A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

@WombatChocolate

So even though students may have been told CAGs today, until today their wildly optimistic UCAS grade was their reference point. That has made the gap in attainment harder for many to understand and come to terms with.

That depends on your school surely? Not every school gives wildly optimistic UCAS grades.

Wombat is again spot on. Every year I point out to my A level class that typically 1 of them will get an A* and they are always shocked.

I don't think this would ever have felt fair and since the banishing of continuous assessment from coursework in most A-Levels a lack of data for basing the decision on or at least less robust data.

BUT

In the sector, long know that only 16% of UCAS applicants meet their predicted grades. 75% have over predicted grades, with state schools doing this more than private and lower attaining students more likely to have over predicted grades.

detailed report from 2016 here:

www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf

Surly loads of unis will end up undersubscribed?!

If they weren't going to trust the teacher grades they should have asked for mock grades, GCSE grades and GCSE mocks, plus any other relevant marks for each pupil as well as the teacher grade. Then used all of the information to make a grade per pupil.

There was plenty of time.

@Bouledeneige

My DS just told me of a friend at school who was not A star material but decided he wanted to apply for Oxbridge. He therefore asked his teachers to give him good predictions which they duly did. They predicted A* AA (or thereabouts) and he was offered a place - a realistic assessment would have been more like BBB. Today he got his results and got ABC and apparently the college accepted him on the basis of his predictions. I'm not sure if thats entirely correct in detail but its the gist (DS gets arsey if I keep asking details!!).

However, I'm not sure that if its true that its done the student any favours. Oxford is very hard work and many excellently qualified students find it extremely taxing. This friend might really struggle to keep up if he doesn't bring his A game. So I'm not sure inflated grading really does anyone a favour. Just an anecdote - not trying to rub salt in any wounds.

Bouledeneige something has got mangled in that story because it has not taken in to account the very difficult aptitude tests you have to do to get in to Oxford plus the three day interview process. If he had an offer from Oxford, he did bloody well on the aptitude test and on the interviews and the college was in a very good place to know if they thought the boy could keep up. I would suggest DS gets arsey about the details because the boy pushed for it, went for it, got it and is confirmed as having been right. It doesn't do any good to rub salt into wounds without thinking about the truth of them just a bit.

That depends on your school surely? Not every school gives wildly optimistic UCAS grades.

Exactly. Our UCAS grades were always them on their best day rather than strictly adhering to their average performance. So maybe one grade over but that’s it. The downgrading seems to be built to deal with that, which I totally agree with. The problem is we’ve got nailed on A grade students who have been given Cs. There are clearly students who have lost out unfairly. Hopefully that will be fixed with appeals but some will lose out on uni places which is pretty devastating for them.

Yes, lower performing schools seem to have had a bigger boost - because the gov cannot allow itself to be accused of bias against the disadvantaged. They will have worked hard on that.

Lots of people think their children have got lower grades because discrimination against their school was used ...but in reality, the ucas grades and then the CAG grades from teachers are actually more seriously inflated than by high performing schools. Again there is a massive gap between expectation and reality.

There are loads and loads of posters who say their child was working at A grade and had A grade prediction, but have got a C. But the statistics don’t support this - loads of such students always get Cs in reality and in honesty the schools usually know they will get Cs. There are hardly any saying their child had been significantly boosted up by the process. There is an expectation gap - loads of parents and kids have unrealistic expectations of what will be achieved in exam years and also this year. Schools don’t help this expectation gap really because perverse incentives draw them to perpetuate it.

If they weren't going to trust the teacher grades they should have asked for mock grades, GCSE grades and GCSE mocks, plus any other relevant marks for each pupil as well as the teacher grade. Then used all of the information to make a grade per pupil.

They already have GCSE grades. All the other data is unusable as it is not standardised between schools.

1) Phone the university if your DC haven't got the grades. Many unis will accept lower grades anyway and are currently very eager to hold onto students who are prepared to start this year

Not Bath - they say no phone calls, not putting up clearing courses til Monday. DD missed out. Predicted A*AA for UCAS, school awarded/entered AAA, given ABC... another one on the appeals train...

