To ask: will Johnson’s gamble pay off?

[foxandbee]

I thought it might be interesting to have a vote for posterity on how people think Johnson’s experiment will pan out. Personally, I have one or two reservations.

YABU - it’s going to be a great success and other countries will follow England’s lead.

YANBU – it will be a shit show with backtracking galore as well as many casualties of Johnson’s cavalier decision.

Clearly this is massive gamble, and chaos is already rearing its head again.

He is shitting himself as he's more exposed politically than any point so far.

Clearly 'nightclubs open now while 75% full vaccinated' is pretty wacky.

UK looks nuts, basically. USA is right - stay away!

Had an extra 'not yet' in there but hopefully the gist was understandable!

Johnson's gamble will definately, absolutely, 100% pay off.

Just not for us. For him.

His gamble is to do little, skim as much money as possible, cruise through and make more money after being PM. That gamble is a safe bet.

[quote HandleTheJandal]@BillyShears has it, in a nutshell. Here's a viewpoint from NZ:

thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/07/19/guest-blog-ian-powell-boris-the-barbaric-threatens-more-than-uk/[/quote]
The problem I have with NZ pontificating from what they think is their secure bubble is that it’s coming for them too. They’ve just delayed it. They probably don’t realise it just yet but the penny is dropping in Australia and it’ll drop for them too soon. They’ll need much higher vaccination rates than we have and more than they can realistically achieve unless they vaccinated absolutely everyone including children. The vaccines don’t stop you catching it but do seem to lessen severity but people will still get sick and die.
New Zealand aren’t exempt from this.
The question is what percentage vaccinated is enough which no one really knows yet.

@Pottedpalm

Yet another Boris-bashing thread in disguise. We should take responsibility for ourselves. I have been to a cafe/restaurant fo r lunch, to two garden centres and the post office/village stores today, and everywhere was carrying on as ‘normal’; masks inside, hand sanitising etc etc.

I don't need to disguise my Boris bashing. I think he's a dreadful leader. I can barely contain my loathing for him.

@Devondonkey

I’m not sure what the alternative is anymore. Zero Covid sailed last March. We’re seeing a jump in a whole range of viruses anyway because people haven’t been interacting. If that happened in winter, it would really bugger the nhs. We are where we are - and cracking on is really the only alternative.

but it's not - we could mitigate it a bit more, keep some, very few restrictions (masks, essentially) in place for longer, make sure those going to nightclubs etc are double vaxxed or take a test. That wouldn't mean not opening up, it would just be being a bit more careful.

But changing that is what’s happening. Many people are still wearing masks and you do need negative lft for nightclubs etc
So there are mitigations still in place.

@sashagabadon

But changing that is what’s happening. Many people are still wearing masks and you do need negative lft for nightclubs etc So there are mitigations still in place.

You don't need negative lft for nightclubs.

Masks are not mandated.

Nothing is in place, other than testing and isolation, which is insufficient.

@PoorPawsPickPawpaws

Johnson's gamble will definately, absolutely, 100% pay off.

Just not for us. For him.

His gamble is to do little, skim as much money as possible, cruise through and make more money after being PM. That gamble is a safe bet.

Sadly true

There might be a case for stopping routine testing of asymptotic double vaccinated people but they need unvaccinated kids in schools to test regularly.

I think a combination of school hols plus being summer may mean it’s not a total disaster. Hopefully…

My daughter had to show a negative lft the other night to get into a nightclub so maybe some clubs do, others don’t?
Masks are mandated but plenty of people happy to still wear them and they are terms of carriage on London transport.
My point is that there are still mitigation’s one place, quite a few. Some voluntary of course but still a mitigation. Schools in England end this week, another mitigation and the Euros are over. Olympics start of course but thankfully not in the U.K. and won’t cause the football crowd like enthusiasm.

Masks aren’t mandated

Our town centre, Liverpool, was rammed last night. Which meant we had the usual number of stabbings, assaults and packed A&Es. There was no mask wearing, or testing. The only plus is that we've had a good take up of the vaccine and we have drop in vaccination centers, in easy reach of everyone. But if multi generational meet ups happen at the weekend, then hospital admissions rise.
But we are taking the overspill of Manchester and Wales, hospitals. Alderhey is now only planned and emergency attending. They are turning children away to be seen at walk-ins. They now have a planned Covid ward at Alderhey. My DD has just been for a job interview at another local hospital and they are taking lots of people on, on ten hour contracts, but with a promise of at least 16 hours, because they know very soon, there's going to be staffing problems combined with busy hospitals.

