I agree with the OP. There’s so much hysteria about CV19 and almost none of it is justified.
According to the Kings Fund, there are about 850,000 older adults receiving social care and a further 1.5 million who need it but aren’t able to access it, so close to 2.5m people. The UK has a total population of about 66.7m.
Deaths attributed to CV19 are between 30,000-35,000, and many of those are people who would have likely died anyway, eg Comedian Eddie Large who was apparently in hospital with heart failure when he caught CV19 and then died.
This means that even among the most vulnerable, the risk is still low. In the population as a whole, absent relevant medical vulnerability, people are highly unlikely to suffer from this, ie if they catch it, they will not become seriously ill.
But many people are suffering from the lockdown. Normal medical care has stopped, as has education. Talking about waiting for the R to fall ignores the fact that the majority of transmission is now in hospital or care homes...the R in the community is not published but is certainly far lower.
It is also the case that the science behind the 2m guidance is non-existent....there is some evidence for 1m having some benefit, but 2m is excessive.
A return to school trying to maintain a 1m distance would be far more feasible, but as the risks of either transmitting CV19 or actually becoming sick from it within school populations is tiny, there is really no justification for not re-opening schools. Talk of “safe working environments”, PPE in schools etc is seriously OTT.
The harms from the lockdown outweigh the benefits for all but the most medically vulnerable, and while needing to shield is obviously very burdensome for those concerned, if they’re shielding thoroughly they are not more protected by the existence of a more general lockdown. Therefore we need to get back to normal life for everyone else, and in particular we need to re-open schools and regular medical care.