..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

I do agree that one good thing to come out of this is employers will be more likely to allow home working, but I think we are a very, very long way away from home working becoming the norm.

@effingterrified my dad is a property developer and he is looking at houses in camden now. He is the reason i bought in zone 3, he told me that I would be 25% poorer if I bought outside London due to losing out on price increases over the long term, as well as a lower net worth. I dont feel confident be 25% poorer because of a pandemic. There are people still buying london property with virtual viewings. They do so because they know in the long term, london property is a good investment. Yes we would probably have 40% price drops but it would bounce back faster than the rest of the country.

Yes, I'd absolutely sell now and wait for the market to crash, if you can manage the living situation and the uncertainty. A friend of mine who sold last year and has been renting a London flat has renegotiated the price for the house he'd already made an offer on. He is now paying more than 10% less (it's a very expensive house) than the original offer price.

Interesting thread, although I’m sorry people have got upset.

We live in a large house and are grateful for that right now as we have dc back here and dh is WFH. We also have a garden, lots of bathrooms and plenty of space so we can get away from each other if we need to.

Before this we were thinking of downsizing but we’ll wait and see what happens with prices I think. We have a lot of equity and dh has a secure job. He’s still working and our house means there’s plenty of space to WFH.

My predictions / guesses:
WFH will become more common, people will be looking for houses with room for this
Lenders will become more cautious; wanting bigger deposits/ LTV
High borrowing in the UK will cause issues as people lose jobs / cant service their debts
People without savings will cut back in order to save
There will be more repossessions as people can’t pay

So I think a price drop is likely as we’ll be in recession with high unemployment. Those who can wait it out will do so.

Yes, I'd absolutely sell now and wait for the market to crash

How do you suggest OP does that?

@Frompcat by staying with her family! I stayed with family for 3 years before i bought a flat. She would also be chain free and that would help her get a better deal.

Yes but how do you propose she sells it? Who do you think is buying right now?

I would put yours on the market ASAP to be honest.

Mine is on the market now but no one is viewing. Estate agents are shut.

I think it's going to be a complex and mixed picture.

Flats with no gardens and new builds with tiny ones are going to lose value more than houses with bigger gardens; bigger rooms are going to be more desirable as well, and houses with extra bedrooms for wfh.

Some sales will be forced due to divorces/relationship breakdown, but that also means two households need a new home while selling one, thus increasing demand.

Some people who would like to move simply won't be able to do so if prices fall too far because they will have negative equity. (Note, prices didn't fall as far as they perhaps should after 2008 - they were still way above the mid 90s prices.) We might see some people letting out their first home while renting another, especially where relocating?

The deaths in care homes might dissuade some older people from selling up and trying to hang on at home for longer. (And some care homes may go bust so there will be fewer places available and some will HAVE to stay in their own homes as nowhere to go.)

Places in catchment areas for desirable schools even more in demand as some private schools close or parents can't afford fees.

Greater attention to what the neighbours are like when house hunting.

For those with large family homes with gardens I have always thought it useful to keep the family home - to store children's things, so children and grandchildren can visit - we have gone from 7 of us when it was 2 of us plus 5 children (and even in 1997 when we bought here 2 of the 4 downstairs living rooms used for me and my children's father's work from home to a family at times of 11 once children's spouses/partners and grandchildren are added and having a base for the wider grown adult children family is quite nice.

My parents stayed in their 4 bed detached until death as did my children's other grandparents.

(Note, prices didn't fall as far as they perhaps should after 2008 - they were still way above the mid 90s prices.)

The gov slashed interest rates, less room now & then we had help 2 buy etc. I think help 2 buy will be extended.

I agree with others. People in large houses if they have a lot of equity wont sell. We have significant equity in our house and a small mortgage as do most people of our age. You wont get the 20 something living in a £1m house and stretching themselves very often!

We will stay put but dont want to move anyway.

I think its the much smaller places that will take the hit and it will be location dependant (as normal!)

I wouldnt expect bargains to flood the market as people do need to live somewhere.

No, property prices going through the floor doesn't usually result in a mad scramble to offload at a huge discount.
Strange that people continually think this is their big chance to get a bigger house at a bargain price 🤦‍♀️ So many threads on this...

If you can sell your house and are happy to move in with your parents for a bit then you will be in a good position to proceed if a house you like comes up for sale. You may or may not benefit from a dip in the market - personally I think you’ve probably missed the boat in that respect. I would imagine most people will be staying put and waiting to see what happens in the fullness of time unless they are absolutely forced to move or if they are repossessed. Anyone looking now will already be hoping the market uncertainty might make buyers give them a cheeky discount. If you’d sold just before the lockdown you might have stolen an edge, but then again a lot of people were hanging on to find out how Brexit would affect the market. Whether there will be a lot of big houses coming on the market in the area where you want buy is anyone’s guess. Contrary to popular opinion not all old people live in large houses.

I believe the government supported c.240,000 house purchases through help to buy. They have a sizeable chunk of tax payer funds invested in the market.

Even with a fall in prices, I really doubt the government would sit on their hands and not try various ways of propping up the market.

The future headlines if people with HTB loans are forced to sell their homes at a substantially lower price than they paid (and therefore their help to buy loan will fall with it), would be enough to warrant at least some action from them.

I don’t think the market will crash without any attempts to stop it. Relatively small correction I don’t think will be an issue.

Desiringonlychild - I think we agree that there is likely to be a rise in unemployment, at least in the short to medium term.

I think the move to greater home working will partly be driven by the workers, who can appreciate not having to commute, but more than that, I think will be driven by employers, who realise they can save a lot of money on office costs.

Re the likely rise in unemployment more generally, it does seem likely that that would lead to a rise in forced sales and hence lower prices. Though I agree that most of the forced sales are likely to be lower down the market; I think most of those in large houses have very comfortable equity cushions.

Not knocking anyone who wants to live in a 2-bed in Zone 3 with kids - I was imposing my own views there, as I used to do exactly that but chose to move to the very outskirts of London so I could bring my dcs up in a house with garden and excellent local schools, and have never regretted it - I simply can't imagine how we would have survived all living on top of each other, especially now.

I love London - I grew up there, but the city to me is not worth living that cramped. But each to their own.

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression the supermarket shortages had been worse in London than elsewhere? The people I know there seemed to struggle more and report more empty shelves than those I know living in other areas. My circle might be unrepresentative of course.

I wouldn't know to be honest, I've not stepped foot in a supermarket since this all kicked off as I've been using local independent places.

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression the supermarket shortages had been worse in London than elsewhere?

You are correct.

London supermarkets are most dependent on just in time deliveries because the cost of warehousing in London is much higher than outside London.

This meant they were less able to cope with spikes in demand as they had less stock on the shelves generally (turnover of stock being quicker than in more regionial locations). Places where floor space isn't such a premium were able to 'warehouse' more in store.

The depots couldn't get stock on lorries and to store quickly enough to replace what was being sold.

I think this is what you want to believe and will discount indications to the contrary.

Don't think prices of larger houses will be disproportionately affected.

All prices will go down if volumes drop because people are more inclined not to move.

And as Estate Agents need to make a living commission rates will increase across the board.

OP if people don't need to sell why would suddenly loads of house be on the market? Especially if prices fall most will want to sit it which happened pretty much last time house prices dropped/crashed!

Think you will be right the property market is going to take a hit , if you can sell now and wait you will get something on the cheap , most people will sit tight to ride out this storm but those that do no have that option will be forced to sell for what they can get , it will be a buyers market