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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Is the British government now actively trying to suppress the figures?

62 replies

Cam77 · 18/04/2020 22:35

internewscast.com/nhs-doctors-told-they-dont-need-to-list-covid-19-on-death-certificates-of-coronavirus-patients/
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8227035/NHS-doctors-told-DONT-need-list-Covid-19-death-certificates-coronavirus-patients.html

The guidance, which is titled ‘guidance for death certification of proven Covid-19 patients during the current pandemic’, says proven coronavirus deaths must be reported to the hospital site manager.

But under the header ‘general principles’ it adds: ‘There is no requirement to write Covid-19 as part of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD).’

The Good Law Project say the guidance suggests doctors are being ‘gently discouraged’ from reporting deaths as COVID-19. That would mean “we have no way of knowing if the government figures on deaths from coronavirus – the daily in hospital figures as well as the weekly ONS figures – are accurate,” the group said in an email to supporters.

The leaked guidance from an NHS Hospital Trust says: “Doctors are asked to use the standard MCCD (Medical Certificate of Cause of Death) form to certify death. ‘Pneumonia ‘or ‘community acquired pneumonia’ are acceptable at 1(a) on the MCCD.

Sure sounds like it

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CasperGutman · 19/04/2020 14:47

The Institute of Actuaries (the professional body for those who quantify risk on behalf of the insurance industry etc.) publishes regular updates based on analysis of ONS figures for deaths. Their latest report says that compared to death rates for the same time last year, "The number of “excess” deaths is 76% higher than the number of registered deaths in the ONS data for week 14 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2014%202020%20v01%202020-04-14.pdf

CasperGutman · 19/04/2020 14:56

Sorry, meant to add based on my post above that the number of excess deaths being above the number with COVID-19 listed as a cause of death doesn't necessarily mean it's not being recorded on the death certificate when it should have been. Many of those excess deaths may be people who are dying of other conditions because they are unable/unwilling to go to hospital for treatment, for example.

Cam77 · 19/04/2020 15:09

@LilacTree1acTree
Patrick Vallance is the man who was encouraging/validating the government's decisions to pursue herd immunity - a decision which likely resulted in the UK locking down significantly later than most other countries. I would take any claims he makes in that context.

(from FT, 13th March))
Britain’s chief scientific adviser stoked controversy on Friday when he said that about 40m people in the UK could need to catch the coronavirus to build up “herd immunity” and prevent the disease coming back in the future.

Defending Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision not to follow other European countries by closing schools and banning mass gatherings, Patrick Vallance said it was the government’s aim to “reduce the peak of the epidemic, pull it down and broaden it” while protecting the elderly and vulnerable.

But Sir Patrick told Sky News that experts estimated that about 60 per cent of the UK’s 66m population would have to contract coronavirus in order for society to build up immunity.

“Communities will become immune to it and that’s going to be an important part of controlling this longer term,” he said. “About 60 per cent is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity.”

This was in mid-March, when, for example, Ireland had already shut schools and was practicing strong social distancing - while the UK was still enjoying Cheltenham, Twickenham rugby games, CL matches, marathons, pop concerts.

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Sparklfairy · 19/04/2020 15:11

@lljkk both, but two separate files. one for england and wales, and one for scotland

MissConductUS · 19/04/2020 16:08

But Sir Patrick told Sky News that experts estimated that about 60 per cent of the UK’s 66m population would have to contract coronavirus in order for society to build up immunity.

The percentage of the population needed to have herd immunity is determined by how contagious the disease is (aka it's reproduction rate), so very high for mumps - 95%, lower for less contagious illnesses. CV-19 looks less contagious than mumps based on the data we have now.

But it's a bit daft to speak of herd immunity when there is no vaccine. To get to 60% immunity without one means that 60% of the population have had the disease. Here's a somewhat deeper discussion of the issue.

www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Clavinova · 19/04/2020 17:25

Links to the Good Law Project and the leaked guidance here;

goodlawproject.org/leaked-guidance/
goodlawproject.org/covid-19-deaths/

The 'incorrect' guidance appears to have been issued by one hospital trust only - the Good Law Project point out to the (unnamed) trust where they think the trust's guidance has not followed the official guidance for recording the cause of death;

"Our client's concern is not to publicly embarrass you but rather to secure that your advice to your staff is unlawful." ...

under the header ‘general principles’ it adds: ‘There is no requirement to write Covid-19 as part of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD).’

Although this follows with;
"It may be mentioned at 1(b) on the form, should the doctor wish."

Pneumonia ‘or ‘community acquired pneumonia’ are acceptable at 1(a) on the MCCD.

Sounds a bit less sinister here;
"If the certifying doctor has information from the patient's history and information of the circumstances involving the pre-mortem illness that suggest on the balance of probabilities that pneumonia is the most likely cause of death, then the doctor should issue a MCCD. Pneumonia would be appropriate on a MCCD at 1(a)."

Hopefully just a cock-up by one hospital trust, if indeed they are giving incorrect advice to their certifying doctors.

Doesn't sound like a government plot to me.

Cam77 · 19/04/2020 17:36

@Clavinova
Possibly you are right. But I have zero trust in this government - Johnson, Patel, Gove, Cummings, etc they are all compulsive liars and schemers.

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Ethelfleda · 19/04/2020 18:05

Why are we predicted to have the worst death rate in Europe nobody can say that for sure its impossible . If going by report other day apparently they have revised that

This. Why is it ok to make claims like this despite having no evidence, whilst simultaneously saying we don’t have enough evidence to talk about an exit strategy?

sutchie · 19/04/2020 19:28

Reporting only hospital deaths each day is the main way figures are being suppressed I think.

OnTheMoors · 19/04/2020 21:55

Can anyone tell me how many U.K deaths have occurred above the seasonal average, for March ?

underneaththeash · 19/04/2020 22:13

I disagree. My friend’s mum almost had COVID on the death certificate - but didn’t have a cough/temperature and it turned out to be a heart attack. I think maybe it’s just easier to put COVID in the certificate, especially if the patient hasn’t been seen by the doctor.

TheWordWomanIsTaken · 19/04/2020 22:52

^^ How did it turn out to be a heart attack? was there a post mortem?

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