Matt Hancock, the health secretary, bounced out of Whitehall after chairing the meeting and breezily told reporters the risk to the UK public was “low
I suppose it depends on how you define 'low'.
The chances of dying from Coronavirus is low.
And transmissability is moderate.
However - even a low chance of dying and moderate transmissibility still means a lot of deaths when you have a population the size of the UK.
I wonder when this fact was realised in Cobra - along with the situation with the NHS and the ICU effects
Have you read the Nervtag minutes?
app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/folder/103551854721
Interesting reading - especially the 21st Feb meeting when they discuss the infection rate and the transmissability
app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/640968322003
Cheltenham took place on 10th March.
The current lockdown happened on on 23rd March.
I wonder when people in charge took notice of the Nervtag meeting
From that meeting:
Current PHE risk assessment of the disease is moderate. The PHE risk assessment to the UK population is also moderate.This is a composite of what is known about transmission and the impact on public health globally and in the UK.
Some members commented that there may be sustained transmission outside of Mainland China. Others commented that there is plenty of scope for escalation in the UK and this would be an argument to keep the assessment as moderate rather than highat this time.
PH asked the committee if anyone thought that the PHE risk assessment should change. No objections were raised however after the meeting, JE emailed to say that he was online but for some technical reason could not be heard. JE believesthat the risk to the UK population (in the PHE risk assessment) should be high, as there is evidence of ongoing transmission in Korea, Japan and Singapore, as well as in China
.2.5NERVTAG does not recommend a change to the PHE risk assessment at this time.