To ask your prediction on how things will be exactly one year from today?

[cheeseandhambaguette]

Like many I’m feeling very lost and overwhelmed with the whole COVID situation, particularly the ‘never-ending’ feeling (although obviously very thankful to be alive and well at the same time!). Nobody seems to know what the future may have in store so I’m very interested to hear anyone’s opinions or feelings on what life will be like this time next year?

Well arent you all little rays of sunshine?

I dont understand the attitude of assuming everything will be awful forever and only get worse and worse. War, famine, pestilence... Why not have a bit of positivity?

The likelihood is that we will have far more treatment options by next year, given that we already have 2 quite effective treatments after only 4 months research, and many more in the pipeline. We are also likely to be on the way to a vaccine, if there isnt one already.

Since the start I've felt that we were looking at a year minimum to get back to any sort of normality. This winter is going to be tough, no question. But by Spring 2021 there is hope of a vaccine, treatments will continue to improve and to an extent we will have learned to live with the uncertainty of local restrictions going up and down to keep on top of the virus. So hopefully things will be brighter then.

My two biggest worries are 1. Long covid and what happens to those people who can't get better. 2. Decimation of our cities (due to reduced demand for offices, lack of tourism and impossibility of reopening bars, clubs, theatres etc) and what that means for the economy.

I think some more progressive workplaces will have moved more permanently to home working, where possible - possibly with monthly face to face get togethers.

Schools that have coped well with bringing in online learning will be on standby to do it again at short notice and will be asked to help schools that have not.

There may be some realisation of how precious our NHS is and support for a ringfenced increase in taxation to support health and social care.

The landscape of the high street, shopping centres, the arts and leisure industry will have changed forever and be more sparse. Online retailing and streamed events will continue to evolve.

People will have spent money they would have on holidays and leisure on improving their home environment to make staying at home more a nicer experience.

If a vaccine hasn’t yet been developed, work will still be progressing steadily towards this.

I think the majority will stop wearing masks as soon as they are allowed. Retailers will have totally given up on trying to enforce this due to staff being abused when they try.

Friendship groups will have been weakened based on who did follow the SD rules and who didn’t.

Those who have had to shield will continue a reclusive lifestyle and mental health will suffer significantly.

I think that if we think things are bad at the moment, it's only going to get worse. There is going to be massive unemployment and quite possibly a lot more homeless people in the UK. Taxes will have to rise to cover all the money that has been spent (and certain benefits may be cut). I can't see the virus ever going away as there is no guarantee any vaccine will work long term. If the government continues to implement (at short notice) contradictory rules there will eventually be civil disobedience as everybody will just get fed up with endless restrictions. On top of this there is the uncertainty of the effect brexit will have. Millions of people worldwide will be displaced because their economy has been destroyed, putting pressure on Europe and North America. China and Russia will continue to bully and intimidate, leading to even more tension.
I can't see that anything positive is going to come out of this.

🙄

I think that socially we will be back to normal with friends and family, which is a nice thought. I think this autumn and winter will be really awful with more waves and closures all round. I think they’ll start vaccinating in the autumn with priority groups first, and by late spring will have vaccinated the whole country. I think the lasting impact will be working from home where possible is normalised and supported. I think economically we’ll be in a bad place thanks to the legacy of this and Brexit, I suspect city centres will be altered but town centres may still be supported by local communities.

Why not have a bit of positivity?

Because it leads to disappointment. Pessimists get far more pleasant surprises.

If you rewind a year, the current situation would have seemed unthinkable.

A year from now, we will still be in a situation unpleasant enough that it doesn’t bear thinking about just now.

On the bright side, I predict that there will be some really cool hi-tec face masks available, and the absence of pressure to socialize will be a boon to those who, like me, have reclusive tendencies. Air pollution will still be relatively low overall and we’ll stand a chance of stopping climate change because shopping is not as easy as it once was and people have realized that there are other things in life.

Path one. The government sorts out test and trace, puts financial,buffers in for people forced to self isolate, provides temporary furlough for people in areas that get temporarily shut down, gains public support for its measures by coming down hard on public figures bending the rules,

Effect. Virus gets mostly controlled, job market is weak but unemployment lower than the levels seen in the north under thatcher, and falls rapidly with the vaccine. the increased freedom allowed by the vaccine kick starts a good recovery which cheers people up. The bill is paid off In 60 years time and over that time, life for everyone improves year on year so that the tax burden isn't really a burden. Vaccine deployed every year with flu vaccine to keep things ok

Path two try to lock up the vulnerable until, vaccine and allow the young to run free. Creates societal divide. High death rate as the vulnerable want to live and leakage between the two groups is unavoidable. NHS struggles to cope over the winter and more cancer surgery is delayed as a result. High suicide rates in the locked down group, and major mental health issues in the free group due to survivors guilt. Unemployment high as too many people are excluded from life, many of whom are at the richest part of their lives.

Path three. Where we are now. Over the winter we maintain our record as having the worst death rate in Europe and one of the worst in the world. Economy crashes due to lack of confidence , but no handouts to tide people over. Worst outcome for health and economy. Break up of union.

Learning from history often gives us an indication of what our future holds. Reading about the Spanish flu which was also a virus, it appears the only way to stop it Is strict quarantine. Shut borders for a start, otherwise it will never stop.

Yes because there have been absolutely no advances in medicine in the century since the Spanish flu.

