@Floatyboat
Jill is winning, if property prices continue to go up forever, however the higher you are to the top of the market, the less demand and competition there are for properties. So really John always wins 😉.
I'll explain why, Jill bought a property in a wealthy area of Birmingham for 200k (everyone wants to live there, but cannot afford to), John on the other hand bought, on the edge of that wealthy area for 100k.
There are 50 buyers, with deposits scanning the area for their first house, they all have 10k deposits.
Now, most of these buyers do not have the income, to borrow a loan from the bank for 190k, however much more can get 90k, some more can even get 130k.
25 buyers view John's house and would like it (it's not quite as ideally located as Jill's) they dont stay on the market for long due to competition.
Only 5 first time buyers view Jill's house and decide it's out of reach (sensible decision), Peter reminds his wife that if he loses his job, they wouldn't be able to pay the mortgage.
Now out of the 25 that view John's house, 10 decide they are interested, they get into a bidding war and the final price is £125k.
So as you can see, if house prices went up all at the same % then Jill would always win, but that doesn't really happen. Unless you've got subprime mortgages, mass corruption in the banking industry, goverment infrastructure changes or a new high paid industry emerges in that area.
The housing market has cycles, we look to becoming to the end of a recent patched up boom from 2008.
They might not really fall that much tbh, it all depends on jobs and how over leveraged people are. Tbh I cannot call it, Covid19 could bring us a second wave and that would cause mass defaults but I suspect the government will prop the housing market up.
You will find, that
If they do fall, the more your house is worth, the more it's likely to fall, due to supply and demand.
Those looking to move up the ladder are best placed when we are at downturn.
Those looking to down size are best placed to do so, when the market is booming.
So by the goverment allowing wealthy investors, to buy up property in London, they are actually giving you wealth also. As this acts to push up the price of your property.