Will WFH be outsourced to cheaper countries?

[Alongcameacat]

Following on from a recent thread where the majority of people believe that they will remain working from home permanently, is anyone concerned that their jobs are now high risk?

Why would companies continue paying people their current salaries when there is no need for people to be in the same place at the same time?

Surely it makes sense that companies will outsource most if not all of their WFH workforce to countries like India and Eastern Europe where labour is significantly cheaper?

As for going to the office one or two days a week - Zoom, Google Teams, would suffice for the most part and any inconveniences would be more than offset by huge financial savings?

There are certainly jobs that cannot be outsourced. But there are probably fewer than people think.

Niche jobs are a moat. But then niches can disappear altogether. For example, Imagine sweeping changes due to fin tech and regulatory changes. That would be a bunch of niches swept away.

Also, jobs based on knowledge of rules and procedures such as tax rules or the process for claiming benefits are particularly vulnerable to being automated. The rules and processes are performed AI.

Okay so all the jobs are outsourced or automated, what next? No income tax, no corporation tax.

Mass cull of the population?

Covid has just given us an insight of how our lives can change. Next is the no deal Brexit at the same time as a potential second wave of Covid.

What people seem to be missing is that if the op is right (and I genuinely don't know) then surely the die is already cast. Us all returning to the offices isn't going to change the fact that the work can be done cheaper and as effectively elsewhere. It almost seems to be used as a threat - "go back to the office or they'll outsource your job". Well if they can they will, and me going back to the office tomorrow morning is unlikely to make them change their mind.

It's about time people went back to the office in my opinion. If the job can be done away from the office, why not outsource to a cheaper country? I have some admiration for the boss of Pimlico Plumbers who apparently offered to sack people who refused to get back to work

You are confusing people who do their jobs from home (or the beach or a co-working hub or up a mountain) and those who have been furloughed. Pimlico Plumbers were having problems with the latter. You can't work as a plumber from home!

@StealthPolarBear

What people seem to be missing is that if the op is right (and I genuinely don't know) then surely the die is already cast. Us all returning to the offices isn't going to change the fact that the work can be done cheaper and as effectively elsewhere. It almost seems to be used as a threat - "go back to the office or they'll outsource your job". Well if they can they will, and me going back to the office tomorrow morning is unlikely to make them change their mind.

Yep. If a job is better outsourced, the last 6 months will have provided ample evidence.

Automation in medicine has been going on for a long time. Think of the pregnancy test. Time was it was done by the doctor and sent off. Now you can pee on a stick and have the answer in a few minutes in the comfort of your own home.

Lots of skin prick blood tests are done remotely. Tests are being developed for a range of diseases which give results in minutes rather than hours or days. Initially they will be done by doctors but very soon after they will be done at home. This can result in speedier, more accurate diagnosis.

The government had better roll out UBI then if there won’t be any jobs!

Ha! I think this government is more likely to invest in the flying pig company than ubi

Turning this on its head a bit, now that there is a lot more wfh in various jobs - does anyone UK based plan to apply for jobs advertised in US, Australia, etc? I suspect not - most professional jobs are place-based in some way, plus as already mentioned, time zones are important!

I know the situation is different for lower skilled office jobs but I don’t think the world will suddenly see hordes of UK professionals applying and being offered their equivalent role elsewhere. So why would the reverse happen with U.K. based roles going to people based thousands of miles away?

I imagine the elite will be in their gated mansions with drone guards and the rest of us will be scrabbling around in the dust for food. It’ll be a return to the feudal system but we won’t be of any use to the “elite” this time.

I’m going to enjoy WFH then if the future is inevitable!

@FluffyKittensinabasket

Okay so all the jobs are outsourced or automated, what next? No income tax, no corporation tax.

Mass cull of the population?

