So if today you were given the job of "minister for designing lockdown exit strategy "

[hobnobsaremyfavourite]

Catchy job title I know
What would you do and how would you plan it?
Not asking for when
Don't want a debate about when it would start
Just wondering, it seems like an impossible task

First I would focus on creating the conditions in which it would be possible to relax the restrictions. We are currently working in the dark, not having any idea of who has it.

Get a program of mass testing in place, with the follow up of every contact for anyone who tests positive. Anyone exposed goes into serious lockdown with their families and is provided with social, economic and medical support.

Start with those on the front line, key workers (including teachers caring for children of key workers.

Continue to test, for those exposed rather than just those who show symptoms. People without symptoms are going to be even more likely than those with symptoms to be spreading it.

Social distancing to remain as just the way we doing things here. The way the treatment of blood as if for HIV became routine in the '80s to avoid stigmatising people

Once you have that in place, you could start easing the restrictions in area which could remain contained, say a small town. Observe the results and then adjust as you go along

Follow the science to find out whether people who have had it are indeed immune. What are the circumstances under which people could get it again? Different strains? Misdiagnoses of original condition

Alongside this, build up political agreement with individuals and parties. Be absolutely transparent about your plans and admit to any mistakes as you go along. Take people with you. Tap into the general public's willingness to be lead at this time.

Notice how in this global age we are all interconnected. Knock of the stunts

It would help to give up any idea of keeping contracts for eg ventilators for your chums who support your political party.

Accept that there will be people who try to scupper your best efforts and take the general people with you.

Just as we have a limit of passengers on board buses, a limit fir the a Tube - temporarily at least.

All employers who can sort wfh should do so.

Send the kids back to school and people back to work.
Keep people over 70 indoors.
Nearly all the deaths are people o et 70 or with heart disease.
(Where I live the over 70s are all out walling their dogs)

Stella why over 70s deprived of free choice? If it’s because you don’t wan them clogging up hospitals, let them opt out of treatment.

What will you do about a 74 year old doctor still working?

Anti body testing that is accurate
Testing of anyone with symptoms with track and trace
Continue to self isolate for vulnerable groups
A controversial one - allow migrant workers in to pick the food we will all need rather than it rotting in fields. Unless we can get sufficient resource from our working population.
Phased opening of schools and universities so they can still socially distance e.g. Practical subjects.
Phased opening of manufacturing and construction industries, again with social distancing I.e where you can't WFH.
Small shops.
Be prepared to have further lock downs.

Maybe a staged return to start with .Small Children (Primary age ) half the class on alternate days .Reopen some non food shops .Say in a few weeks if all well ,then some Restaurants /Coffee shops but only every other table to be occupied .Beaches/Parks to reopen but no sunbathers!(We live close to the beach on the South Coast ,and every warm day you cant put a pin between people!)Senior Schools, the same policy as primaries and close supervision of children by staff at breaks or keep them in ATM! Workers only back on certain days too, to prevent overcrowding on tube trains (Unless of course you are a construction worker and the rules obviously dont count!)

Margaritatime,180 Romanian fruit picking workers arrived yesterday ,at Stansted Airport with more on the way over the next few weeks! To be sent around the country .Apparently all welcome and few checks if they "appear well" !

@dottiedodah Thank you, I hadn't heard that.

1. Reopening of non-essential shops (but not pubs, cafes etc)
2. Relax rules on leaving the house, but maintain all other social distancing measures.
3. Relax WFH measures for those under 40 and not vulnerable only
4. Reopen schools for pupils in last 2 GCSE or A level years
5. Reopen pubs and cafes but with strict capacity limits
6. Relax WFH measures for all and reopen schools fully. Relax public transport restrictions.
7. Relax social distancing except for bans on public gatherings of more than 10 people.
8. Lift all remaining restrictions

The above to be combined with extensive testing and with the proviso that one or more steps back can be taken if needed.

