AIBU If Lockdowns Worked Why Are We In A Worse Tier Than Before

[Oliversmumsarmy]

Did this lockdown do anything apart from stop a lot of people earning and put more strain on the High Street Retail and Hospitality Sectors.

Aibu in saying if this lockdown had worked why have whole swathes of the country ended up being in a worse Tier and worse off than before the lockdown started.

And actually we do have a pretty good health service, you just don't know your born

I have listed on other threads the failings of this health service and how much it has cost us over the years in terms of financial, lives and years lost with untreated or mistreated health issues.

The NHS has failed our family for years. It is just expensive and if you get treated correctly then you are lucky. You end paying through your salary for the health service then when you actually need it the stuff ups and general lack of care mean you end up going private to actually get treated.

We had zero cases for months, now we are rising and though our numbers are about the same as they were at the height, they are in the community rather than institutions. It took about a week for things to go right back where they were. They have been very diligent with contact tracing but they are getting to the limit now of what they can do, in terms of following up numbers. As a result they've put the affected city back into strict restrictions now.

But what was the point of it if your borders remained open, there were no fines for people not quarantining, etc?

Our big second wave happened WITH closed borders, it was spread through hotel quarantine. Most of the positive cases in Australia are now of those in quarantine (which is treated much more seriously now). In quarantine there is no temptation to dash to the shops to get some food, get some fresh air etc.

We can't leave the country without special permission, so no risk of holidayers bringing it back with them. When a state has an out break internal borders quickly get closed/monitored, so it doesn't spread to other states.

Fines were high from day 1 for those who broke the rules, which for Victoria included a 5 km restriction on travel, curfew, very restricted businesses able to continue, shopping other than food etc by delivery or click and collect. No visitors, etc. A single person/parent bubble was only introduced when numbers had dropped.

@TicTacTwo

Lockdown didn't address COVID in schools as they stayed open. (I'm not saying that they should be shut just stating a fact)

This.

The thing that would have made the biggest impact on the R rate would have been closing or going to rotas in secondaries.

@ClaryFairchild

We had zero cases for months, now we are rising and though our numbers are about the same as they were at the height, they are in the community rather than institutions. It took about a week for things to go right back where they were. They have been very diligent with contact tracing but they are getting to the limit now of what they can do, in terms of following up numbers. As a result they've put the affected city back into strict restrictions now.

But what was the point of it if your borders remained open, there were no fines for people not quarantining, etc?

Our big second wave happened WITH closed borders, it was spread through hotel quarantine. Most of the positive cases in Australia are now of those in quarantine (which is treated much more seriously now). In quarantine there is no temptation to dash to the shops to get some food, get some fresh air etc.

We can't leave the country without special permission, so no risk of holidayers bringing it back with them. When a state has an out break internal borders quickly get closed/monitored, so it doesn't spread to other states.

Fines were high from day 1 for those who broke the rules, which for Victoria included a 5 km restriction on travel, curfew, very restricted businesses able to continue, shopping other than food etc by delivery or click and collect. No visitors, etc. A single person/parent bubble was only introduced when numbers had dropped.

The point was that we went from a lot of cases that would have soon begun to cause real problems with services, to a place where we can institute spot closures temporarily and keep essential things like schools on and this time they are also not shutting down nearly as many health services. This is due to controlling numbers but also giving time to make changes to service provision.

Now this is probably not a viable long term plan, and if there is not a result about a vaccine in 2021 I think they will need to take a different approach, and I hope they are thinking about that now. But for now, we've done well without ever running into having to make unfortunate triage decisions.

People not taking lockdown seriously is probably why we were seeing our worst rate of infection literally months after other countries had gone back to normal. If people don't take it seriously it may go on well into next year, especially considering how many people I've already heard saying they'll refuse to have the vaccine.

Lockdown didn't address COVID in schools as they stayed open. (I'm not saying that they should be shut just stating a fact)

Obviously, it's pretty much a lost battle getting kids to social distance, but I was watching a big group of schoolkids today whilst sitting in traffic. They were shoulder to shoulder and the girls were hugging each other goodbye, boys were play fighting and getting each other in headlock etc. I can't see how we can really stop kids from spreading it with the current system.

@ClaryFairchild

Lockdowns can work - it worked in Melbourne. We're now a full 28 days with zero cases. But it has to be a really strict lock down, with lots of testing even for the mildest of symptoms. I've had 3 tests because of a sore throat, all came back negative fortunately. But many others with mild symptoms have been positive and so they can then contact trace. If you're only testing major symptoms you're never going to identify all the cases.

This. Proper lockdowns, with closed borders excepting essential travel (and proper quarantine) work.