I think it'll still be hard going. A hard Brexit will have happened along with the problems that brings and a vaccine, even if it is available, will take a while to administer to everyone. I predict the debate will shift to whether vaccination should be compulsory, and there will be concerns about how short-lived any immunity is and are we all going to need a booster every winter.

Many of the food and retail outlets in the high street will be boarded up. Socialising did come back on line but the state of the economy means that people have less disposable income (those still in work are taxed harder to pay for the cost of covid and subsequent social security costs) and got out of the habit of eating out so much, so now eat out far less. High street retailers pull out of physical space and do more online.

Nobody will be able to believe what a politician says as the truth is now optional.

The EU will be looking shoogly - it weathered covid but at a cost and now its wealthiest members will be struggling because of the recession, but so too will the poorest.

@IcedPurple

Learning from history often gives us an indication of what our future holds. Reading about the Spanish flu which was also a virus, it appears the only way to stop it Is strict quarantine. Shut borders for a start, otherwise it will never stop.

Yes because there have been absolutely no advances in medicine in the century since the Spanish flu.

Also arent we constantly being told that covid19 is not flu??

Spanish flu did stop without a strict quarantine though.

High street retailers pull out of physical space and do more online.
I do think this is likely. To be honest I think it would have happened anyway - more and more people shop online and high street retailers were going into administration left, right and centre even before covid and brexit.

Some interesting viewpoints :)

Interesting question! (Imagine if you had asked that late year how wrong everybody would have been 😀
I am a teacher and the last assignment I set my classes before the end of term was precisely that.
Luckily all submitted online so I will revisit next year and give a prize to the closest!
You should revisit this thread on a year's time and award a virtual prize to anyone who is close (and specific, not vague!)

I also predict that on here there’ll be about one thread a week called “AIBU to sort of miss lockdown??” and it will turn into a vicious bunfight every single time

Initially lockdown felt okay as there was a sense of purpose and it felt like an end in sight- everyone used language like ‘sticking to the rules until this is all over’ like we’d just lockdown hard enough then come out the other end and regain normality. It was all new so there was that optimism that a vaccine or treatment would be sorted.

Now everything just feels really weird. We are stuck in this limbo of not knowing, everyone is fed up, as we begin to ‘reopen’ there’s always the creeping number of cases threatening close again.

Nice to see predictions of better treatment or a vaccine being available within a year :) also that herd immunity or the virus weakening could restore old life to a degree.

Also interested in the future of the high street!

Personally I think recession.
Bozo and Cummings will stand down in Jan/feb saying their work is done and leaving someone else to pick up the pieces the only reason Bozo if trying to do anything about the economy now and artificially propping it is so he doesn't get the blame.
They will blame the general public for not following covid guidance rather that the utterly bewildering advice they are giving and constant moving of goal post.
Civil unrest in the north as they realise they were sold down the river and Westminster still doesn't care, benefits down, taxes up for mid rate earner and the over 40's, the young will think this is right as they have been paying for all the bad management in the past and these are the boomers... conveniently forgetting it is not the boomer generation and the only reason they are not included is the tories what their vote and when it comes time for them to be old they will all be dead anyway.
More privatisation of Nhs and Public health because the narrative will be they fucked it up, rather than the shit show of private companies.
We won't be wearing masks or social distancing as politicians will want economy's running normally. People with disability will lose their jobs they will lose their benefit and then they will be blamed for being a drain on the health service by dying from Covid or the public purse by living and claiming benefits.

A politicians will continue to set us all off against each other to keep the infighting going and take the heat off them and a bewildering number of people who claim to understand politics will still think Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party when trolling social media.

I am hopeful that this time next year we will be just starting to come out of the pandemic. Hopefully we will have a vaccine that can be rolled out gradually, and by winter 2021 the deaths will be far lower.

The economic impact however will be huge. Enormous numbers of unemployed people, and record repossessions of homes. Mortgage providers might be pressurised to rent properties back to the former owners to minimise the disruption but I don't see any government interference in stopping repos happening, or stopping redundancies.

The furlough scheme has already cost so much, I can't see the Tories subsidising business any further.

Many more businesses will have given up prices commercial real estate and their workers will be WFH wherever it's possible.

Parents with no childcare options will be at the front of the unemployment line as it has proven impossible to keep primary schools open during the autumn/winter/spring.

Oh yeah. And BREXIT.

One of the lessons we learn from history is the we never learn from history!
I think it will be a mix and that positives will come out of this. The High Street was dying anyway, so it's demise may have been hastened but it was inevitable.
Education has had a big shake-up and definitely in my school some positives have come from tech -I have suggested to my leadership team that we definite keep the online option for parents' evenings and other things. My lesson planning has improved significantly since having to deliver online and leave no potential gaps in understand instructions.
Agree about friendship groups realigning -I am certainly realigning mine.
I hope we will treasure freedoms if we get them back.
I hope that low cost airlines go broke and that resulting prices rise so that they better reflect the cost to the planet.

Interesting zombie thread from last year predicting Aug 2021... some way off the mark! Others a bit closer though

Yeah very interesting to read the predictions. I find myself wondering what life will be like this time next year. In 2020 my outlook was cautious and probably negative but now I do feel like Aug 2022 will be hell of a lot better and more so 'back to normal'.

Very interesting and pleasing that the predictions of the most doom laden haven't come true

Some pretty spot on predictions too

I didn't see this thread when it was started, I really would have liked to have posted to see how good my prediction would have been

The one about Cummings standing down was spot on!