Universities should honour all offers and ignore flawed A-level grades

[Notusuallyshocked]

Worcester College, Oxford, are treating this year's A-level results with the scepticism they deserve...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53780498?intlink_from_url=&link_location=live-reporting-story

They've said they will honour all offers regardless of A level grades.

AIBU to think all universities should do the same?

Especially now the algorithm determining A-level grades has been shown to be unfair:

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/14/do-the-maths-why-englands-a-level-grading-system-is-unfair

Since the results have only a tenuous link with an individual student's ability/performance, no individual student should miss out on their university place due to this complete mess.

But I find this whole debacle contrary to everything the university admissions process stands for...which is centred around determining, as far as possible, the individual potential of each student and their suitability to study the course in question

Well there was a pandemic and the population screaming for schools to shut. And how do you tie this with your desire to run a lottery for students to get places?

how do you tie this with your desire to run a lottery for students to get places?

What we have at the moment is worse than a lottery. At least a lottery would give everyone an equal chance of being downgraded.

Your child assigned three As is not necessarily 'cleverer' than the student assigned BBC. The algorithm merely worked in their favour (historically high-achieving school, favourite with the teacher, small cohort...). Talk about a kick in the face for disadvantaged children at poor schools.

If the exam board had to 'downgrade' 30% of teacher grades to maintain 'integrity' in the system, it would have been more honest to have made it a complete lottery - pick 30% of student grades and bump them down. Then at least we could move past any pretence of this being fair for individual students.

This year’s fiasco is grossly unfair to students and goes against everything that universities strive to do in their complex admissions processes, especially the area around contextual admissions.

That said, the universities will have had the grades since last weekend, and I have no idea whether they will have been working with the knowledge that students who are already at a disadvantage by being from a non traditional background and possibly a historically less good school were more likely to have been downgraded. It’s possible they did and allowed for it in their acceptances. It’s unlikely to have been uniform across even departments within the same university and definitely not between different universities.

I do have skin in the game - not directly though. I have previously worked in the university admissions area, and recruitment and widening participation. I am also exactly the type of student who would have a chance of being harshly treated in this system. I’m a high performing student (3 As in science subjects at A level) from a non traditional background (first in family, isolated rural location, educated at a FE college who were woefully underprepared for assisting applicants to top tier universities). I know that this is unfair, and I also know that it’s probably far too complex to unpick now except for in a small number of cases.

To everyone with kids affected by this then the only wisdom I have to offer is that I didn’t get the offers I wanted in the subjects I wanted from the universities I wanted. I applied to uni through UCAS extra, around the time of my exams. I was welcomed with open arms to my RG uni and STEM department, and I’ve made a pretty good career as a result. I wouldn’t go back and change things but it was very unsettling and upsetting at the time.

Is the offering of university places governed by any type of enforceable regulation?

If not won't each university decide how best to fill their available places, admissions departments must be able to work out the best way forward for them. I don't suppose any kind of blanket solution would be possible or desirable.

@PleasantVille there are things like caps on numbers (in place this year, but not all years, changes with the whims of the government). But mostly, universities will have spent a lot of hours this week deciding whose places they are going to confirm. All other students will be released into clearing.

Clearing is a massive scramble because no universities will really know beforehand how many students will be released from other universities. They might have broad information about general trends in results (which they cannot share with anyone, not even other colleagues not involved), but they won’t know how their competitors will respond, whether they will ‘confirm down’ on their acceptances, or whether they will release anyone who doesn’t meet their offer. All universities want to maximise their intake, especially this year, as the sector is drowning in financial chaos thanks to covid, but they won’t want to take students who are ‘unteachable’.

So on the Thursday morning the universities enter clearing, usually with large makeshift call centres fielding calls from students, and a bunfight begins! With students and universities all vying for the best outcomes.

we know a fair few students from ds school who didn’t meet their offers and were still given places at Oxbridge and some of those dropped several grades.

A lot depends on the college and the course. It also depends on the offer. The lowest offer I have come across was EE for an Oxford college. They really wanted that particular student. This was back in the days of grants and you needed 2 A Levels to get the grant.

Back to honouring all applicants, you can't just magically create new academics to teach, and Oxford's system isn't based on lectures where you can shove an extra 10 people in the back of the room.

If the grades don't accurately or fairly reflect what you should've got that needs rectified.

Even when you graduate they ask for A Level results.

You may not get on graduate schemes if your A Level grades are too low despite the uni or the degree

I agree that all Universities should have given what was offered.

Sassh, the EE for Oxford offer was standard (I had one myself) until the mid 1990s. Entrance depended upon the university’s own entrance exam, followed by interviews, followed by an unconditional (EE) offer. Oxford ended this system in 1995/6. They didn’t offer this as a special boon to particular applicants.

The better unis don't over offer much. I do think they could have arranged it do that DC go to either their first choice or insurance tho -that could have been easily 'algorithmised' and much less disruption and disappointment.
For those who did not apply they could have had grades with a 2020 prefix and then in subsequent applications could have maybe done a supplementary entrance test.
I am a teacher and have a sixth form tutor group and have Ben helping my tutors who missed first choice to phone and explain re mocks, reasons wanting to be on course etc and it has been successful in al but one case /that uni not taking calls till Monday. Definitely call the universities/they need to fill the places!

Where is the physical capacity going to come from?

