Circuit break lockdown at half term?

[Midlifelights]

So I started a thread a couple of weeks ago about this and got accused of all sorts including being ‘one of those people that wants police on the streets who loves the drama & wrecked lives and other similar shite.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4041654-To-think-we-are-heading-for-a-full-2-week-national-half-term-lockdown

Now Kier Starmer is asking for it at the recommendation of SAGE so aibu to think we will get a 2 week national lockdown at half term?

As before, I don’t want another lockdown but it seems much more likely with everything that is going on?

@WanderingMilly

What a crap half term that will be....everything planned to do but everything bloody shut again. And for what? It won't make a bit of difference at all....

I agree totally

I don't think anyone knows or agrees what the strategy is any more and th ats what worries me. If we locked down for two weeks would that:

• ensure hospitals could cope over winter
• reduce deaths to some acceptable level
• prevent all covid deaths

What are we trying to achieve and what is the evidence to link a two week lockdown to the desired outcome?

@Littleposh

Why don't people understand it's easy for the opposition to agree with the popular public ideas as it has absolutely no bearing on anything?? They do not have ANY repercussions from going along with any old clap trap so they can and they do

I know. It’s so annoying. I have not the slightest doubt that no political party would have handled this well and it’s so easy to criticise and take the populist view

The point of the programme was that no one knows the long term effects of this virus, which seems a reasonable supposition to make.
Although, I suppose they could just ask MN if they really want to know.

Yes I'd like 2, 3 week shut down.
Keep small business open with strict sd.
Ventilated and masks. Eg barbers, hairdressers, small shops...

Why is Germany who handled covid so well, pushing ventilation and we are not?

I think it would halt the virus in its tracks and again buy time to stop being over run with it. Save the NHS. Cut back transmission in school.

Winter is going to be viscous. We need to buy time and tread water and do anything to get through winter.

Why don't people understand it's easy for the opposition to agree with the popular public ideas as it has absolutely no bearing on anything?? They do not have ANY repercussions from going along with any old clap trap so they can and they do

@Littleposh is right and this is a really important point. This is a political battle just like any other. If Boris had announced a two week lockdown yesterday, I absolutely guarantee there would have been uproar from the Labour benches about it (look at the uproar there’s been from Labour controlled areas in the north about the tighter measures there).

I’m not a fan of this government at all but, understandably, Labour are out to capitalise on the crisis in political terms in every way they can. They are going to oppose whatever moves Boris makes - that’s the luxury of being in opposition.

We are In national crisis.
I'm thrilled we seem to have A more substantial opposition these days but surely we need a cross party coalition to get us through!

Looks like we are just going to let the virus run it's course.

Which will cause economic damage.

Stress which will cause domestic violence and suicide.

Will fill hospitals which will stop cancer patients getting care etc.

Why are people so stupid? Can't they see that lockdown and letting the virus run will cause the same problems?

We're screwed. We were screwed when people went on holiday and they opened the schools and universities.

There's nothing we can do.

Winter is coming.

True, but I was listening to programme on Radio 4 today about ‘long COVID’ and the potential impact of that on the workforce/economy going forward made me pause for thought.

Absolutely - ‘long Covid’ is a concern and I feel like I’d be a hypocrite If I didn’t admit that ‘long Covid’ is one of the factors that changed my personal appetite for catching the virus from ‘it’s a fancy flu, I’ll probably be fine’ in February to ‘I really want to avoid catching this virus if I can’ now.

But I understand that lots of viruses, including flu, can have long term post-viral effects (although I do understand the point that if a huge section of the population have post-viral complications at the same time then that will be a very serious problem). And the lockdown will have a massive effect on the economy and the workforce going forward - possibly for a generation or more.

I’m not even going to pretend to know where the balance lies. But the social and economic cost of lockdowns is incredibly high.

@Midlifelights

Honestly, I am genuinely baffled as to why we have public health and infectious disease specialists if everyone just says no to what they say. Genuinely interested in what people think should happen If not? They are saying it’s March all over again with rising death rates and very rapidly rising cases. Otherwise we will end up like America with their bonkers covid denier approach

Because that isnt the only concern.

The best advice for medical reasons may be everyone stays home for 6 months.

But that doesnt work as you know starvation.

So wheres the balance who goes to work and who doesnt?

What parts of the economy do you burn what do you save?

How many 80 year olds = how many businesses?

The virus seems to be like flu and the common cold, so how can a course be run..

I agree totally that it's a balance of harm. What the economy needs and what healthcare needs are completely opposite and both are crucial, I don't think the government have handled things well but I don't think any government would have, I sure as heck wouldn't want to be making the decisions when really, the politicians are faced with an impossible choice.

My DM died last month, she was an alcoholic but her drinking went into absolute overdrive during lockdown and I'm convinced it saw her off. The doctor in the hospital where she died said they were seeing this sort of thing, as well as suicide attempts all the time....but you don't have a big ticking death clock on the news every night for those people.

I am with you OP.
This is because I have lost one 51 year old colleague who was a bit overweight.. (16/18) and a fit healthy 42 yr old neighbour with 2 young children earlier this year..

The last lockdown DID work.. it stopped the NHS from being overwhelmed. Because that will have a catastrophic effect in ALL suck people not just Covid sufferers. .. and that was late spring into summer and still killed 630 nhs workers. We are now in a MUCH worse position because we are Autumn going into Winter and the normal cold weather respiratory illnesses haven't even begun yet.

