To question the stats and facts

[Yolo2]

I'm puzzled by several stats/ facts related to death rates and the R rate.

(1) Death rates - we do tens of thousands of tests a day. Let's say 80,000 average. Generally you need to have symptoms to be tested. About 6000 a day are positive. So the vast majority of people with symptoms do not have the virus. So why are doctors allowed to put Coronavirus as a cause of death on death certificates of untested people just because they had Covid symptoms? Seems mad.

(2) Surely factors like number 1 will contribute to us having one of the highest death rates in Europe? In addition, it sadly has been reported that BAME people are far more vulnerable to dying from covid. Isn't the UK one of the most diverse countries in Europe? Should this not also be considered as a factor in our high death rates? Same with obesity. Why all the outrage at the government without a proper analysis of this. I think the government have made mistakes but we didn't run out of beds and lockdown comparatively early compared to other countries. Is it really the government's fault if we do have a higher number of deaths at the moment (I really am not a fan of the government at all by the way. Just don't see they have done anything worse than other countries. Other countries are blaming their governments for the same failures as ours so it's not unique to UK)

(3) The R rate. In Scotland, it's been reported that the R rate is likely to be higher than the rest of the UK, apparently because its at an earlier stage on the curve. I don't understand this. It therefore locked down at an earlier stage in the spread of the disease as it locked down at same time as UK. Aren't we being told countries which locked down earlier would be able to control the rate of infection and the spread much more easily, and therefore the R rate? So why would Scotland's R rate now be higher?

AIBU to be puzzled by all of the above? Or am I missing something here?

This isn't intended to be a debate on how well the government have handled the crisis. Genuinely interested in what I see as either anomalies or missing information in the debate.

Disquieted “ I'm an active card-carrying member of the Conservative party and I'm the one arguing most strongly that the government has fucked up.
Because they have.”

Relieved to meet such a person. Thank you for being honest.

Plus take into account the proven virus mutations .

@LilacTree1

But also there are definitely individuals who died of covid 19 and were not included in the figures because they did not die in hospital .

They either died at home or in a care home . And although they had health problems they were not at deaths door.

Susie - probably.

So the whole stats thing is a nonsense.

Do the ONS or NHS account for those certificates though?

83.8% of covid19 deaths in this country are still white people, so I think the BAME thing is being over-egged. I wonder if infections are going to dramatically increase now people think being white makes you immune.

If the BAME people on the front line were replaced with white people (which is what the situation would be if the UK had less BAME) people, it would be those white people contracting covid19

Doctors would be villified if the didint put Covid on the cert and also if they didnt. It depends whether it is put as the main cause of death or as a contributing factor. Stats a re the most ludicrous way of making comparisons. It is all a pointless ex and only of use to the statiticians not us mortals drawing conclusions right left and centre. mingd yo they are pretty handy for "I blame the Tories"

Under what expertise to all MN think they could have done the job better? You are wasted , get into politics

Euromomo is the organisation that monitors death rates across Europe. It shows deaths in general, rather than Covid-19 specific deaths. If you look at the data available on z scores, which is standardized measure of excess deaths, the figures for England in particular are shocking, and by far the worst in Europe.

Those deaths won't all be deaths from Covid-19. But they do indicate a terrible mismanagement of public health, which can only really be blamed on the government.

The Euromomo figures are here
www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

And, rather surprisingly, there is a pretty good explanation of the figures in The Sun
www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/11542171/englands-excess-death-rate-highest-europe-coronavirus/amp/

1. Lots of tests produce false negatives. The test is very hard, and unpleasant, to administer correctly. Very difficult for people to self administer. So the positive tests will be an under-reporting. I'm not sure by how much. People can now get tests when members of their household have symptoms or when they have very mild symptoms, whereas initially, it was only the very worst cases being tested in hospitals. So not everyone tested has symptoms.

2. Our official running daily death toll is only people who have tested positive, not the assumed cases.

@LilacTree1 I guess Iike you I'm just questioning the narrative here. Lots of dodgy figures, unreliable stats and contradictory information.

Those mentioning excess deaths - yes that is the most important factor. But the top scientists are saying that the overall death stats at end of this might not be much higher - lots of people are just dying now rather than in a few months. And before the hysterical, indignant people shout me down in this saying young healthy people are dying too etc... Yes that's true but you'd be shocked if you were aware of how many young, healthy people die of illnesses like sepsis, flu etc. It's just not on the news. Covid -19 is definitely killing lots of people - that is without doubt. And it's killing healthy young people in higher numbers than other illnesses at the moment. But the numbers are likely to be low. Strip away the over 75s, those already extremely ill and then let's look at the numbers left. That is what should tell us how dangerous this is for the average person and we could break it down even more -e.g. obesity etc. I want these facts and I'm not sure why we don't have them.

