To ask: will Johnson’s gamble pay off?

[foxandbee]

I thought it might be interesting to have a vote for posterity on how people think Johnson’s experiment will pan out. Personally, I have one or two reservations.

YABU - it’s going to be a great success and other countries will follow England’s lead.

YANBU – it will be a shit show with backtracking galore as well as many casualties of Johnson’s cavalier decision.

I think it's too much all in one go. No reason why masks couldn't stay mandatory, for example. I do think the nightclubs thing is quite clever - young people, get jabbed if you want to play out!

@Jackgrealishscurtains

But we don’t get these daily figures for other viruses such as flu, if we did then I suspect that people would call for similar restrictions during the flu season

Wasn't it in 2018 that there was shit loads of flu deaths because they got the strain of wrong for that winters flu jab?

No one gave a fuck if I remember rightly.

No. According to the ONS, that's not what happened.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895233/Surveillance_Influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf#page=54

None of the others have so why would this be different.

And why do we have the inability to learn from others. The Netherlands pm has just apologised to their country for a similar strategy to the one we're doing.

YANBU

I haven't got voting buttons, what's the result?

82% yanbu

If at this point there are still some people who can't differentiate between seasonal flu and a pandemic involving a novel virus, then I despair.

foxandbee completely.
Novel = new= no inherent immunity.
If we'd had a flu pandemic it would have been bad, possibly worse initially, but we'd have got out of it quicker because it isn't novel. It's the reason we've been able to avoid the much overdue and anticipated potential flu pandemic.

Presumably another factor in opening up during the summer is that protection from the vaccines may start to decline at some point. I read a study on this recently on the Pfizer vaccine I think.

In which case there is an advantage in starting to ease restrictions now. Along with the death rate being 16 times lower than in the last wave, despite similar levels of cases. Plus the school holidays and better weather so more people outdoors.

I don't understand the point in a massive vaccine rollout unless we lift restrictions at some point. I don't expect it to be plain sailing though, and I'm more worried about flu now this winter to be honest.

Let's not forget that there is a financial motivation here too. Whilst businesses are not allowed to operate there is justification for financial support from the government. I have been able to claim the self employment grants for which I am hugely grateful. My business can now operate with the change in restrictions but in reality there is little call for it currently. The financial support is no longer on the table. I don't think the Gov could realistically continue to provide financial support but it's a difficult message if Gov rules are stopping you from working.

I waited with my mum who had a suspected fracture for 13 hours for an ambulance last week - the NHS is already overwhelmed, though imo for a lot more reasons than the virus. Also, other illnesses are picked up more easily at the moment plus all delays to other treatments will be catching up with them. We do need to be able to support emergency healthcare, which has always been the reason for lockdowns more than any government getting actually that concerned over attrition.
I don’t think this question in isolation can cover all sides. I agree we have to live with it but the management of it hasn’t been the best in many ways, and I’m really not sure why we couldn’t keep distancing and masks. Companies wanting to claw back lost income are encouraging folk in - and of course people will cram in nightclubs that really would be a bad night with a few dotted around! I don’t understand that clubs are ok for several weeks but then need the double jab restriction so why weren’t they left shut until they’d rolled that out? I think low level maintenance of restrictions should have been kept. Generally, I don’t think you’re being unreasonable but it’s a much bigger picture than this specific decision.

I cannot believe the stupidity of Boris Johnson. It's just incredible. And I can't believe anyone could think he is competent. Its not like nightclubs are essential to physical or mental health for God's sake. We are going to see vaccine resistant strains develop and more lockdowns, or a situation where its every person for themselves so those that are worried about catching it locking themselves down whilst everyone else swans about, creating huge amounts of resentment. And all because the government couldn't get their shit together. AGAIN!

Can we stop publishing crime statistics too ?

Surely then the crime rate goes down and fewer people are scared of crime ?

