not all have yet although it is a small minority left.

No more European Cup drinking sessions is a factor.

But mainly improvements in vaccination rates and community immunity throgh exposure. The lowest rates in my city are the area with lowest vaccination rates...but the longest and usually higher rates of transmission most of the way since data started being collected, even through last summer.

Localised areas who were hit early in a wave usually peak before the effects of a wider intervention can be applied.

According to Robert Peston, the dashboard data also doesn't include anyone who has previously had covid (even if it was last year). If he's correct then there's a swathe of people missing from the reported data...

The numbers are lower than in reality - lots of people will be feeling a bit rough, maybe getting positive lateral flows and not bothering to register the result or confirm with a PCR. As they're not feeling particularly ill, especially if they've had one or both jabs, or previous infection, they also don't see a doctor or need hospital treatment, so they aren't included in the figures.

Testing is only down by 5% so it can't just be down to schools.

YABU - testing numbers have not fallen. See this graph

Around 10% lower for last Thursday (most recent data) comparing WoW:

22/07 - 1,013,261 tests
15/07 - 1,117,716 tests
08/07 - 1,114,234 tests
01/07 - 1,121,678 tests

Most infections like this tend to reduce during the summer holidays because schools spread stuff more. And as we build immunity to it it should reduce.

I'm sure it's a factor but its too simplistic to think that is the only or even the main reason, as @bellsbuss says if it was you'd expect a much lower decrease in test numbers

@MordredsOrrery I believe that Peston has explained that he wasn't saying that was a reason for the decrease and from what I understand from here has always been the case. I think he was misunderstood

Here's number of PCR tests for last 18 days

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Picture not shown up, classic MN. Anyway OP, testing data can be fine in the above link.

OP, this is so easy to check.
Nope, the 7 numbers of tests being processed hasn't fallen significantly. It's still well over a million a day. The 7 day average is still over a million a day. All the figures are on the govt dashboard for anyone who cares about accuracy, as opposed to advancing their little pet theories.

If that was the case you’d expect to see rates falling in school-age children but staying high in other age groups. Is that what’s happening?

@caughtinanet I haven't seen his clarification tweet so will go and check it out. Although I thought the point wasn't that it's the cause of the decrease, but that the infection rates have been higher all along?

I think (clearly I’m not a health professional ) that it’s a combination of school holidays, the summer meaning people are outside, vaccines and immunity and also lack of LFT reporting. I’m
Not sure I’d definitely get a PCR test if I had a positive LFT. I’d just self isolate (and would my household) if I felt ok.

I don’t know I don’t think it’s schools. Don’t forget when schools went back on the 8th March there wasn’t a big increase and in fact infections kept going down. So then more opened up from April. I think it’s from the big crowds from the euros that drove up this wave

The case rate has fallen much more steeply than the test rate.

It feels much more likely that there is an impact of schools starting to be closed (see also Scotland’s rate), coming out of an artificial football-related spike (supported by gender mix of cases) and of course the football spike was exacerbated by shite weather during the football.

This Friday’s ONS stats will be key to seeing how much of the drop is borne out in population data, and when the dashboard sorts out its shit we’ll be able to see the positivity rate which should point in one direction or other in terms of ‘just fewer tests but just as many/more cases’ or ‘cases actually dropping’.

And of course we’ll know better in two weeks. Hospital admissions are a much harder indicator.

Most kids were at school until Wednesday just gone. Maybe it's because the football is over?

They've been dropping since 18th roughly, most schools in ENGLAND weren't out at that point. Some only just breaking up. It's too early to attribute it to schools. And too early to get excited its truly dropping

@Littlecaf

I think (clearly I’m not a health professional ) that it’s a combination of school holidays, the summer meaning people are outside, vaccines and immunity and also lack of LFT reporting. I’m Not sure I’d definitely get a PCR test if I had a positive LFT. I’d just self isolate (and would my household) if I felt ok.

Do you work?

I wouldn't be able to not go to work on the basis of an unconfirmed LFT, I'd assumed that all employers would need a proper PCR result and I know my DCs school wouldn't be very happy if all contacts had to isolate when it could be a false positive and I refused to confirm one way or the other

Less high school children testing and more people ignoring symptom so they don’t have to stay home and miss holidays, events etc. Then schools are closed so children aren’t in huge groups.

@MordredsOrrery Meaghan Kall and others had good responses to Peston on this - not least that the data is published, but separately, and also that it’s a tiny proportion (below 1%) of cases so not massively influencing the figures.

Does anyone else have a sense of foreboding that they'll suddenly discover a heap load of positive results that haven't been counted in the data like they did last year when the back end spreadsheet maxed out on the number of rows???

Or is that too cynical?