@ClaryFairchild

We had zero cases for months, now we are rising and though our numbers are about the same as they were at the height, they are in the community rather than institutions. It took about a week for things to go right back where they were. They have been very diligent with contact tracing but they are getting to the limit now of what they can do, in terms of following up numbers. As a result they've put the affected city back into strict restrictions now.

But what was the point of it if your borders remained open, there were no fines for people not quarantining, etc?

Our big second wave happened WITH closed borders, it was spread through hotel quarantine. Most of the positive cases in Australia are now of those in quarantine (which is treated much more seriously now). In quarantine there is no temptation to dash to the shops to get some food, get some fresh air etc.

We can't leave the country without special permission, so no risk of holidayers bringing it back with them. When a state has an out break internal borders quickly get closed/monitored, so it doesn't spread to other states.

Fines were high from day 1 for those who broke the rules, which for Victoria included a 5 km restriction on travel, curfew, very restricted businesses able to continue, shopping other than food etc by delivery or click and collect. No visitors, etc. A single person/parent bubble was only introduced when numbers had dropped.

This.

After failing to use our island advantage in February, the UK had a second chance in the summer.

One of the scientific experts who advises the Scottish government, Professor Devi Sridhar, warned about the consequences of summer holidays. Unfortunately the UK government failed to listen.

Like Professor Sridhar says, viruses move when people move.

Our borders remain unrestricted (and our quarantine is fake). We messed up on testing too.

Just to push up our deaths even more, the government has decided on Spread Covid for Christmas.

Problem is all the people moaning about "muh freedom" who will conclude it doesn't matter if just they go and see their mates - what harm can little me do. Problem is that several million other people have the same thought.

As I said earlier a friend has just been told her lifeline Christmas job which would have put her back on her feet, or gone some way to keeping the family afloat was in dartford which is in tier 3 so now won’t go ahead.
However Redbridge has more cases per 100,000 and is in tier 2.

My own area was falling in numbers before lockdown and now is virtually back to the highest figures. If anything it rose more than it fell.

For those that are areas of the world that locked down and you couldn’t leave your flat let alone the country, how are your suicide rates looking.

We have lost 8 friends that lived in these circumstances from around the world. Do those figures show up on your death rate because of Covid

What happens if we never find a cure for this disease. Do you stay locked into your country. Never leaving never going anywhere.

I think the financial and emotional toll from this disease hasn’t been calculated yet. I think the true cost is going to be far higher than people expect.

I am sure I read somewhere that even in China if you had the disease and recovered you carried paperwork to let you travel around unrestricted.

Because they’re prepping for the fact that relaxed Xmas rules will cause a big spike in infections, so are doing the tough tier thing to cancel that out when it arrives?

Thing is @Oliversmumsarmy if you start applying the worst outcomes from countries globally to your individual situation your view is skewed and, not to be rude, not credible.

When you’re posting about suicide rates apparently your referring to examples from another country but anyone reading it on a UK heavy site is going to presume you’re talking about here. It’s not comparable, no two countries have responded in exactly the same way and no two cultures will have the same response to a particular policy.

Credit where it’s due the UK have tried to mitigate financial and social impacts far more than some other countries alongside lockdown and restrictions that haven’t been enforced particularly harshly. There’s never been any suggestion of having to carry papers or any kind of proof to go about your day here and largely relied on public cooperation.

You also appear to be determined to be fatalistic about the role of science, we’ve already had news of three promising vaccines on the cusp of approval alongside a steady stream of research findings and talk of treatment developments.

I think many of the points you raise have a valid foundation but your interpretation and communication is extremely unbalanced and rigid.

The first lockdown was lifted before it should have been.

Oh and Boris and a number of his colleagues were busted being out and about during that time "This doesn't apply to us, of course"

My friend lives in Kent and so supposedly can’t go to a shop in Kent but can work in a shop in London

She can work all day with 5 other colleagues in London but then can’t go for a drink with them after work.

The tier system makes no sense.

Bluewater is closed so will people just flood to Stratford?

Personally I think the first lockdown was too long. People have got fed up and weren’t taking any notice of this one. The tier system is a mess with areas in tier 3 having less infections than in Tier 2

I don’t think track and trace works in the uk because of the number of people who just can’t afford to stop working and isolate for 2 weeks because someone went into the same large building as them at some point during the day.
I think there is a fundamental difference in attitude between those that have a wfh type job where you get paid whether you have to isolate or are ill and those people who work in the gig economy. Where if you don’t work you don’t get paid.

The ones who are wfh are quite happy staying in whilst those that don’t have the job security are actively trying to avoid track and trace and keeping going as long as possible

Tell me, are you looking to inherit and starting to panic that your elderly relative is going to escape?

That's a fairly appalling thing to say to anyone

The only person we could inherit from is Dmil aged 95 who has had Covid already and breezed through it.

Even then we know she isn’t leaving anything to Dp