Also exploring other options, so not too down...

My friends daughter was predicted AAB and was downgraded to BBC, so lost her place at uni unless appeal is successful. Her school have evidence to support her predicted grades, and I would have though every school would have. I'm so upset for her

I've just had a very interesting conversation with son's headmaster (Top 10 public school). The algorithm is seriously flawed, they have it now and the head of maths is pulling it to pieces. He has spoken to the schools minister. Public school heads are FUMING. This is not going to go away.
Would be interested to hear if anyone else has spoken to headmaster and what is being done?
He also urged us to write to MPs which we've already done - please do think about this.

Surly loads of unis will end up undersubscribed?!

Some of their firm offer holders will have met the grades and have their place. They will then decide if they want to adjust for offer holders who have missed meeting their offer grades and by how much and then fill a few more places. Any places left they will put into clearing.

Spoiler alert - this is what happens EVERY year as only 16% of students meet their predicted grades.

She got a B in mocks, was predicted a B but got an E!!

I would love to hear the gov try and justify this. It's an absolute outrage

@Toptotoeunicolour

I've just had a very interesting conversation with son's headmaster (Top 10 public school). The algorithm is seriously flawed, they have it now and the head of maths is pulling it to pieces. He has spoken to the schools minister. Public school heads are FUMING. This is not going to go away. Would be interested to hear if anyone else has spoken to headmaster and what is being done? He also urged us to write to MPs which we've already done - please do think about this.

Wow, that's definitely the way to go - showing objectively how the mathematically the algorithm/formula is unreliable.

It’s a shit show alright some of ds1s friends have been downgraded by 2 or even 3 marks Ds1 today got A,distinction , distinction * he was already unconditional at his chosen uni but he feels for his friends.
I’m so nervous for ds2 next week he really needs 4s in maths and English to secure his apprenticeship his predicted grades are a 5 and 4

Yes, lower performing schools seem to have had a bigger boost - because the gov cannot allow itself to be accused of bias against the disadvantaged. They will have worked hard on that.

This could be why grammar schools by me are saying that their results are the worst ever whereas the two "comprehensives" by me are celebrating their (unusally) "outstanding" results. That is not fair.

@HipTightOnions

If they weren't going to trust the teacher grades they should have asked for mock grades, GCSE grades and GCSE mocks, plus any other relevant marks for each pupil as well as the teacher grade. Then used all of the information to make a grade per pupil.

They already have GCSE grades. All the other data is unusable as it is not standardised between schools.

I know it's not standardised, but they should have taken every possible piece of information to make these decisions before trashing kids' uni choices.

My son's school also has the "worst ever" and it's a Top 10 league table school. Worse than any of the past three years.

The term “downgrading” is misleading and emotive
It assumes that the teachers’ predictions are somehow the “true” grade which has been arbitrarily changed by a heartless algorithm.
Teachers’ predictions are, for lots of good reasons, very optimistic. They would have resulted in a massive and unrealistic grade inflation this year.

I agree with this. Teachers predicted grades are inaccurate. Especially with middle grades ( ie, it’s easier to predict a AAA student than a BBC student). There is plenty of data on this. As a whole the grades this year have not been ‘downgraded’ , in fact they have gone up from last year. It’s the distribution of the individual grades that is the issue.

Radio 4 just had a lunch time news item and mentioned one school where hardly anyone did geography but they had an E last year. So this year in the new system there "had" to be an E. The person with the lowest predicted grade this year (a good year) ws predicted B. They were therefore the unlucky one given the E. Obviously 1. schools should appeal and 2. it is worth doing the A level exam in October (results will be out by Christmas) for many www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-cancellation-of-gcses-as-and-a-levels-in-2020/coronavirus-covid-19-cancellation-of-gcses-as-and-a-levels-in-2020

HAS ANYONE'S CHILD got what they were predicted??

My DC aren't in year 13 but their school has apparently had its best ever A Level results, so yes. Dire inner city red light district postcode but good selective independent with a consistent track record of high marks.