The problem hitting the testing system is nothing new in healthcare. It is about high and fluctuating demand. The patterns are well known. The pattern for colds and sniffles will follow it because it always has.
The pattern; Early Monday morning people start calling GP practices. They can’t get through. They go to A&E or urgent care, where a physical queue starts to form. At mid morning a new peak is created by schools identifying children sent in who are ill and asking their parents to take them home. A new surge in demand at the GP surgery. People can’t get through and then go to Urgent care. Repeated early afternoon. The queue in A&E gets longer. By 6 the system will break. Later in the week demand reduces and capacity releases but not enough. Queues never get cleared and compound until not even the seasons make a difference.
The NHS spent years thinking they had to meet peaking demand by putting in more capacity. The result was they created new lanes on the motorway, walk-in centres etc, that just filled up at peak times. These are the queues that create wait times. They happen on Monday and Tuesday (and a Friday or Saturday night, for different reasons).
The answer which works is to smooth demand. To do that you need to capture the queue when it starts. That way you can prioritise and shift people into trough periods later in the week. This is the constant clearing of a queue on a daily basis.
The testing system doesn’t do this. Instead of a queue they have chaos. Because it does not allow a queue to form in a way it can be captured at source and managed at source. This method works and queues get smoothed and removed with fairly simple triaging techniques.
I don’t believe they can even say they have reliable data on demand. People where using fake postcodes, re-entering and turning up in person. The system has a problem but probably not the one it thinks it has. They are solving the wrong problem. They have been for some time. Now the lanes on the motorway have filled up. New lanes will fill up if they don’t manage the queue when it forms at source.