AIBU If Lockdowns Worked Why Are We In A Worse Tier Than Before

[Oliversmumsarmy]

Did this lockdown do anything apart from stop a lot of people earning and put more strain on the High Street Retail and Hospitality Sectors.

Aibu in saying if this lockdown had worked why have whole swathes of the country ended up being in a worse Tier and worse off than before the lockdown started.

Because the setting of tiers initially was too light , that's how we ended up in lockdown 2.

It was too light because people are trying to balance economy and health, and the balance tipped too far towards economy, hospital pressures rose too much, so lockdown was needed to regain control and then don't be stupid enough to go back to the same tiers as we have already shown they didn't work hard enough

Unless you like repeated lockdown of course

Also it takes into account NHS pressures, which may have changed as we head into winter, regardless of Covid. Our local hospital is rammed but doesn’t have a huge number of Covid cases.

Mass testing seems a way to go. We are now in lower tier and cases fell right down.

I can only go by a friends area which is less than our area but they are tier 3 and we are tier 2

Because we're obsessed with 'protect the NHS' and so everything has to shut.

My local hospital (according to 2 frontline nurse friends working there) is full of people presenting to A&E because they can't get a GP appointment

... and I'm in Kent, where 3 large prison outbreaks have put us all into tier 3.

Tighter restrictions have been brought in because things are better but not under control. It’s winter, it’s colder so aerosolised virus particles last longer in the environment, and people are staying indoors more abd so on. It all adds up.

Evidence shows that (if using English tiers) in tier 1, cases generally rise, In tier 2 they stay static and only in tier 3 or a lockdown do they reduce. Some areas are better than they were, but still not down to where they would ideally be and if these areas go into tier 1, numbers will rise again. If you add in the decision that has been made for a free for all for 5 days over Christmas, it’s inevitable that tighter restrictions would need to be in place both before and after that period. I personally think it’s foolish to encourage travel from high risk areas to low risk ones (and vice versa) and multiple households mixing indoors. I think most people will struggle with social distancing indoors in the average house if 3 households are there. If it’s cold, they won’t be “well-ventilating” their houses either. And I doubt many won’t restrict themselves to 3 households if it means they can’t see everyone in their immediate family, for instance.

The previous tier system didn't work. That's the point. That's why we've had this latest 4 week national lockdown. It wouldn't make sense to go back to something we know didn't work, especially with the super spreader Christmas effect on the horizon.

Just all part of the ongoing balancing act to keep infection numbers manageable. We want schools open? Then we need to reduce human interactions elsewhere. We want to mix at Christmas? Then we have to keep infections stable before then so the numbers don't explode afterwards. It's boring and tough but there aren't any other solutions until such time as we get a vaccine in the mix.

The government has failed all along, the four week restrictions were too late in any case.

Going to restrictions wholly at a county/unitary authority level is a mistake and only breeds resentment and therefore more chance of Dominic Cummings type behaviour. Lack of attention to detail which is form for this government.

At least two London Boroughs (adjacent ones) should be in tier 3, half of Kent, parts of Northumberland and Lancashire in tier 2, for example.

It was too light because people are trying to balance economy and health, and the balance tipped too far towards economy, hospital pressures rose too much, so lockdown was needed to regain control and then don't be stupid enough to go back to the same tiers as we have already shown they didn't work hard enough

Back in December/January time I knew loads of people who had what I suspect was Covid. Even in March/April time there was a few.
Since then apart from friends off dds who went back to Uni in October I don’t know a single person with it.
However I know more people who have committed suicide because of lockdown (all be it in a different country with harsher lockdowns) than I do who have died from Covid
I know more people who are on the edge and am seriously worried for their lives than I do who have had Covid anytime during this lockdown.

There is more to life and death than this virus.

Lots of places with far stricter lockdowns have shown great results in the world. Where I live there were effectively very hard lockdowns in place from March- November. Now we’re at 0 cases. Not coincidentally.

3 large prison outbreaks have put us all into tier 3. What a silly decision, it's not like the prisoners are going to be out and about spreading it !

It was a purely political decision to make it look like the government are doing "something". The Tiers system is illogical and behaviour experts warned before the 1st lockdown that people would only follow the rules once, which is what we are seeing

I can have my eyebrows waxed and go to the gym. But can't sit In a coffee shop, on my own with a book. 😡

IMO this lockdown should have been, at the very least, two weeks longer. Cases have started to fall and another two weeks would have given us much more breathing room. We still would have come out in tiers but the result would have been clearer. But no, the tories couldn’t just be unpopular despite it being the right thing to do...

That aside we were always going to come out of lockdown and straight into restrictions. The first one was eased gradually with one eye on the numbers and this will be the same.

The tiers are not immediately obvious but this is a national policy that has to be applied based on relatively large geographical areas. You personally might not know anyone with covid but looking at the population as a whole alongside other variables like hospital capacity could give a very different picture.