Everyone wants the impossible. You CANNOT control this thing by trying to be all things to all people.

The ONLY way to do it is a probably a series of two/three week TOTAL lockdowns that are enforced with draconian sanctions for rule breakers. Schools, Universities closed. All non essential shops.

This is the only way. The government has to be honest about how much money their is.. and pump it into the benefit system/furlough in these times. Make some big decisions. Like cancelling Trident (or whatever it's called these days) that would pay for it in one fell swoop.

Mortgages frozen for those without work. Rents paid for those without work. Benefit paid a a living wage.

Or

Do nothing. Accept that the death toll will be in the hundred thousand range if not more. Some of those from Covid but many many more from other diseases unable to be treated.

This is not something that can be handled in such a wishy washy way.. because it will kill so many people that the businesses won't be able to function anyway because the staff will be too sick to work and the customers will be too scared to go out or be dead.

It's a numbers issue. Pure and simple.

How many are going to die of suicide from a lockdown and loss of business /family contact ? Vs How many from Cancer, Heart disease, Covid, Flu and Pneumonia with overwhelmed hospitals and reduced staff. ?

Labour are out to capitalise on the crisis in political terms in every way they can. They are going to oppose whatever moves Boris makes - that’s the luxury of being in opposition

To be fair that’s the purpose of the opposition so they’re doing a good job.

he’s not asking for schools to close- just everything else by the sound of it

That seems to be pretty much the new rules in Liverpool, so in two weeks from tomorrow we'll see if it's had any effect there. If new cases reduce dramatically in that time then I'm sure they'll bring in similar restrictions for other places.

Why don't people understand it's easy for the opposition to agree with the popular public ideas as it has absolutely no bearing on anything?? They do not have ANY repercussions from going along with any old clap trap so they can and they do

It's not any old claptrap though it's what the government was advised three weeks ago by SAGE
The longer we leave it, the longer the lockdown we'll eventually end up with AND more deaths. So a 2 weeks now to try to reduce numbers seems a good idea to me and I think Starmer was right

Make some big decisions. Like cancelling Trident (or whatever it's called these days) that would pay for it in one fell swoop.

A quick google search suggests that maintaining Trident costs about £2bn per year - approximately the cost of running the NHS for one week - while furlough alone has cost £35bn so far. Amazon UK's entire profit last year was 'only' about £0.1bn. I don't think people appreciate quite the scale of the costs involved here.

I think a ban on inter regional travel in half term is quite cruel actually. Just when people with kids can finally get a break away from home.

All very well for those without kids who’ve had weeks and weeks to flit about the places.

Duchess, holidays are not life essentials. Many people don't get any holidays anyway.

We will have to cancel a 2 night break away.
I'd been hoping we could go but I don't think we can risk it. Cases are rocketing.

I'm gutted but realise there are far worse things that could happen!

Saw this just now on Twitter - sums it up for me

@puffinsseagulls

Why don't people understand it's easy for the opposition to agree with the popular public ideas as it has absolutely no bearing on anything?? They do not have ANY repercussions from going along with any old clap trap so they can and they do

It's not any old claptrap though it's what the government was advised three weeks ago by SAGE
The longer we leave it, the longer the lockdown we'll eventually end up with AND more deaths. So a 2 weeks now to try to reduce numbers seems a good idea to me and I think Starmer was right

They also wildly over estimated the number of cases by this point too. It just hasn’t happened the way they said it would.

I’m praying they dont put us through another lockdown. I’m just getting back on my feet with my business, another lockdown will finish me off for good as there is no assurance we would come out of it after two weeks - remember how long the last one lasted.

The average age for Covid deaths is 81

For the vast vast majority of people around 98% will be absolutely fine. People that need to isolate should be able to with full financial support.

A lockdown achieves a reduction in cases.

The target is to get r at one (or, ideally, less). This is an averaging process. Unfortunately, it seems that our current precautions are not nearly enough. So, unless we want a permanent semi-lockdown, we need to cycle in and out of lockdown to keep the case load manageable. Not sure we need a national lockdown, though. In some areas hospitals are hardly taking any strain and the less locked down, the better.

Hopefully we get a vaccine soon and, if not, each cycle should be longer as herd immunity naturally builds.

At the moment the economy is coping with the stimulus measures, although we will be paying for years to come.

The alternatives, which most are unwilling to acknowledge, are pretty unpalatable, they seem to me to be denying hospital care to anyone over a certain age (or bank balance, as those able to pay will get treated). And, I suspect, that age would be more like 60 than 80 if we let the virus grow without restricting any freedoms.

It's keeping case numbers at acceptable through the winter, so there are enough hospital beds, and so that not all businesses need close.

Right now, it's too close to the numbers where it couid really take off and be unstoppable without extensive and strict lockdown. No-one wants that.

So applying the current restrictions adequately is really important. Fortunately, the level of understanding seems way better in RL than it does online.

@Midlifelights

Saw this just now on Twitter - sums it up for me

Look back on threads from 3 weeks ago and you can probably guess the advice that the behavioural scientists would have given them about public tolerating of the measures, and the need to optimise the timing of any period of lockdown. That unfortunately means that measures will come in later than they ideally would.

Countries which can either rely on their population's compliance (Germany, Norway) and those who will just plain force theirs (Taiwan, China, Korea) have much better rates