If they f***ING delay the GCSE results I will not be accountable for my actions

[ScrapThatThen]

They need to sort it out before Thursday or allow centre assessed grades.

I work in children's mental health. Stop heaping unfairness on unfairness and uncertainty on uncertainty. Give them 2 weeks notice of where their life goes next fgs.

Don't know why people are saying it is just state, it's not. My school sent out an email saying some had been downgrading and were helping with appeals.

OK, so if the 40% wasn't unjustified grade inflation, what is the normal reduction in a normal year between predicted and actual grades? Ofqual, schools, etc must have that kind of data! Surely there's an average downgrade to account for poor performance on the day, family problems during revision period, etc etc. If that's 40% in a normal year, then fair enough, but if not, then clearly there was unjustified grade inflation with the CAGs.

@mrscampbellblackagain

My DC is staying at his current school for sixth form but with colleges - does the current school do a reference and then they get an offer? Assume, colleges could just proceed with all offers if that is the case or do they over offer?

Dd is staying on at her school 6 form and we have already had conformation of her place (before results) Due to her predicted grades. Schools know what children are capable of so I’m sure for those staying in at their school for 6 form will have some advantage on getting a place.

Good luck for Thursday x

Here in Wales, Labour devolved administration and equally shambolic
It's just the fucking icing on a shit cake

@Vivalasjohnnyvegas

Don't know why people are saying it is just state, it's not. My school sent out an email saying some had been downgrading and were helping with appeals.

We have a couple of high performing state selective grammar schools - both have said they've got a high number of anomalies and will be appealing, so it's not just state/weaker schools that have been hit by the algorithm.

Anyone know why the results weren't announced in July as was the original plan?

Because our f’ing idiot government decided that CAGs weren’t enough and they were going to run them all through their bullshit computer program so that go to schools for peasants don’t get above themselves.
That’s why.

@Hobnobswantshernameback

Here in Wales, Labour devolved administration and equally shambolic It's just the fucking icing on a shit cake

Like Scotland, different governments, but same kind of incompetents in the civil service/quangos making these mistakes and not even noticing!

@SmileEachDay

TunnocksOrDeath

I think the majority of the “over inflation” was inevitable-

I have 8 students who I can evidence could achieve a C.
If they took the exam, chances are some wouldn’t get it - they’d get a D.
I have no way of knowing which ones.
So - who do I mark down?

Ofqual should have accepted CAGs for all centres who were broadly in line with historical results - maybe within 5%, because it would be very unusual to see an increase bigger than that in a year. Centres submitting CAGs way beyond that should have been challenged and asked to submit again, more realistically.

That’s also what should happen for GCSEs.(except there probably now isn’t time for schools to re submit)

Totally agree!

It's been very unfairly done, but the kids need their results on Thursday, they've been through enough.
Mine just wants to know how many she failed and what resits she has.

@Badbadbunny The problem is that there is indeed a reduction each year between predicted grades and final results - but in normal years it is known which pupils are affected because there is an exam paper. The pupils who get a lower mark than predicted are those who underperformed in the exam. There is proof, evidence, and those pupils who get a lower grade can be clearly identified.

That is not the case this year - there is no exam paper. So you can't just downgrade pupils who never sat the exam.
You can't moderate something that doesn't exist.

It is not the borderline pupils who automatically underperform. It is relatively random - illness, pet dies, oversleep, girlfriend breaks up with you, didn't revise the topic in the high-mark last question, didn't turn over the page, etc. Any of those things can happen to the pupil who is ranked top for a 9 as well as the pupil who is marked lowest for a 9. Or the same for grade 4s and all the other grades.

@Dohorseseatapples

Anyone know why the results weren't announced in July as was the original plan?

Because our f’ing idiot government decided that CAGs weren’t enough and they were going to run them all through their bullshit computer program so that go to schools for peasants don’t get above themselves.
That’s why.

Or was it that the CAGS were 40% too high which would have resulted in crazily high grade inflation which would devalue the qualifications so they had to do something to standardise them to close to historic normal levels at each grade?

I can just imagine all the media hype and SM criticism if there were twice as many people getting A*s and As as in normal years with shouts of how unfair it was to previous and future cohorts.

Even with the 40% reduction, there's still a 2% increase in numbers achieving the higher grades which is probably what they determined to be the maximum acceptable variation from the norm.

They should have just gone with CAGS to start with. Yes, there probably would have been grade inflation, but so what. If it was across the board, at least there would have been a level playing field. There would still have been moderation, to make sure schools weren't taking the piss. But, you know what, although some Mumsnetters may find it hard to believe, teachers are professional and I believe would have been fair.
Some disadvantaged pupils (and others) might have got better grades than they otherwise might have. Would that be so awful?
It also would have meant that results could have come out earlier. Therefore, if 6th forms and further education were oversubscribed, it would have given time for these issues to be sorted out. I don't speak with hindsight; I had this conversation with someone about 4 months ago when be both foresaw exactly the issues we are having now.