This is why populism shouldn’t be the driver of the National response. Just because you can’t see the bigger picture doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

However the data says that suicide rates have not gone up whilst excess deaths from covid have

Which is why just looking at your own local situation and experience isn't a good basis for national policy

and I'm in Kent, where 3 large prison outbreaks have put us all into tier 3

Put the prisons in Tier 3. I would think the majority of inmates aren’t going anywhere, they aren’t exactly mixing with the general public and spreading the virus. But to put the whole of a county into Tier 3 because of this is in my mind ridiculous.

Friend lives in Kent and was celebrating having got some Christmas work at Bluewater and now it has been snatched away from her. Despite her area and the areas around her being quite a low number per 100,000 infection rates

Lockdown didn't address COVID in schools as they stayed open. (I'm not saying that they should be shut just stating a fact)

Well Covid is more dispersed in the community so there is now a greater chance to catch it doing the essential trips for food, medicine, etc or off delivered packages and food than there was before. If they had not done the lockdown, things would have gotten even worse. The lockdowns are about slowing down the spread as they know they cannot stop it.

Not saying it isn't all shit btw, just I direct my anger elsewhere

For example it's highly likely that a 2 week lockdown the last 2 weeks of October could see most people now in tier 1 or 2 not 3

The delay cost lives and jobs. Criminal.

@Oliversmumsarmy

I can only go by a friends area which is less than our area but they are tier 3 and we are tier 2

It was explained on TV last night that in areas where actual cases have dropped the hospital admissions remain high.

Where I live we were tier 3 before so not much has changed. We had some of the highest numbers of cases in the country, and the numbers have dropped significantly. However, nearly 300 members of staff at the local hospital have tested positive and are having to isolate. Also, hospital admissions are higher.

However the data says that suicide rates have not gone up whilst excess deaths from covid have gone up

I listened to an interesting discussion on this. They’re not entirely sure why suicide rates actually went down in the first lockdown but it’s being studied. The initial factors they think apply are that some peoples triggers were removed through lockdown (work environments, social situations) along with lack of opportunity as a result of lockdown.

It doesn’t apply universally to anyone experiencing suicidal thoughts but there is certainly an argument that not everyone with MH problems will have them exacerbated by the current restrictions. The other side of the coin is that the restrictions will have definitely caused MH problems in a completely different set of people.

It’s never an exact science when it comes to mental health but it’s not a clear cut good/bad outcome as the result of restrictions.

midgebabe

The people I know who have committed suicide were in countries that had harsh lockdowns. Not in the uk. Ones that have been in countries that achieved zero infections

I don’t think we have seen a rise in the suicide rate yet as people are just about holding on.

I think if things don’t change in the new year and it gets prolonged then faced with losing everything and being of an age where they can’t get a job and rebuild what they have lost then I think we will see more deaths by suicide than we have seen so far in the uk.
Especially over winter time.

I know friends who have seen their business decimated. Fallen through the cracks for government help and are ploughing through their savings and cashing in their pensions just to stay afloat. Paying for business premises when they don’t have a business anymore.

I really don’t think this lockdown achieved anything. If anything I think it will have the opposite effect.
People will just celebrate more and get together with more people because they haven’t been able to

@BelleHathor

3 large prison outbreaks have put us all into tier 3. What a silly decision, it's not like the prisoners are going to be out and about spreading it !

It was a purely political decision to make it look like the government are doing "something". The Tiers system is illogical and behaviour experts warned before the 1st lockdown that people would only follow the rules once, which is what we are seeing

You are aware there are staff in those prisons right ? I mean you don't presumably think they just lock the door at the end of the day and toddler off?

I used to work in Kent prisons , hundreds of staff , all of whom were essential workers.

But hey screw them right ? They aren't important at all. They go home to their families and some places the majority of staff are near by (not all)

There are nurses, drugs workers ,admin staff. All of whom have to work or what? Open the doors and just give up?

Good grief

@midgebabe

Because the setting of tiers initially was too light , that's how we ended up in lockdown 2.

It was too light because people are trying to balance economy and health, and the balance tipped too far towards economy, hospital pressures rose too much, so lockdown was needed to regain control and then don't be stupid enough to go back to the same tiers as we have already shown they didn't work hard enough

Unless you like repeated lockdown of course

No. We ended up in another lockdown because of a second wave they already told us was coming. Have you forgotten about eat out to help out??? The rule of 6 which was introduced late and was basically a free for all?

Think it through.....

Schools opened without proper mitigation measures in place. Rota systems, blended learning, a range of sensible suggestions were dismissed out of hand and no extra funding was made available. Currently the highest rates of infection are among secondary school students and young people. Things may calm down as more schools shut for lack of staff or when more whole year groups get sent home.

A member of SAGE (I think) explicitly stated on R4 this morning that schools (and workplaces) are the highest drivers of infection and that the Christmas break might make a difference (or might not if there’s a lot of social mixing to offset).

Prisons are major potential spots for outbreaks - you can't effectively quarantine people, contact tracing can't happen and they obviously can't be kept clean easily. Staff are at major risk for all those reasons and could easily take the virus home without realising.