So if today you were given the job of "minister for designing lockdown exit strategy "

[hobnobsaremyfavourite]

Catchy job title I know
What would you do and how would you plan it?
Not asking for when
Don't want a debate about when it would start
Just wondering, it seems like an impossible task

And in my head it would be small shops reopened
Eventually bars and restaurants allowed to reopen but with a cap on how many people allowed in depending on their square footage to maintain social distancing
Schools going back in a very phased Way e.g year ten and 12 only in a high school on alternate days
Only years 5 and six in primary on alternate days so they could be spread more widely
I dunno
I'm glad I haven't got to figure it out

I think I'd probably resign!

Get a RO under 1 through lock down.

Introduce widespread mass testing to pick up levels of community transmission.

Aggresive contact tracing of those diagnosed with the virus and enforced quarantine for diagnosed person and contacts.

Decide how to support at-risk individuals at severe risk of illness, disability and death to continue to shelter in place.

Gradual, staged re-opening of schools and businesses, with social distancing measures in place, including compulsory masking (this is the hardest task, I reckon, as social distancing is almost impossible in most schools)

Retain bans on mass gatherings indefinitely - probably until safe, mass vaccination program available.

Keep international borders locked down until safe mass vaccination available.

Promote domestic tourism, when safe to do so.

Boost domestic manufacturing.

Transform workplace culture around illness - make sure employees have adequate sick leave and are encouraged to use it.

Last on the list - re-open mass gatherings and allow free international travel.

But what would I know? I'm just a lowly, disposable TA :)

Blimey
Janeskettle think we might need to redeploy you 😂

Id recruit really smart people to my team and listen to them

I would wait until the nightingale hospitals are ready (shouldn’t be in the next three weeks) then allow a phased return to normal activity reassessed every week in the expectation of gradual relaxation and reimposition according to case load and economic demand until either herd immunity or a suitable vaccine is available.

I would probably reopen schools first and keep the elderly isolated in the hope that getting every child exposed to the virus when very few will get seriously ill will get herd immunity in the portion of the general population supposedly most likely to function as vectors ASAP at relatively low cost.

Once the children have mostly all had it and the young (up to 50 or so) are back at work we can start to ease restrictions on the more vulnerable.

hobnobsaremyfave

Mostly I've just been reading about what NZ and similar countries are doing. The UK isn't at the stage NZ is yet, which is why I'd continue lock down until the numbers are consistently low, and look at RO to guide me, but the things on my list are being talked about in other parts of the world already.

I have other lists for schools :)

Ah, everyone's an armchair expert! I like to do my musing with a packet of Jaffa Cakes by my side, but Hobnobs are my runner up!

I think the approach they are taking in Germany (where I am) seems very sensible. A very gradual reopening that can be halted at any point if the numbers get worse again.

Smaller shops reopen first, but must be set up to allow distancing. This will start in a very limited extent next week.

People are not required to wear masks in public but are heavily encouraged to do so.

Schools will reopen 4 May but only for the final years of primary and secondary school. We don't know yet when the other years will go back, they need to figure out how to reconfigure things so distancing can still be done.

Mass gatherings (including sport) still banned til August. Bars and restaurants still closed for the foreseeable.

Merkel gave a very good speech about this yesterday. She explained that the RO is 1 here, meaning one infected person infects one other. This is manageable. But if it ticks up to even 1.2 or 1.3, the healthcare system even here will be over capacity in a couple months. So everyone needs to be patient basically.

The metaphor she used was that we are coping but we are on thin ice, so must be very very careful.

Herd immunity without a vaccine is a bit of an unevidenced concept, given we don't know for sure yet what immunity is conferred by infection, and how long any immunity lasts.

I'm much more comfortable with herd immunity being achieved through a vaccination program, if we end up with a suitable vaccine.

