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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Yr11/13 parents take a look at the sneakiness

188 replies

lifecouldbeadream · 17/04/2020 16:42

The Consultation on how the GCSE and A level grades for this cohort has been released....... very quietly.

Consultation ends 29/04.

You can see the proposal here...... and it appears it includes SATs grades...... yes really......

www.gov.uk/government/consultations/exceptional-arrangements-for-exam-grading-and-assessment-in-2020

OP posts:
Haskell · 17/04/2020 19:09

@Hercwasonaroll I know Prog8 won't be published...but you can be damn well sure it will be calculated! If not by DfE for the process of moderation, then by schools wanting to see where the cohort has go to.

stella139 · 17/04/2020 19:10

Is anyone else concerned about the fate of the Year 12s? It's all so uncertain at the moment, so who knows how they'll catch up on the part of the course that they've missed.

Hercwasonaroll · 17/04/2020 19:16

The consultation has been more widely published (ime) than any other ofqual consultation. I don't think most parents care enough or understand the process enough to comment in a meaningful way. If I wasn't a teacher I wouldn't care.

Cohort to cohort models are done every year. That isn't new, crazy or wrong. There has to be an objective anchor point of each cohorts previous achievement to distribute the grades correctly and allow for grade parity between different years.

You can't really question the process each school uses because each school will have different amounts of information. Quite rightly ofqual have left the criteria for grade decisions and ranking very loose. You also can't account for gut feeling. I know which students were working their bums off post mock exams to get their grades up, I know which students had stopped working, I know which students would likely pull something out of the bag on the day. Last year my predicted grades were all correct bar one.

On previous threads teachers agreed that there were very few surprises come results day. You'd get the odd pupil bomb out but teacher assessment means this won't happen. I have never seen a student achieve more than one grade above my expectations. Even then I can count on one hand those who got higher than I expected.

MT2017 · 17/04/2020 19:18

@lifecouldbeadream you sound like you don't approve of the way they are doing things - how would you have suggested grading?

I ask as a parent of both a Y11 and Y13 btw.

Hercwasonaroll · 17/04/2020 19:18

@Haskell True, well centre's will attempt to calculate it, but they can't get a true figure without DfE data to calibrate etc.

WombatChocolate · 17/04/2020 19:20

OP, in the end, this isn't a consultation for parents and students. Working this all out is a highly technical and statistical process. It really isn't something that parental or student comment is useful for. Schools will probably put forward one set of considered opinions, rather than all teachers expressing random (and not so useful views).

People forget that every year, when exams are sat, huge amounts of statistical adjustment goes into determining results. It really isn't simply that by working hard the grade is determined. Prior attainment of the cohort (via GCSE or SATs - using data which they have across a huge cohort, rather than worrying about the fact some individuals don't have that data) is always relevant and boundaries are adjusted for difficulty of paper and subject and to ensure similar percentages over time or that reflect the ability of a cohort, to try to give grades meaningful parity over time. It is very involved.

It is true that exams are fraught with problems. Never mind the whole issue of the sense of luck in some questions, but also the scope for error or a range of interpretations in many subjects, the fact examiners are laid little and have to mark too many papers etc all mean that vast numbers of papers are incorrectly marked and only some ever go to re-mark.

I'd think this process will deliver as accurate if not more accurate results for the vast majority. The trouble is that people won't see it like that. Anyone who is a bit disappointed (and over 75% of grades are below the UCAS prediction) will decide that they were cheated by this year's system....not realising that if they had sat the exam, they would dry likely have been disappointed trouble is parents and students won't see this. They will decide that the teachers gave them a low grade because they hadn't slaved for their mocks, when they planned a heroic effort of revision in the last weeks but were denied the chance to do it, or that SATs which didn't reflect their true potential were relied on, or that the school not being a top performing school made the system prejudiced against them. People won't just say 'that's what they deserved' because they usually don't really know what is most likely and because the system this year is different.