My view is that it is a gamble either way. If we hold off and push the exit wave ( which os gonna happen regardless) to the autumn then we might end up in a worse situation with more viruses including Covid spreading through the population. We do need some more immunity in the young over the next couple of months as we now know that being jabbed does not stop you catching Covid although does stop you getting very unwell ( which is great)
I also don’t really get the nightclub thing as plenty are already open in many places all over the world not to mention 300,000 at silver stone yesterday.
And why not let them trade for a couple of months?
We are one of the highest vaxed countries in the world so if not us now then who and when?

I was cautiously optimistic but I am shocked by how quickly many young (mostly unvaccinated) people we already have in our icu. It is already impacting out elective work and that's before the impact of the most recent rise in cases has fed through into hospitalisations. It's taking its toll on the mental health of staff too, a feeling of not being able to do this again. We're also struggling with patients who have waited a long time for treatment because of having to cancel because of covid and are now really sick.

I don't know what the answer is, there probably isn't one that doesn't have massive downsides to it. But I'm really worried about how the health system is going to cope over the next 9 months.

@BillyShears has it, in a nutshell. Here's a viewpoint from NZ:

thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/07/19/guest-blog-ian-powell-boris-the-barbaric-threatens-more-than-uk/

Does anyone think schools might close again in September?

YANBU

Boris and co have this knack of playing to the lowest emotions and instincts, the lowest common denominator they consider that humanity can sink to.

Yes it is true that humans can be vile, uncaring, selfish, exploitative, greedy, etc. we've all seen it and none of us are perfect.

However we can all also aspire to being caring, compassionate and generous individuals.

Some of the policies and behaviour that is being encouraged is not caring or positive.

I saw the headline and article detailing how people with cancer are experiencing 'freedom day'. i.e with fear and desperation about waiting lists etc.

The stress that has been piled on people with il lhealht and lower paid workers is not justice. NHS pay rise should be fifteen per cent and they have just offered a paltry three.

Yes, the leisure and entertainment industries are important, but so is health and security of housing for people.

I like to believe that humanity aspires to something better.

He is a lucky shit! He will get away with it!

@MrsN100

Does anyone think schools might close again in September?

Yes. Our sixth form college has blended learning in place for four days a week (one day home study)

My guess is most schools and colleges will be preparing for this, just in case.

[quote RumblyMumbly]@Pottedpalm I am glad you had a nice day as we all deserve those at the moment. What I was taking issue with was your comment:

Yet another Boris-bashing thread in disguise. We should take responsibility for ourselves.

I have been as responsible as can be, followed all the (sometimes contradictory) rules and still my children end up not being able to go to school. Can't you understand why people are fed up with how the Government are handling things?! I[/quote]
This makes me cross this statement

'people should take responsiblity for themselves'

as Rumbly M. says

some of us have always taken responsiblity for ourselves

being parents, meeting our responsibilites, making sacrifices, juggling this, cutting back on that, etc.

an

They need to stop all the surge testing and testing of people with no symptoms the U.K. is the highest testing country. Less reporting of daily cases would also help and only reporting of hospital numbers/deaths

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

They need to stop all the surge testing and testing of people with no symptoms the U.K. is the highest testing country. Less reporting of daily cases would also help and only reporting of hospital numbers/deaths

Oh yes that's right. Let's act like the ostrich and bury our heads in the sand. That will surely solve everything...

The virus isn't going to go away if we do something as plain stupid as stop testing.

I think it's either absolute genius and we'll be back to normal long before anybody else, maybe in the world.

Or it'll be a complete and utter shitshow with revisions and u-turns all over the place.

I can't quite tell which yet, most likely the latter, but Johnson is a lucky sod and we might just get away with it.

I’m not sure what the alternative is anymore. Zero Covid sailed last March. We’re seeing a jump in a whole range of viruses anyway because people haven’t been interacting. If that happened in winter, it would really bugger the nhs. We are where we are - and cracking on is really the only alternative.