I'd start in areas with low infection rate and with lowest risk people- people under 45, women in an older age bracket
I'd do 50% schooling week on/week off so schools could manage with less teachers
Open shops and takeaways but not pubs etc. Open sports clubs.
Continue to give handwashing and social distancing advice.
Monitor infection rate via hospitalizations probably and gradually ease/tighten restrictions as necessary

I'd open smaller shops, and outside attractions like gardens.
So people can get used to being out again in a controlled way.

Then I'd open businesses so those without childcare issues can return and the businesses can half operate.

Then I'd wait 4-6 weeks. To see impact.

If that seemed to be going well, I'd open primary schools, and 10&12 and maybe restaurants but not bars or large gathering places.
After another 4 weeks I'd open all schools (ideally just for 3 weeks before summer holidays).

Then I'd see where we were at.

I don't think you can open schools and socially distance them. I think it will need to be open properly or not at all.

Manufacturing and construction to reopen but with social distancing required. Increased public transport available to facilitate, but also temporary cycle tracks to facilitate more people wanting to cycle rather than use public transport and given the expectation of more cars (for same reason) and higher speeds (given recent experience on roads!), greater need to keep cyclists safe.

Possibly coinciding with reopening of parks and public spaces but with restrictions on numbers so gatherings limited to 4-6 people, social distancing to be maintained etc.

Then shops reopening, and possibly some cafes etc. Still restrictions on numbers allowed in at any point.

Schools are some way behind that, and entertainment venues farther behind again - pubs, cinemas etc.

I think schools would initially have staggered returns - similar to secondaries starting with final years and first years in September to allow exam years get started and newcomers find their feet. Only longer staggering, and focussed on exam years, in particular, at secondary level. Possibly non-exam years coming in on alternate days - so 2nd and transition years on M/W/F week 1 and T/Th week 2, with 1st and 5th years doing the opposite (T/TH week 1 and M/W/F week 2) once they are allowed return. Primary schools possibly half days for everyone but junior school doing mornings only and senior half of school doing afternoons with juniors leaving premises before "lunch" and seniors only arriving after "lunch" to allow separation. And lunch being earlier than normal (11.30 or 12).

When exams do happen, they are very spread out - so where usually leaving cert and junior cert (or equivalents) are all fitted into a sports hall together, only leaving certs spread out in the hall and junior certs spread out across large classrooms instead.

Sports and large venues (concerts etc) will be later again as they involve gatherings of very large numbers of people.

People would certainly be encouraged to continue to WFH where possible initially, perhaps staggered within workplaces to improve social distancing within buildings. So some time in work, some time at home.

Holidays and tourism outlets would be slow to reopen I think - partly due to the need to maintain social distancing, and partly because everyone needs to get back to "normal", but also there will be far less long distance travel going on so far less incoming tourism.

Yes, there is a lot of talk here in Germany about keeping the elderly and vulnerable populations at home and letting everyone else out (in limited ways). It does make sense.

"*
I would probably reopen schools first and keep the elderly isolated in the hope that getting every child exposed to the virus when very few will get seriously ill will get herd immunity in the portion of the general population supposedly most likely to function as vectors ASAP at relatively low cost.*
But what about School staff? Children might not get easily ill but you're basically putting staff in an extremely vulnerable situation and risking their lives, just to get children back to school. Personally, I think school staff have been shown very little consideration in this crisis by the Government, stores offering early shopping etc, etc. The forgotten role at the minute, caring for keyworkerd children. I've been in nearly every day recently caring for children of doctors working on Covid Wards etc, etc, who could easily be passing this to their children and in turn to me and all my colleagues in various schools who are in the same situation.

I have no idea. I have neither the information, the knowledge nor the wisdom.

*EVERYBODY OUT!
*
In the manner of Union reps in the 70's shows.

What I would have done is ensure there was one spokesman that would've stopped all this cross-briefing that is just creating a media shit storm every time anyone with a tidbit of information finds a journalist.

Oh, and I'd obviously invite Piers to organise all that plus the Lockdown exit since he knows better than anyone else on the fucking planet.