@AlternativePerspective

It’s not that black and white.

We do need to go back to normal at some point, added to which opening up now means that the economy has a chance of a boost before things could potentially become worse again.

But actually I think that there is method in the madness of opening up amid rising figures. When we opened up last time figures were at their lowest, meaning that people were falsely under the impression that it was all over, so they were complacent.

Now that the figures are going up people are more likely to take more responsibility for themselves and to tread with caution.

My DS has been out today and he said he’s seen more masks today than possibly ever. Equally my parents have both been to separate places and they said the same. People know that if they’re not more cautious then we will go back into lockdown, and as the figures are going up there is less complacency than last time.

I echo this. I hadn't really thought of it before but it's exactly what I'm seeing too. Commented to DH yesterday that there seem to be even more people than normal round here in masks, even just on the street. Almost making a point. I think this attitude will be extremely helpful to the outcome. I also agree we should stop obsessing over case numbers. The big problem we're facing now in the short to medium term is large scale disruption from pinging.

The problem I have with NZ pontificating from what they think is their secure bubble is that it’s coming for them too. They’ve just delayed it. They probably don’t realise it just yet but the penny is dropping in Australia and it’ll drop for them too soon

Aye - right you are.

The thing about New Zealand 'pontificating' as you call it - is that they've had 26 deaths in total so far. The UK has had 128,727 deaths so far.

Yes - I do realise there are different populations in each country etc etc. But I also think that to say New Zealand has handled the pandemic badly is ludicrous - I say they've made the right shout.

And they have strong and decisive leadership in their country . If our dear buffoooning idiot of a dickhead prime minister had thought to shut the borders properly and have adequate quarantine, then we wouldn't be over run with the Delta variant, not only endangering our own population , but also lots of other European countries.

I’m in the middle as well. It’s risky but not obviously insane given the situation we’re in (which we shouldn’t be in but so be it).
They’ve made a complete hash of the nightclub thing but even there I can sort of see the reasoning if I squint.
The More or Less special is very good.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09pnw4q

@sashagabadon

Masks aren’t mandated

They are in most of the UK for the foreseeable future.

@PoorPawsPickPawpaws

Johnson's gamble will definately, absolutely, 100% pay off.

Just not for us. For him.

His gamble is to do little, skim as much money as possible, cruise through and make more money after being PM. That gamble is a safe bet.

Depressingly accurate. ☹

@foxandbee

I thought it might be interesting to have a vote for posterity on how people think Johnson’s experiment will pan out. Personally, I have one or two reservations.

YABU - it’s going to be a great success and other countries will follow England’s lead.

YANBU – it will be a shit show with backtracking galore as well as many casualties of Johnson’s cavalier decision.

YANBU. If we all look at the stats today, then tomorrow, then the next day - it's already clear this was a disastrous decision that we are all going to suffer, including more deaths, most countries closing the borders to us, economic problems, a likelihood of greater vaccine mutations that we will then in turn expose other nations to, etc.

Not a doom and gloom post, just a reading of the stats post.

but it's not - we could mitigate it a bit more, keep some, very few restrictions (masks, essentially) in place for longer, make sure those going to nightclubs etc are double vaxxed or take a test. That wouldn't mean not opening up, it would just be being a bit more careful

I agree and I am still wearing my mask, ventilating etc. It must be terrifying to be vulnerable at the moment. However the argument is that retaining these measures would have only a negligible impact in reducing infections and deaths, and would mainly serve to push the wave back to the autumn which would be worse. I’m not an epidemiologist and haven’t crunched the stats, but that’s what Chris Whitty said at last week’s conference. If people think he is wrong that’s fine we need to engage with the reasons he’s given.

@foxandbee

If at this point there are still some people who can't differentiate between seasonal flu and a pandemic involving a novel virus, then I despair.

It wasn’t me who made that comment and obviously it’s different but I think you’re misconstruing what they’re saying.

The basis of ongoing restrictions for a lot of people is that if we socially distance we can save lives from infectious illnesses. That is true of bad winters for flu.

You don’t have the added pressure of protecting the NHS to the same extent, but if “saving lives” is enough justification to live with social distancing then i cannot see any reason why that principle does not apply to other infectious diseases where a high death toll is predicted.

In fact, we may see this winter because they’re expecting a flu resurgence apparently

Well I was wronger than a very wrong thing!

Today in Wales we have also lifted all restrictions (except for masks) and I must say, it feels bloody brilliant.

Fingers crossed this really is the beginning of the end for this pandemic.