No we just have to recognise and appreciate change and importantly be agile, adaptable and proactive. The globe, populations and lifestyles are constantly evolving. First where the ancient Egyptians, then Chinese who initially invented many basics, then the various mass movements of peoples to new worlds including European colonisation empires, then the British lead industrialisation and now digitalisation robotic automation and new mobile smart ways of service productivity. Obviously very brief generalisations but the general trend holds true. The times of English language as the global business platform will probably still be relevant but people are now more easily interchangeable as many poorer less developed nations step up their education game and more achieve acceptable standard basic university level intelligence and learning. We use to rule the globe (well a third at its peak) but now continental Eastern Europe and former colonies in the developing world like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan etc will possibly have enough university level educated populations which global companies can leverage for profit. Let's not forget for most consumers (and by extension clients) we prefer and demand value and do not discriminate as to origin of service (mainstream non specialist nor highly technical) or product as nobody cares if the call centre technical admin support is an Indian in India or one in the UK/Ireland as long as there is free personal banking etc etc as just one small example. Highly skilled professional specialist roles will remain geographically relevant as will those that obviously have a larger element of necessary people to people real world interaction like client site visits etc. In short the established first world ie us, North America, Western Europe, Far East and Australia/New Zealand all need to step up our employability skills and knowledge game before the increased equalisation of high level education and specialist skills and abilities globally. Sure culture and local customer and client knowledge will be important but increasingly with remote technologies some of this can be virtually acquired too. I never mind for instance working with Dutch professionals as sure they are not necessarily cheaper than London city folks but their English as a second language is remarkably excellent as how many Brits can speak fluent Dutch for example.

I work as a PA, I have easily wfh, my concern is so has my colleague in Newcastle but on half the salary. Why will the keep me employed in London. It’s a real concern.

The kind of person who could do my work would frankly want my salary too. Even if they did live in a country with far lower living costs. My job would have required them to have a postgraduate degree from the UK or US and to have done this they’d likely be very wealthy in their own country.

No. I work in a contact centre and it won't be outsourced

To add, our customers complain if it's not someone in the same town they're speaking to, let alone a different country. The complaints would be insane
If you're ringing to book your rolls Royce in for a service at a London garage, do you want to speak to someone in the UK or abroad?

I'm inclined to think that most companies would have already outsourced work if it would meet their needs.

My job is skilled in a specific way and I significantly doubt it will be outsourced.For starters, the awarding bodies for the required qualifications are UK based. I imagine many companies will want to retain the ability for employees to be physically present occasionally.

Well OP you seem to have made up your mid already. I do think that it would be a big stretch for many in the industry I work in to use overseas workers, as said previously not because of lack of qualifications but because of lack of experience/ability to adapt to the culture of the industry. In other industries it may be doable but the symptom that someone is cheaper and so will cost less assumes the same productivity. As you mentioned your phone support took twice as long on phone to India so they may not cost less even if they’re “cheaper” by the hour. I recall some companies moved work force back to the U.K. because of this. So it’s not quite as simple as if you can work anywhere we can get it cheaper.

@museumum

The kind of person who could do my work would frankly want my salary too. Even if they did live in a country with far lower living costs. My job would have required them to have a postgraduate degree from the UK or US and to have done this they’d likely be very wealthy in their own country.

Or they'd have 'brain drained' and now be living in or even citizens of the US, UK or other 'western' country - like many of my current colleagues. They wouldn't have been allowed to do their jobs from some of their countries of origin. Maybe that will start to change - which isn't a bad thing is it? I don't suppose that my Chinese colleagues would be allowed to return to China and continue in their jobs though.

My job is skilled in a specific way and I significantly doubt it will be outsourced.For starters, the awarding bodies for the required qualifications are UK based. I imagine many companies will want to retain the ability for employees to be physically present occasionally.

All of which could be done by employing people for 20% less in a cheaper part of the UK.

The Tories and the right side of the political spectrum are focused on professionals "returning to work" (as if we'd ever stopped working? - insulting in itself) purely to fill the pockets of London property landlords (aka Tory party donors). They do so under the cover of saving our city centre Prets.

What they haven't predicted is that the private sector won't fall for this pseudo-argument. Work can be done efficiently from home, saving money and the environment and improving the lifestyle and wellbeing of staff. People with sufficient level of experience that enables them to work remotely should always be given an option to work remotely or part-remotely, or come in regularly if that's what they wish to do. The only reasons why we have to come in are in my view: training and continuous professional development (which in some professions works best if done in a group), training of junior staff (to ensure they learn practical skills under personal supervision), business planning (if done in a group on a brainstorming basis) and of course client meetings and events. If you think about it, most of them can be dealt with in a smaller size city centre office or actually as away sessions, depending on the size of the business.