Allow people to visit their parents/children in groups of no more than 6.

We want to reopen while keeping R0 below 1, so NHS can cope.

I'd restart small businesses that can't work from home- plumbers, decorators etc.

Businesses that have fewer than 50 people in a building can reopen.

Medical appointments available for chronic conditions- asthma/diabetes reviews, hip replacements, cancer treatment where safe for the patient.

Vulnerable people continue to be shielded, social activity continues to be minimised.

All business that can function from home must continue to do so.

Schools, big offices and mass gatherings would be last.

I think a lot of what Jane says is brilliant

I’d add that pubs, clubs, restaurants etc would be last to open and would depend on social distancing

I’d also say gatherings of five in public and households

No limit on time outside and free to sit on the grass

And after a teacher on her said she wasn’t allowed to wear a mask, I’d say everyone who wants to should be able to do this.

Do Not Treat cards issued to anyone wanting one - many elderly woukd rather live normally and not be treated. Actually so would I.

Hopefully Advanced Directives will become a norm. And proper cleaning everywhere with more cleaners, pay that reflects the importance of what they do.

Open plan offices - bloody horrors - should be legally obliged to put screens up.

People seem to want primary children back mainly so parents can work whereas they want older secondary children back because of the impact on exam classes. Primary schools tend to have a higher proportion of female and older staff i.e. those more likely to be in vulnerable categories whilst also needing higher staff:pupil ratios, especially in the lower years so maybe more at risk of not being able to be fully staffed than a secondary.

I think I'd be inclined to try to open schools for Y10 and Y12 - maybe using some kind of AV system to 'beam' the teacher of larger classes e.g. maths into multiple classrooms so students can be spread out. It would be potentially be possible for a shielding teacher to deliver teaching remotely with students in class being supported by a different adult. I'd have the current Y6 transfer to their secondary schools early so they don't return to their primary schools and hug/cry etc all over each other but also so they get a well-supported transition to secondary school. They would attend in their primary uniforms until September and would have a 10am start so there is no need for them to travel during rush hour. Moving the Y6s would give primary schools a bit of increased capacity both in terms of classroom space and a teacher or two.

I would be looking at slowly reopening primary schools, initially to those families that do not have the IT to access online learning and/or with two keyworkers who have kept their children at home but can't really do their jobs with young children under their feet e.g. GPs, hospital pharmacists running clinics. Children from single parent families whose parent is unable to work from home would be the next in. I wouldn't open school nurseries at all and would only expect primary schools to offer childcare, not actual teaching whilst there's no expectation for all pupils to be in.

At the same time, I would want childminders and private nurseries to operate on a similar basis so only offering care to the children in families where the provision of childcare is completely essential to them being able to work. It might be that church halls and other community buildings are asked to support this so childminders have more space for children to spread out.

I would expect that anyone in schools etc. would have whatever PPE is appropriate for reducing risk of transmission. If that means children wear masks too, so be it... I'm not sure about the order of other businesses reopening but it's going to be important to ensure that those people who are vulnerable are still protected so my plan would encourage continued working from home and online learning for those families.

Let's be glad it won't be me in charge - I'm not really cut out for improving the economy!

Masks production in uk ideally reuseable sterilisable.

Protect the vulnerable as well as shielded (though might expect they go on UC).

Keep ban on gatherings.

More restaurants outside where you can sit with household.

More hand washing stations everywhere.
Ramp up antibacterial hand gel production.

Agree school only for certain year groups and only if parents want to send. So centralised online work. (It's 35£ for a kindle).

Antibody tests (as those people can get back to work)

Testing cases and checking up on them staying at home.
Not sure about public transport. But the masks might help.

I dont see how nurseries or younger kids can reopen unless very restricted numbers or taking only immune kids.

To be giving it to 1 person is basically only seeing your family??

“ Protect the vulnerable as well as shielded (though might expect they go on UC)”

Wondering what posters mean by this. Many shielded will want to return to work and that should be their choice, not the choice of the state.