Unfortunately there won't be any way to overcome parental and student determination to believe that they have been somehow cheated out of higher grades this year. The complexities if the system will be too difficult to understand and huge numbers will be convinced their child was on the verge of a massive breakthrough but were denied the chance to shine. Most won't go for an autumn exam, because even if a bit disappointed, most will be able to move onto the next stage, as they always do even when a bit disappointed. However, those who go for the autumn exam, will often be disappointed in not performing better and then feel aggrieved about the whole thing of being out of school for so long before the exam. There will no winning for those running this.

Usually when people are disappointed in their results, they feel at least some responsibility for it, due to sitting the exams. I think the results will be extremely similar to they would have been with exams, but sadly the sense of being responsible will be lost. Hopefully, the annoyance and disappointment will be short-lived and and not a malingering bitterness which results in lots of late exam sitting and dwelling on the seeming unfairness of it all.

The government wants students to be able to move onto the next stage...and the vast majority, as every year will find the grades this system gives them, allows them to do just that.

Piggywaspushed · 17/04/2020 19:23

That's a great post wombat.

Hercwasonaroll · 17/04/2020 19:29

👏 Wombat absolutely fantastic post.

titchy · 17/04/2020 19:31

Would have been hopping mad if my kid had had SATs included last years.

GOOD JOB THEY WONT BE USING SATS TO AWARD GRADES THEN.

lifecouldbeadream · 17/04/2020 19:33

@MT2017, I’m not sure. Part of my concern I suppose that the Govt. announce a policy and then the procedure has to be made to fit. I think on balance teachers will be fair and balanced and have a difficult job because there will be students in their view who did not prove they had achieved enough and will have to grade lower than they’d hoped. I don’t think there’s a perfect system.

@wombatchocolate. I really like your point of view. Thanks

OP posts:
MillicentMartha · 17/04/2020 19:34

What Wombat said.

Hercwasonaroll · 17/04/2020 19:37

What do you mean by the government announce a policy first? Do you mean cancelling exams?

Hoghgyni · 17/04/2020 19:43

I have read the full document as my DD is in year 13. Although I think that the rankings will be very difficult for the largest sixth form colleges where they have 600-800 taking some subjects with around 50% grade A or A* in a typical year, they are taking a pragmatic approach and seem to have developed a reasonable proposal under the circumstances. The SATS info will only be used for GCSE students to benchmark the entire cohort, not on an individual basis.

I think you over estimate how many parents actually care that much. Most see GCSEs & A levels as a gateway to the next stage. If my DD doesn't fulfil her potential we will be disappointed for a little while, but as long as she has the grades to meet her uni offer our disappointment will be short lived. There are bigger things at stake at the moment.

noblegiraffe · 17/04/2020 19:48

I feel sorry for the people who are going to have to sift through consultation responses from parents, inevitably based around a fundamental misunderstanding of how SATs results will be used.

As a maths teacher, the discussions I’m seeing are around the expectation that ranks for grade 4 and 5 students should be made regardless of tier of entry, which will be very difficult.

Neverfore · 17/04/2020 19:48

I'm only a yr11 parent & have no intention of reading a 68 page document full of things I don't know anything about. My view is that I trust the results will be more or less as fair the exams would have been. If DS isn't happy presumably he can take an exam to try and improve his grade.

Now I've scrolled up a bit, basically what Wombat said.

WombatChocolate · 17/04/2020 19:57

Hog, I think you might be right and that most parents and students will move on quickly from disappointment as they do every year. The gov is very keen that students can move into the next stage, and this year more than any other, there probably will be more flexibility around the boundaries of admittance to the next stage. So, schools and colleges will be encouraged to take students into A Levels who they might have had serious doubts about before, and universities will be encouraged to take students. The government won't be able to allow a system which means higher numbers than usual remain unable to move to the next stage - so they won't let it happen.

Therefore, hopefully most of the gnashing of teeth will be this side of results and not afterwards.