Employers don't need massive, expensive HQs, we don't need to travel on shitty and overpriced public transport or pay extortionate parking fees, polluting the environment. We don't need to be constantly stressed in traffic. We don't need to be spending money on overpriced, fattening lunches in chain restaurants that no one truly likes. They do not contribute to our economy, they do not pay taxes here, do not invest in their staff, often treat them shoddily and pay them peanuts. I'd much rather support independent local employers, wholeheartedly.

I do not wish to spend my money on filling the pockets of hedge fund owners and land owners, this isn't a feudal system and we can think critically for ourselves, which BJ and the rest of his cronies have failed to appreciate. A severe error of judgement, not many will fall for this silly "outsourcing", "redundancies" and "back to work (?!)" rhetoric.

All of which could be done by employing people for 20% less in a cheaper part of the UK.

I mean, I live in rural Northumberland, so I'd be amazed if they could find a cheaper area!

The fact remains that my job (like many) requires an understanding of the local community. Most employees aren't just numbers on a page, they are individuals with particular knowledge and experience.

And London outsourcing was a long time coming, we've had how many years of "tired Londoners" moving here "for quality of life" and "better work life balance", taking professional local jobs off the local market that were few and far between comparing to London and buying numerous properties pricing the locals out of the market and limiting the market choices even further. I understand it's unpleasant to have the prospect of tasting your own medicine.

@Alongcameacat - Yes a lot of WFH jobs will be outsourced. I see a lot of outsourcing contracts in my role. Sadly we are all replaceable and your replacement just may not be as great as you, but most companies are looking at costs, not giving you job security.

What will likely happen? Salaries will level off. Maybe even more centralised currencies being used.

What do you need to do now? You need to find out (a) what you are good at and (b) what your accessible economies want. Like @JessicaBlack101 said "So anyone who is concerned - figure out the specialty or niche in your type of work and learn it now." And remember what @Dastardlythefriendlymutt said "I do think we overestimate British exceptionalism sometimes."

In terms of the point @SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito re: accountant salaries in Newcastle vs London, I think that it would be brill if anyone around the country could apply to any role. But within our own country, we will find that London/high salary city centre salaries will be the first to go.

In terms of both @Tadpolesandfroglets (IT) and @Worstyear2020 (training up their replacements, sorry to hear this!), this is the way of the future. Companies typically have you train your replacement. IT will also be the first to go. One of the big four accountancy firms use Scotland a lot. One of the banks use East Asia (sorry @Sophoa & @Ginfordinner, many people do not mind working from 8pm to 8am if it means they can change their life for a UK salary.)

@Mintjulia small world, I've also seen something outsourced to Romania. But, as @DelurkingAJ says, it is so clear when it comes from the outsource team there sadly.

The experiences of @Livelovebehappy and @user1471432735 give us hope, I guess that companies realise much is lost when outsourcing to another country. As @Newjez points out, it is hard to make it work. But the salary savings are clear and companies will continue to outsource.

@GingerScallop "I think the questions are who will be replaced and the scale." As you say, those roles that cannot be done remotely. IT and admin to start (including all support staff and any call centre work.) You'll be surprised how many roles do not need to be filled by those will access to city centres or even in the UK.
It will dip in and out of both in country and off shore until the balance is found.

@Crazycatlady2020 "How would it affect the economy if all of a sudden there was a lot less PAYE?" Economies will adjust.

@SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito

My job is skilled in a specific way and I significantly doubt it will be outsourced.For starters, the awarding bodies for the required qualifications are UK based. I imagine many companies will want to retain the ability for employees to be physically present occasionally.

All of which could be done by employing people for 20% less in a cheaper part of the UK.

That's good, on the whole. Great for kids who don't have to leave rural communities or faded seaside resorts to find decent work. Great for enabling social mobility without enforcing physical mobility.