Aibu - so many missing economic cost to health

[Puzzle500]

Possibly going to get flamed...but there seem to be such a large sector of the population who are clear they won't send their children back to school, go back to work etc because of the risk of the virus. On a simple level, I understand that - but why can no one see that if we end up in huge economic decline the health impact and death impact will actually be higher? The future for children in poverty terrifies me

I live in a place with lots of seasonal jobs, second homes, coastal businesses etc, and the whole local population is "keep everyone away forever" - is it just me thinking they are unreasonable on one level as when this is gone, what on earth will they have jobs doing? The town will die.

@BovaryX I haven't said they can. Since the fast majority of those furloughed are in industries that can't social distance & will take time to recover when do you think it should end?

Also if furloughing stops it won't save 8m a month, some of that will be lost to increased benefit take up & loss of taxes.

I'm not furloughed nor is DH & likely will keep our jobs, but I have empathy. What do you do?

But it turns out it's accurate @ArriettyJones.

Nope. See my post above.

You can conjure with the numbers in myriad ways.

For example the link below confidently states that the NHS employees 1.5 million people but then goes on to say that that “ But these numbers do not include everyone working in the health sector. They leave out some people, such as temporary staff, GPs, dentists, optometrists,...” (plus contracted out cleaners, porters and catering staff).

Imagine not counting GPs, dentists or porters! It’s just jiggery pokery, and it’s very easy to do.

fullfact.org/health/how-many-nhs-employees-are-there/

Because lots of people don't think in the long term, they live in the here and now. Also, the only people I spoke to who are happy with continuing the lockdown either have a job and can work from home (earning the same), or have a partner who has a good job and are SAHP, so their income isn't massively different from before.

Economic recession can cause deaths, not only from suicides, but from poverty, lack of access to healthcare, less funds for the NHS. I don't think people appreciate that the NHS is a completely free service, open to everyone. In some countries in Europe you have to pay an additional healthcare insurance on top of taxes.

Obviously, if there is less money coming in through taxes, because people are unemployed, there will be less money for NHS. And let's not talk about dentists, it's mental that they are not considered key workers by the Government.

If you choose not to believe the accurate figures quoted by the Telegraph and cited in the ONS link? That says alot about your agenda and political prejudice @ArriettyJones**

No, it just tells you how contested stats actually are, (and that long, long ago I had a good research methodology training, which has left me sceptical of how things - any type of things - are counted).

when do you think it should end?

It can't continue. It is not economically sustainable. Empathy is an interesting word, used in this context to imply a lack of empathy by those suggesting the current situation continues. Do you have empathy for the millions of businesses who are facing oblivion because global economic activity has ceased? @foggybits

Empathy is an interesting word, used in this context to imply a lack of empathy by those suggesting the current situation can't continue

So when do you think it should end for the arts, hospitality, entertainment businesses? Now?

I don't think we have any idea how bad the recession will be.

We've lived through a recession, austerity etc, but isn't what potentially lies ahead significantly worse than that - more aligned to the Great Depression of the 1930s?

And in the 1930s there was no welfare state to prop up, no NHS.

And @BovaryX do you think once furloughed ends everyone will rush back to acting & spending as before?

dentists

Are you unaware that many dentists are in private practice, operating small businesses? Their patients are often in an insurance scheme. At the moment, most are only operating on an emergency basis, but their staff are on furlough and private dental practices have been eligible for 10,000 in government grants to pay employees' wages. Surprised you didn't know this. @ArriettyJones

There will be a huge number of people who will be poorer, struggling to her by, and a smaller number of people getting wealthier. People having properties, supermarket chains, private heatlhcare I imagine.

BovaryX I mentioned dentists. I'm with a private one, but not on insurance and can guarantee you that the service is almost non existent. And they have lots of costs to run the business as well. My husband dentist is NHS and won't open till July.

Oh, and the care they are allowed to provide now is basically pulling teeth out.

And @BovaryX do you think once furloughed ends everyone will rush back to acting & spending as before?

probably not that buts what we actually need to encourage

we need people to spend.

reccession only gets worse when people are saving everything and too scared to spend it

i for one am still spending money on stuff i dont really "need" because we are lucky enough to be at almost the same level of disposable income

when nursery opens and i go back to work, our spending will likely go back to normal. the only think we probably wont spend on any time soon is a holiday and thats only because of the uncertainty that surrounds it.

i think the furlough scheme should carry on for those who NEED it. I dont want to see anyone plunged into poverty, but its obviously is unsustainable at its current level which i assume is why they're thinking about getting schools open.

And they have lots of costs to run the business

Obviously. As does any business. But private dental practices will return to work as lockdown lifts. I am pointing out that

A) Many dentists are in private practice
B) Many patients subscribe to an insurance scheme
That's why they are not included in public sector figures.

we need people to spend.

That's a separate issue though. We do need it but will they? I've certainly tightened up my spending & as mentioned DH will be wfh for a fair while. That's a huge saving on tube fairs, coffees, lunch, drinks after work etc.. I want to save more because I think life will get more expensive eg food, VAT, higher taxes etc.

What happens if the R rate goes back up & we have another lockdown? Furlough may be reduced or gone by then so I think it's prudent to save as much as possible.

That's a separate issue though. We do need it but will they? I've certainly tightened up my spending & as mentioned DH will be wfh for a fair while. That's a huge saving on tube fairs, coffees, lunch, drinks after work etc.. I want to save more because I think life will get more expensive eg food, VAT, higher taxes etc

eh, no. Its not a separate issue. People spending is what eases recession.

Not everyone will do what you do, and thats a good thing.

What happens if the R rate goes back up & we have another lockdown?

i dunno? luckily thats not up to me to work out.

I imagine another lockdown is exactly what we're trying to avoid. Also, theyre doing the track and trace thing which should help, more testing will help.

I personally dont think the situation will get so bad that we need to go back into lockdown again.

Are you unaware that many dentists are in private practice, operating small businesses? Their patients are often in an insurance scheme. At the moment, most are only operating on an emergency basis, but their staff are on furlough and private dental practices have been eligible for 10,000 in government grants to pay employees' wages. Surprised you didn't know this. @ArriettyJones**

Don’t be silly. The point is ALL GPs, optometrists and dentists have been specifically excluded from the figures on a technicality. So according to that data set the NHS pays no primary care doctors whatsoever. Which is clearly both a nonsense, but also technically true, post-holding. Dentists - and many individual dentist’s workload - may be split between NHS and private work more evenly but 99% of GPs work for the NHS under contract, and are the frontline of the NHS.

So, what value does the 1.5 million figure have?

You’re just demonstrating more of the selective thought in pointing out @BovaryX

eh, no. Its not a separate issue. People spending is what eases recession.

But needing them to spend & them actually doing it are separate.

Not everyone will do what you do, and thats a good thing.

I've never argued otherwise, I have no problem with other people spending.

I personally dont think the situation will get so bad that we need to go back into lockdown again.

I really hope so but just in case I want to hold some back & like I said I'm pretty sure taxes will rise in some form or another.

Post fund-holding.^

@Kljnmw3459 - front line care. been working non stop. but thanks