Unis offer to the max capacity in many courses, with a calculated drop off due to not getting grades.

This is already challenging due to Covid.

Where is the physical capacity going to come from?

What do you intend to do about the fines if the unis exceed their MaSN?

the university’s own entrance exam
And they were much more onerous than the subject tests now -very labour intensive to set mark and administer.

It’s not a game. It’s three years of work. They need to pick the students most capable

For most courses, anyone getting A-C at least would be capable, not only the A students. Grades are used to select for oversubscribed courses, not necessarily as a marker of who is capable, when the selection is between someone who got an A or an A.

Unless you think say, something like Law is more difficult to study at Oxford than it is an ex poly university.

Whilst I think that universities should be honouring their offers if they can, it won't always be possible for them to fit them in.

I imagine giving everyone their first choice would also have a huge impact on the universities further down the 'pecking order', who would normally be expecting to pick up students who made it their reserve choice, or through clearing.

Obviously it is very different this year as students weren't given the opportunity to sit the exam and some of the awarded grades appear to be unreasonably low, but every year there are students who are disappointed with their grades, don't get into their first choice university, and nevertheless go on to have a great experience elsewhere.

Is it also a bit unfair on those who did manage to get the grades? Not sure how many that applies to but shouldn't those students get first choice like they would a normal year? Then fill the places with those who got the next highest.
Maybe not fair but they simply can't offer everyone a place.

Is it also a bit unfair on those who did manage to get the grades?

Not really. You see....they didn't manage to get the grades. No one managed to get any grades because no one sat any exams. The results have nothing to do with individual effort or achievement. The triple A student is not necessarily brighter or harder working than the ABC student this year. They just lucked out statistically (based on school type etc.). At least in a normal year, if you bomb your exams, you only have yourself to blame.

Too late now, but a lottery system randomly allocating places to those holding offers where the course is oversubscribed would have been the fairest option. At least then all students would have had an equal chance of keeping their university places.

They over offer, so a lot can't. Birmingham was refusing some people who had made their offers in some courses as they were full. They aren't allowed to do that.

Ucas regulations state that if you made your offer, the uni has to accept you, so they couldn't do lottery.

Is the offering of university places governed by any type of enforceable regulation
Yes. This year the government has reintroduced student number controls with huge financial penalties if a university over recruits by more than 5%.
Some universities will have enough of a financial buffer to over recruit a little but not many.

Plus as others have mentioned over recruiting has other implications- staffing being a main one. Lots of universities have already implemented voluntary severance schemes. They simply don't have the staff to teach and support huge numbers of additional students.

Then we have social distancing ....Teaching spaces on campus have a massively reduced capacity in order to comply with social distancing. We can't take loads of extra students because we don't have the space to teach them!

I thought the grades were based on work done so far. I don't know as thankfully my children are a bit too young for this.
I do feel sorry for the Y13s though and suspect it'll be as bad next week when the Y11s get their results.

For goodness sake - no!!!!

I agree that they should offer some latitude, but to honour every single offer regardless of grade, no. That isn't in anyone's best interest.

I also don't think they should hold over offers to next year either. That will impact all the new students trying to get in next year, which would be just as unfair.

It's also worth noting 2 things:

1. The grades are STILL better than last year overall.
2. Grade adjustment happens EVERY year.

"Universities will be fined for over recruitment and could have next years fees capped which would be a financial death penalty"

The government should cancel fines and capping for this year, just let the Unis take as many as they can handle

@BigChocFrenzy

"Universities will be fined for over recruitment and could have next years fees capped which would be a financial death penalty"

The government should cancel fines and capping for this year, just let the Unis take as many as they can handle

The government specifically implemented these fines for this year.

@Jaxhog

For goodness sake - no!!!!

I agree that they should offer some latitude, but to honour every single offer regardless of grade, no. That isn't in anyone's best interest.

I also don't think they should hold over offers to next year either. That will impact all the new students trying to get in next year, which would be just as unfair.

It's also worth noting 2 things:

1. The grades are STILL better than last year overall.
2. Grade adjustment happens EVERY year.

.... Huge difference this year at the individual level and very unfair for many

Even though the total national figures may look OK, it hides the problem that many have been downgraded as well as upgraded

Ofqal checked their model by seeing how well it could predict the 2019 resultls, since they are obviously known now

As a result of this check, Ofqal say their model will only predict the correct grades for about 45-65% of students' exams, depending on the subject

i.e. they will be wrong 35-55% of the time for the individual, but some will be up and some will be down

Awarding GCSE, AS & A levels in summer 2020: interim report

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report

"The government specifically implemented these fines for this year."

Then they fucked up - yet again - and need to U turn

The least bad option is to accept the teachers' CAGs and allow the Unis to take all the students they can handle

How the A-level results algorithm was fatally flawed

Easy explanation & background

https://tech.newstatesman.com/public-sector/how-the-a-level-results-algorithm-was-fatally-flawed

“If you’re at a high performing school, it’s much more likely under-performers benefitted from over-prediction of their grades,”
says Wilkinson.

“At low-performing schools, high-performers have been shifted down:
they have all been shifted towards the average of the school performance over the previous three years.”

The overall results show record highs for A and A*s, but that doesn’t mean that the right students received them.

“They’ve gone for an approach which somehow maintains the integrity of the overall system, but I think there’s a lot of individual unfairness […],”
says Nason, chair in statistics at Imperial College.