To question the stats and facts

[Yolo2]

I'm puzzled by several stats/ facts related to death rates and the R rate.

(1) Death rates - we do tens of thousands of tests a day. Let's say 80,000 average. Generally you need to have symptoms to be tested. About 6000 a day are positive. So the vast majority of people with symptoms do not have the virus. So why are doctors allowed to put Coronavirus as a cause of death on death certificates of untested people just because they had Covid symptoms? Seems mad.

(2) Surely factors like number 1 will contribute to us having one of the highest death rates in Europe? In addition, it sadly has been reported that BAME people are far more vulnerable to dying from covid. Isn't the UK one of the most diverse countries in Europe? Should this not also be considered as a factor in our high death rates? Same with obesity. Why all the outrage at the government without a proper analysis of this. I think the government have made mistakes but we didn't run out of beds and lockdown comparatively early compared to other countries. Is it really the government's fault if we do have a higher number of deaths at the moment (I really am not a fan of the government at all by the way. Just don't see they have done anything worse than other countries. Other countries are blaming their governments for the same failures as ours so it's not unique to UK)

(3) The R rate. In Scotland, it's been reported that the R rate is likely to be higher than the rest of the UK, apparently because its at an earlier stage on the curve. I don't understand this. It therefore locked down at an earlier stage in the spread of the disease as it locked down at same time as UK. Aren't we being told countries which locked down earlier would be able to control the rate of infection and the spread much more easily, and therefore the R rate? So why would Scotland's R rate now be higher?

AIBU to be puzzled by all of the above? Or am I missing something here?

This isn't intended to be a debate on how well the government have handled the crisis. Genuinely interested in what I see as either anomalies or missing information in the debate.

Just found this - why might the R number be higher in Scotland www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52578939

@Yolo2 didn't say that at all, and our leaders know precisely nothing. But watching everyone try to be armchair epidemiologists overnight is exhausting. Noone is an expert in covid, not even those people on tv telling us they are. Trying to unpick it as it unfolds is pointless and the general public are not equipped to do so.

@pippa12 I'm not sure there is hard evidence to prove about being left at home but tug read this on mn all the time
The original op comments do need to be taken into account and looked into and in fact many professionals in such matters are saying you can't just compare figures like for like without looking at variables and that it's too early to make these comparisons just yet
But the headline in all the papers is we have the highest death rate in Europe ( not strictly true as like said in numbers but not per capita , and reporting slightly different ) so it seems people read this and decide
Ppe worldwide shortage even German Drs were complaining yet are one of the ones doing well but Ppe was a problem in most places due to lack of availability
The government won't of got everything right and borders etc even WHO was saying no need to close
But I don't think we will know what was totally right or wrong until after and as we learn more about the virus unfortunately which is what makes it so worrying

As I wrote above the government total number of deaths released daily are only those who tested positive in hospital and community. Until April 29th the community deaths who tested positive, many of them from care homes, were not included. However, this was amended and the current govt figure includes both hospital and community deaths that tested positive. This is the figure that was around 30,600 yesterday. I believe it is true the doctor who writes on the death certificate of those who tested positive as either dying of or dying with CoVid.

ONS do a weekly update of the number of deaths. ONS include those where CoVid 19 is mentioned in a section on the death certificate even if there was no positive test. The ONS report is 11 days behind so the latest report that came out the start of the week was the number of deaths up to April 26th. The total number of deaths they give up to April 26th were a bit higher than what the govt reported on 26 April.

Finally, regarding excess deaths, ONS looks at this too. I read a FT article on 5 May that said the Office for National Statistics on the Tuesday which by my calculation would be 28 April said 42,000 more people than the five year average for the period had died in the UK since the virus outbreak began in mid-March.

@BroomstickOfLove is there anyway to see these figures for last couple months rather than last 4 weeks as in charts and sun as that's was UK peak so would be high . I still think we can't compare excess deaths until after as we don't know if second waves will appear if no vaccine is found

@Pippa12 that's the thing people reading guidelines that they don't fully understand and then interpreting them .
Same as many on here with all their scientific knowledge when even the worlds greatest scientist don't have all the answers yet .
Stats are funny things and can be used to suit an agenda depending on how they are presented as well so should always be looked at carefully such as excess deaths over 5 year average being x amount higher but why if compared to last 2 years or 10 years ??

So, is this right - you only get Covid19 recorded on a death certificate if the person was tested and the result was positive?

@NearlyGranny, as others have said CoVid will be mentioned on the death certificate even if not tested positive if the person was suspected to have it by symptoms. However, bear in mind the govt total number of deaths released daily - the one that stands around 30,600 currently - only include those who tested positive either in hospital or community. Of course there will be those who tested positive but had underlying conditions/already v ill so they might not have died of CoVid if they had been healthy but the underlying conditions or v old age caused the death. I don’t think the science is there yet to know how to determine whether someone died with or of CoVid.

Point 1) I know that you are only supposed to get tested if you have symptoms but can anecdotally tell you that about eight of my colleagues have been for testing without any symptoms whatsoever. They discussed it at work and were excited that 'they could'. Each of them filled their cars with family members because 'they could', and lied about symptoms so that they could have the test. They were all negative and are currently walking about like they're immortal, telling everyone that they can do what they want because they haven't got it.

So - severely skewing the stats, and behaving like idiots.

Yes, I pointed out that they wasted everybody's time, that they could have been infected five minutes after taking the test, that the test is designed to confirm/deny covid for people with symptoms.

Guylan “ However, bear in mind the govt total number of deaths released daily - the one that stands around 30,600 currently - only include those who tested positive either in hospital or community”

Again, Sir Patrick Whitty said exactly the opposite - that the total includes those who were NOT tested.

“ Trying to unpick it as it unfolds is pointless and the general public are not equipped to do so.”

I think Yolo’s response was spot on.

Some posters here might like to read this

www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/peak-covid-19-deaths-occurring-english-hospitals-passed-8-april

The only possible way to assess the stats is by comparing current death rates to previous years’ rates. So April 2020 deaths - whether or not they are registered as Covid on the certificate - are compared to the average of the last 5 years of April deaths.

This is the only way we can compare countries, too. Which country’s death rate has increased the most compared to its usual rate for that week/month/quarter.