There always remain those students, or more likely parents, for whom the very top grades across the board are the only acceptable thing. It isn't just about moving onto the next stage for them, but being the very top, and being able to out all 9s or As on the CV. Some of them might struggle to come to terms with disappointment and push their kids to take the exams. The problem comes where parents or children have a very distorted view of their own ability. There are always some who are convinced they are A standard, even when there has never really been any evidence of it.

You're right though, that most will move on from any disappointment as they do each year, as they move into the next exciting stage and GCSEs or A Levels get left behind and suddenly cease to feel like the be-all and end-all they were a few months before.

SeasonFinale · 17/04/2020 20:08

OP If you are an exCoG I am surprised you haven't been looking at the Ofqual page regularly where you would have seen that a consultation process was in the pipeline and there was nothing sneaked out.

Hercwasonaroll · 17/04/2020 20:09

As a maths teacher, the discussions I’m seeing are around the expectation that ranks for grade 4 and 5 students should be made regardless of tier of entry, which will be very difficult.

Agreed noble. This does seem very difficult.

FlyingPandas · 17/04/2020 20:11

@WombatChocolate has written a brilliant post. Thank you.

Hoghgyni · 17/04/2020 20:18

Wombat luckily DD is holding an Oxford humanities offer, so she doesn't need the multiple A*s other unis required. I may not have been quite as chilled if she wasn't!

lifecouldbeadream · 17/04/2020 20:25

I’m an ex Gov and CoG. I am not a parent worried about straight 9s to be clear.

As I am clearly in the minority- I concede IABU.

OP posts:
WombatChocolate · 17/04/2020 20:35

Op, there will be huge amounts of worry and confusion about this from parents. It is natural that they will worry their children will lose out. I really don't think they will, and in a year or two's time, for this cohort, it will all be water under the bridge, with those students having moved beyond this phase of their education and o to the next stage of life.

It's a shame that by its very nature, the process is statistical and complicated and many people won't understand it and end up feeling worried now and a bit cheated when results come out - although it really will deliver pretty accurate results. There will be huge amounts of misunderstanding and rumours. There is no perfect way to replicate students taking an exam that they have prepared for 2 years for, when they simply can't take the exam and so whatever is done, won't sit perfectly with people, as they just won't have been able to go through the full process they expected.

I think big attempts will be made to make sure this cohort can move onto the next stage, so hopefully the angst will be short-lived.

Heifer · 17/04/2020 20:41

I was sent the link to this from my DDs school yesterday. Had a quick read through but decided not to respond to the questionnaire as quite honestly I don't feel qualified to add anything further. I am going to trust that those that know far more than me will do the right think and that DD will get the grades she "most probably" would have got had she sat the exams. If not, and she is unhappy she can take them later.

Bouledeneige · 17/04/2020 20:43

I can't really get exercised about it. They seem to have tried to find a fair way to set grades, taking into account predictions from teachers who know their students best. Plus by using rankings within predicted grades and cohort SATs they trying to prevent bias both ways - schools wanting to improve on their results, and teachers under-estimating the potential of certain categories of students. They will also be using the extensive data and algorithms that the exam board's have to balance out predictions versus previous year's performance.

I am pleased they have carried out a consultation - there simply is not much time at all to design a whole new system in time to deliver results. I don't think they were under any obligation to do so.

Have you got a better idea about how to do it OP?

My DS certainly won't be planning to re-take his exams in September or next summer. He's as happy as larry that his A level exams have disappeared into the ether.

AuntieUrsula · 17/04/2020 22:09

On the whole I feel the system is as fair as it can get under the circumstances. After all, exams are also a bit of a lottery!

My concern actually is more with the more niche subjects where the cohort is so small that it varies considerably every year. eg DD does Latin GCSE and there's only 9 of them, but it's a strong cohort - the previous two years the school had 4 and 5 respectively. How can they standardise that?

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