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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to say Covid infections are falling

36 replies

Gladiolixoxo · 26/07/2021 16:37

Because less testing is being done in school summer holidays? As children are required to regularly test for Covid at school, a large number of positive Covid tests are generated in term time. Seems no coincidence that reported positive Covid tests have dropped as soon as school holidays start?

OP posts:
WildWestWanda · 26/07/2021 17:36

@MordredsOrrery

According to Robert Peston, the dashboard data also doesn't include anyone who has previously had covid (even if it was last year). If he's correct then there's a swathe of people missing from the reported data...
Who is Robert Peston?
JassyRadlett · 26/07/2021 17:48

@HalfShrunkMoreToGo

Does anyone else have a sense of foreboding that they'll suddenly discover a heap load of positive results that haven't been counted in the data like they did last year when the back end spreadsheet maxed out on the number of rows???

Or is that too cynical?

Honestly, when you look at the Scotland curve (while England was still rocketing upwards) I think it is too cynical this time. Smile
ATieLikeRichardGere · 26/07/2021 18:09

Today it looks the test positivity rate also fell.

It seems like a genuine fall which may be due to a combination of factors like the euros, schools, weather, progress with vaccinations and infection acquired immunity.

Whether it will last is a different matter though we have to hope so.

tallduckandhandsome · 26/07/2021 18:43

@Gladiolixoxo

Because less testing is being done in school summer holidays? As children are required to regularly test for Covid at school, a large number of positive Covid tests are generated in term time. Seems no coincidence that reported positive Covid tests have dropped as soon as school holidays start?
Not according to the chart @Duckyneedsaclean posted...
PumpkinPie2016 · 26/07/2021 19:01

Most schools in England finished less than a week ago so I'm not sure the fall in cases can be solely attributed to schools closing for summer. It may be contributing to some extent though.

Maybe people being outside more is helping reduce spread. Also, more people are being vaccinated every day and some will have immunity from a previous infection so both of those will contribute to less cases.

TotorosCatBus · 26/07/2021 19:25

Whitty said that the effect of Freedom Day would be clear 2-3 weeks after restrictions were lifted. I'd say that the football is the likely culprit. Weren't negative tests needed for attendance? What about summer holidays starting ?

JassyRadlett · 26/07/2021 19:28

Weren't negative tests needed for attendance?

The issue isn’t people in the stadium, it’s people shouting and hugging and singing and whatever else in pubs and each other’s homes - and given the weather a lot would have been indoors and probably not brilliantly ventilated.

caughtinanet · 26/07/2021 19:47

@JassyRadlett

Weren't negative tests needed for attendance?

The issue isn’t people in the stadium, it’s people shouting and hugging and singing and whatever else in pubs and each other’s homes - and given the weather a lot would have been indoors and probably not brilliantly ventilated.

The Euros final was over 2 weeks ago, with the shorter incubation time of delta we should be well past any effects from that.
AlternativePerspective · 26/07/2021 20:01

They need to stop publishing any of the data now.

The truth is that the publication of figures on a daily basis is just leading to increased speculation about something most of us know nothing about and which Only serves to increase the fear factor.

We have a flu epidemic every year but the actual daily figures are not published. Yet we should take precautions where possible not to come into contact with the flu.

COVID is here to stay. people are always going to catch it, and people are always going to die from it. It’s not a pleasant thought but it’s the reality.

We simply cannot keep publishing COVID figures on a daily basis. We know that COVID is here. We should still test for it, but we don’t need to know how many people have it, and tbh hospital admission data is pointless because for all we know an overnight stay would mean an admission, so doesn’t mean everyone going into hospital is going to end up on a ventilator or even in ICU.

Oh and, this thread needs to be in the COVID topic.

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 26/07/2021 20:32

Publishing the data means people can make informed decisions, they may choose to go to indoor places if numbers are low or stick to outdoors if high etc.

Can’t be compared to the flu as we don’t vaccinate everyone over 18 for that and young children can have the flu shot via a spray and can’t get be vaccinated against covid.

JassyRadlett · 26/07/2021 20:44

The Euros final was over 2 weeks ago, with the shorter incubation time of delta we should be well past any effects from that.

Yes, and that’s one theory why we’ve seen a decline in cases over the past five days or so. Average incubation of what, 4 days for delta?

By specimen date, the recent peak was 15 July. The Euros final was 11 July. It was shortly after the 15th that the really sharp fall started (by the 22nd cases by specimen date had just about halved - there may be some cases not included there yet but not that many).

Such a sharp fall off in cases suggests a major behavioural shift (or more likely shifts).

Such as millions of people not crowding into pubs and living rooms to watch the football while it’s raining outside. Such as better weather (though that seems fanciful without any other measures), such as schools starting to break up (though it feels early for that to be having such a sharp impact but of course schools have been steadily breaking up for a while). Plus class bubbles closing, ‘pingdemic’ (🙄) etc.

So it’s pretty noisy. But In all that, it’s hard to discount the impact of millions of people who were doing something pretty high risk for a couple of weeks suddenly stopping doing that thing, in a timeframe that maps so closely to the peak and rapid decline in cases.

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