@LimitIsUp

CAGS all the way.

Also I thought we were still a United Kingdom? It is not reasonable that in Scotland A levels were awarded on CAGs and in Northern Ireland GCSE's will be awarded on CAGs but not in other parts of the Union.

Having had dd downgraded in A levels I am basically not now sleeping at night in anticipation of GCSE results for ds on Thursday

eh...you have heard of devolution?!

The thing is, the govt missed an opportunity here- they could have awarded pupils their CAGs, and then placed all the blame and acrimony at teachers' feet, and directed complaints there! What a massive wheeze, can't believe they passed that one up!

The 40% grade downgrade does not correspond to there having been a 40% grade inflation.

For A levels it is only a 12% increase in the overall year group.

For GCSEs it is only a 9% increase in the overall year group.

And that increase is not due to 'inflation' of grades but because no-one can pinpoint which pupil would have underperformed.

in normal years it is known which pupils are affected because there is an exam paper

This is a really important distinction- schools often recall the papers of students who either just missed a grade or who have a surprisingly low result. We can look at them and see what went wrong, or in some cases ask for a remark.

The way this years grading has happened there is nowhere near that level of precision.

2% increase in numbers achieving the higher grades

That’s an average. There was a rise of 4% in private schools. That will have “used up” more space in the A/A* band - this will Gav’s has an impact down through every other band...

OMG can you stop saying it is a 40% increase?

A levels - 12%
GCSE - 9%

At the end of the day, the moment they announced that exams wouldn't go ahead, it was obvious there'd be winners and losers - what other outcome could there be?

Of course, the exams should have gone ahead - the knee jerk reaction to cancel so soon into Covid was THE mistake. Once that had happened, there was never going to be a fair outcome for all.

For those who've been affected, clearing has more places then ever, even at top unis on top courses, such as a top 10 Maths degree usually AAA entry available in clearing at ABC. At least badly affected students have options, either a different course/uni, a year out, resit, appeal, etc. I know a year out seems like a disaster when you're a teenager, but it's all long forgotten when you're in your 30's with a settled career, family, etc.

When you compare it to the 3 MILLION self employed who fell through the cracks in the Covid support and have lost homes, businesses, livelihoods, some being made bankrupt, others having taken their own lives, and with the media completely ignoring all that, yes, it's unfair to students to have their plans disrupted, but there's a way back for them. Lots of students don't get their predicted grades and have to go through clearing, lots take gap years etc. For GCSE students, schools and colleges still need to fill their courses so there'll be entry flexibility - yes, may not be your first choice, but there will be options.

Or was it that the CAGS were 40% too high which would have resulted in crazily high grade inflation which would devalue the qualifications

SISRA & FFT ran a service that checked for massive data anomalies before schools submitted their grades.
Schools that didn’t do this and submitted stupidly inflated grades deserve to be queried. Have they done this? No.

And that increase is not due to 'inflation' of grades but because no-one can pinpoint which pupil would have underperformed.

If someone gave you a list of your local school's predicted grades and ranking order. How would decide who has their grade lowered by a grade? Would you automatically take the lowest ranked pupil in each grade? What is that pupil had a really good exam and would actually have got a grade higher? What is the top ranked pupil didn't turn over the last page?
It is only fair just to accept the 9% overall increase and accept that means each individual pupil gets the fairest most accurate grade.

It us a difficult one for sure. Exam boards should have got off their arses and requested moderation in schools where the results seemed too generous and downgraded if necessary . Than CAGS would be as fair as possible.
Dds school has has less movement in grades than other local schools. Could be because classes are smaller (no idea if true) or because teachers have been more realistic.
If the latter relying on CAGS will discriminate against her cohort.
It is a total mess.

They should have just gone with CAGS to start with. Yes, there probably would have been grade inflation, but so what. If it was across the board, at least there would have been a level playing field.

Maybe level playing field for that age group, but not against the years before and after. When it comes to Uni and job applications, the 2020 cohort would be massively advantaged and those who took their exams before/after would be at an unfair disadvantage.

We still see it today with "mature" people applying for jobs who took their O and A levels back in the 70s and 80s in the days when barely anyone got A grades and most people, Unis and employers were happy with B,C and D. Someone applying for a job today with D grades at A levels (taken back then) would be laughed at compared with equally intelligent people a couple of decades younger with their A and B grades.

It's also the case that some schools adjusted CAGs to match previous years grades to avoid being downgraded by OFQUAL. So even with CAG some pupils will be disappointed

40% up is not just a few teachers thinking "can't tell if they'd get a B or a C so I gave them a B", and the students who have an unexpected bad set of exams.

40% up means 2 people out of every 5 sitting on the borderline, which isn't right.

I have 8 students who I can evidence could achieve a C.
If they took the exam, chances are some wouldn’t get it - they’d get a D.
I have no way of knowing which ones.
So - who do I mark down?

Which ones did you rank lowest? Those ones.