To anyone who cba looking at Broomstick link, it is very clear about excess deaths not caused by Covid.

Glad to see that in The Sun.

@PastMyBestBeforeDate I'm just taking current numbers as an example. Not average numbers - although I think if you add up all the positive tests , and divide it by the total number of tests, you will still find the vast majority of tests are negative in percentage terms. And that's with most people being tested being those with serious covid-like symptoms.

To those saying the tests are very unreliable - what when say 6000, are positive and 74,000 negative (general daily figures based on last week or so) - actually tens of thousands or even just thousands of negative tests are false? I don't think so. That's why it is mad to let untested people's deaths go down as Covid on the death certificates. And as someone said, the government have admitted that deaths are being attributed without a diagnosis...

X post

yolo, yes, I’m thinking I might spend a bit of time collating these properly as I think the real facts are very hidden away.

Yesterday one poster actually said “three of these hundred skittles will make you die - will you eat any of them”.

It’s getting quite concerning that people want to live in fear. And that they don’t care their children will see the worse effects on civil rights.

But the current numbers include a lot of tests expected to be negative where people are checking they are clear to go back to work. The last week of numbers include them for the first time. Plus a lot of tests aren't picking up a positive. A friend had 3 or 4 tests before one came back positive. So 66 or 75% of her tests were negative but she definitely had it when they were done.

Yolo “ . That's why it is mad to let untested people's deaths go down as Covid on the death certificates.”

I would have been furious if I thought a loved one had something wrong on a death certificate but all the usual protections around death classification have been suspended- again, something where I need to be able to cite that legislation.

Past “ So 66 or 75% of her tests were negative but she definitely had it when they were done.”

How do you know?

The last bug I had that knocked me out for two weeks was in summer 2018. The main feature was a cough.

Yolo “ Yes that's true but you'd be shocked if you were aware of how many young, healthy people die of illnesses like sepsis, flu etc. It's just not on the news”

This. And people posting dramatic “stories” from the MSM that equate to “I was very ill for weeks”. I thought that was called life!

The nice guidelines are to assess severity of illness, not for admissions to hospital!!! I’ve vented patients and put them on cpap, I can assure you all before their lips were blue!!! This suggestion is nothing short of absurd. Patients categorically DO NOT HAVE TO have blue lips before treatment. Please please stop spouting this tripe as truth!

Lots of tests produce false negatives. The test is very hard, and unpleasant, to administer correctly. Very difficult for people to self administer.

From personal experience I’d have to agree with that. They tell you to swab the back of the throat for 10 seconds - my gag reflex was just too efficient and I couldn’t tolerate it! When I received the appointment the info said you could ask for someone to administer your test, but when I arrived at the test centre I wasn’t given that option.

As people have said, the daily death toll in the media and at briefing isbof confirmed cases only.

It's the ONS weekly figures which are based in death certificates - some of which will be from doctors certifying likely Covid rather than a test. But remember, they have certain responsibilities when certifying a cause of death, and any real doubt and they'd be doing testing or referring the case for a post mortem. It's not likely to be a doctor's certifying a random unexpected death in the community - that's a PM case. it's likely to be in a care home setting, where Covid is confirmed within the setting, and someone dies with Covid symptoms, and nothing else is suspected. It's changed now, but until recently, most symptomatic people in care homes wouldn't be checked, and you'd have cases like 20 people dying of it in a home within say a week, but only 5 are confirmed cases.

Incidentally, some countries official toll does include suspected cases (as I said, ours doesn't), so actually the fact that we are still worst in Europe is pretty shocking.

The reason why it's all puzzling is because you are dealing with immensely complicated science that is vastly dumbed down for the public.

I think people need to realise they aren't equipped with the skills to go poking around in these things.

Baby boom “ But remember, they have certain responsibilities when certifying a cause of death, and any real doubt and they'd be doing testing or referring the case for a post mortem. It's not likely to be a doctor's certifying a random unexpected death in the community - that's a PM case”

But is that actually happening? The legislation looks to be bending over backwards to find ways to get out of PM.

I think I’ll dig out the relevant bits of the Act on Sunday so bear with me.

There’s an article here and also Dr John Lee has done a podcast but I’ve not heard it yet

hectordrummond.com/2020/05/08/ronan-maher-clauses-in-the-coronavirus-act-changed-how-we-record-deaths-its-time-to-change-them-back/

I don’t think the R numbers for scotland and englanddiffer that much. Nicola Sturgeon said it was between 0.7 and 1 and some guy a the Uk govt briefing said it was 0.75 and 1 for England and Wales.

@Pukkatea You're absolutely right! Anyone expressing intellectual curiousity ought to be slapped down! Our dear leaders know what's best for us. Stay at home, bake and shut up.