To think this is going to end badly?

[Notthissticky]

COVID related

My work (secondary school) have just confirmed that pupils and staff will be tested using lateral flow tests. This involves self-administering a throat and nose swab. If you're identified as a close contact of a positive case, you can take daily tests and continue to attend school, instead of self-isolating.

Lateral flow tests have a false negative rate of between 30 and 50 percent, depending on who administers them (pupils as young as 11 in our case). So pupils can continue to mix (there's no social distancing in classrooms) after a close contact tests positive, whilst there's a 1 in 2 chance that they're actually positive. AIBU to think that this is going to result in a disaster of epic proportions???

So if they don't want testing can they be taught online?
I know mine won't agree to testing, although her school take temperature on arrival. Nobody gets through the gate without a check, whoever they are.

@Shoppingwithmother

If there were 50% false negatives it would mean that 50% OF THE PEOPLE WHO WERE POSITIVE would test negative.

All the people who WERE actually negative would be testing negative as well. So if there were 1000 children in a school and 6 of them were positive (a realistic number), then with a 50% false negative rate you would get 3 children test positive who were positive, 3 children test negative who were actually positive, and 994 children test negative who were negative.

So 3/997 would be wrongly told they were negative. Which is pretty bloody far from 1 in 2!

Thanks for explaining. I'm not sure that's how it's been explained by the experts though? I seem to recall that the trial at Birmingham university missed a lot more positive cases? Also, the NHS doesn't deem it suitable as a replacement for SI and scientists have pointed out that the tests were not intended for this purpose.

@formerbabe

I think it's better than nothing

It's not. It gives a false sense of "everything is okay". I can predict with the same accuracy as a lft if you have covid: maybe yes, maybe no.

I wouldn’t worry about it, schools will be closed soon

Yes I'm extremely worried. It's very very dangerous. Now, if my partner tests positive (pcr) I don't have to isolate and I can instead rock up to school and have a test every day. This seems to go against every other legality (where not isolating= £1000 fine) and common sense (if he gets it, it's likely I will too). Hoping tonight schools will close because this ridiculous 'plan' will never work and will cause more infections.

@Scolha

I’m not against the lateral flow tests. But to use them instead of self isolation is fucking idiotic.

Preach

I wouldn’t worry about it, schools will be closed soon

This

Actually perfect28, if your partner tests positive, you still self isolate for 10 days. If a student or other staff member in your school tests positive, LFTs for 7 days. And self isolate at weekends.

The only concern I have is, what happens when a child has tested positive, isolated gotten over it.
The nhs advice is not to testsgsin for 90 days from the date of your last positive test as you could show a false negative.
Does that mean some could potentially miss school and their parents miss work?

Well it's working pretty well at the university in my town so I have no issue with it. I'd rather all measures were taken to keep children in school. Our school will be giving positive cases a postal test and send those children home to self-isolate until the 'proper' results come through.

I think it's pretty well organised and very well FAQ'd. Of course, all schools are different and may not be so good.

My school wont be closed.

I’m interested in how the lateral flow tests work as identifying up to 50% of positive tests as negative seems too high of an error to be useful? In terms of the false negatives, what generally is the reason for the false result? Is it a faulty test kit, user error or an issue with the test method not picking up viral load at a certain threshold, a combination or something else entirely?

Also wondering, if a person gets a false negative on Day 1 what is the likelihood they would get a false negative on Day 2? If the 3 in 6 positive children who were tested on Day 1 got tested again on Day 2 are they all likely to test falsely negative again, or is there a 50/50 chance again? Would you expect some of the children to have false negatives on Day 1 to have true positives on Day 2 or are they likely to get a false negative every time they test?

I understand it is sensitivity, not accuracy, that is the problem.

@Enb76

Well it's working pretty well at the university in my town so I have no issue with it. I'd rather all measures were taken to keep children in school. Our school will be giving positive cases a postal test and send those children home to self-isolate until the 'proper' results come through.

I think it's pretty well organised and very well FAQ'd. Of course, all schools are different and may not be so good.

Are your university asking students not to self isolate then ? I haven’t heard anywhere else doing this.

This may all be irrelevant depending on what Boris says tonight.
But - this lateral flow instead of isolate plan is bonkers.

It's worse than nothing.

Testing randomly e.g. whole year group who would not otherwise be tested with these tests may pick up positive cases - that's better than nothing as they would not have otherwise been spotted.

Testing the close contacts of those who are definitely positive instead of sending them home to isolate is stupid.
This includes teachers who may have postive family members at home, siblings of positive cases, those who were in close contact in school as in sat right next to them.

They have to come to school for the test (on the bus?) get the test taken, hang around for 20 to 30 minutes after, etc.
If they get a negative result they can go to lessons but they might not actually be negative.

Various numbers have been given on how accurate these tests are at finding positive cases - up to 70% if carried out by healthcare professionals, down to maybe only 3% by university students at Birmingham.

All I can see this doing is spreading more covid about.

My 13 year old couldn't do his own test properly. We got the people at test site to do it when he had to have one and after watching them do it I know he could not do it to himself so would be waste of a test.

Accuracy will also be affected by how well the test is carried out, if they children don't do them properly then false negatives are more likely. The system also depends on participation, I know from the parents FB group for DS school that very few are going to give their consent.

He would put it in a bit and say its done.

It wont be irrelevant for my school, which will be open. All vulnerable students. We will be testing! I expect there'll be testing of vulnerable and key worker children in mainstream too

Enb76 But there's still the 90 day issue where either test may show positive for the 90 day period.
When my household had it recently and others I know we were told by the NHS at the end of our isolation period not to test again for 90 days as it could be a false negative..
If we had symptoms then isolate.

I know schools need to be safe but there doesn't seem to be a way to make the testing policy work if a number of pupils and staff are having to keep isolating of they have a false positive.
I'm not saying it's wrong as something does need to be done to keep people safe and children, if possible, in school but it's all just so frustrating.

Apologies for the rant, just feeling fed up today.

Guardian story about how these tests are not good enough for community testing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/plans-for-30-minute-covid-lateral-flow-tests-in-england-halted-over-accuracy-fears

Have you got a link for the false negative rate op? I'd understood that the 50% number was one study which had issues? But I can't find that link again.

[quote EndoplasmicReticulum]Guardian story about how these tests are not good enough for community testing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/plans-for-30-minute-covid-lateral-flow-tests-in-england-halted-over-accuracy-fears[/quote]
An that explains why they suddenly became available for schools to use then right before Xmas.
“Oh no we have loads of these tests going to waste now , I know let’s give them to schools and pretend that was the plan and it will make them safer. Who says we don’t invest in schools”

@thefallenmadonna it just says 'close contact'. What is my partner if not a close contact?

@Notthissticky

COVID related

My work (secondary school) have just confirmed that pupils and staff will be tested using lateral flow tests. This involves self-administering a throat and nose swab. If you're identified as a close contact of a positive case, you can take daily tests and continue to attend school, instead of self-isolating.

Lateral flow tests have a false negative rate of between 30 and 50 percent, depending on who administers them (pupils as young as 11 in our case). So pupils can continue to mix (there's no social distancing in classrooms) after a close contact tests positive, whilst there's a 1 in 2 chance that they're actually positive. AIBU to think that this is going to result in a disaster of epic proportions???

Same at DHs secondary. There will be no isolation for teachers / TAs / support staff.

Absolutely fucking stupid.