@picklemewalnuts totally agree.

If anyone's interested there's a CNN piece here on what airlines are doing to increase social distancing, including the idea of leaving the "middle seats" empty edition.cnn.com/travel/article/airlines-social-distancing-policies-during-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

Given the financial impact I really don't believe leisure flying will stop until there's a vaccine, so adjustments will just have to be made to keep travellers as s afe as possible ... and these are some of them

Test test test, what we should be doing anyway. Contact tracing and then measures in cities with high numbers. If people have symptoms they should be able to get tested so they can isolate. Telling people with coughs to isolate is too late. Eventually evening lockdowns so no bars, restaurants, cinemas open after 6pm. Schools back first, youngest are less affected and the evidence that school closing helps is patchy. That allows people to go back to work again. Limit international travel, so many cases arose from people going to conferences, holidays etc and then spread it a lot.

It's not that hard other countries are doing a better job.

Everything @janeskettle said, but with a centralized quarantine for those who enter the country.

Tests. So many tests. Lockdown is lifted through testing.

Realistically though, you don't even need to really design this to any great degree, because China already did it. It's not a secret.

This thread has all pretty good suggestions, some are very indepth.

So that's what a small group of mumsnetters can come up with in a few mins.

I guarantee that the government will do worse and months after say "sorry mistakes were made" ....

Devils advocate approach:

Just say "business as usual from next Monday."

Some people will be too scared, so will stay home and effectively self isolate.

No favouratism of one type of business over another.
International travel allowed again.
All state payment schemes stop.
Gov tax reveue restarts
UK possibly gets a head-start on the rest of the world economies.

Risks:

• Lots of deaths. Maybe the three strains internationally can get you separately so we get a rise in maybe you can get re-infected. Maybe we will all get it one way or another anyway.
• Unions revolt. Public service (NHS, Schools, transport) and private manufacturing etc come to a standstill. Possible self-enforcing lockdown. Negative economic impact.
• Supply chain disruption through the transition phase back to usual.

Mitigation:

• Be ready to lock down again if a second wave starts. Testing would be really important.
• Keep the ICU capacity available to cope if possible,
• Get the unions and media on board with the wider economic argument and that this approach is best.
• be clear with industry that this is the proposed approach in advance so they can plan accordingly (I think this is why lockdown happened slowly in the UK - allowing some re-balancing in industry in advance).

Whilst I'm not sure it is the best approach, I think it is an approach. And could work.

Personally I quite like the quiet of lockdown so the transition will be quite a shock.

1. to start with allowing those that can't work from home to go back to work employers would need to show that it wasn't possible to work from home easy in some cases electricians etc ( ie not I just prefer my staff in the office) and staged starting/ finishing times so not everyone on public transport at once 8-4, 9-5 and 10-6 and 11-7

to enable people to go back to work children have to go back to school so partial reopening of schools starting with nursery and primary maybe half class one week half the next with extension work to do at home for other week ( like other countries they start with primary as secondary school age children don't create a childcare problem when parents back to work) and this is very controversial but maybe 1 worker per household if 2 workers childcare needs to be looked at carefully as we don't want older grandparents 70+ doing childcare younger grandparents or those with no underlying health issues at all could be fine ( not just blanket over 70's)

1. to allow small shops to re-open with social distancing and suitable shielding see how this goes then larger shops but no real browsing for fun certainly not shopping as a recreational activity garden centres that sell plants small clothes or shoe shops books, tech shops etc department stores would be much later

( 1 and 2 probably together)

1. encourage businesses to re-open sensibly and all schools back limited access to parks gardens and countryside beaches maybe surnames A_H monday and Friday I-P tuesday and Saturday Q-Z wednesday and Sunday, Thursday reserved for vulnerable

1. people who can work from home to go to office max once a week not all on same day staggered starts compulsory

5, larger shops open but flow directed and no browsing for fun still social distance

1. allowing small social gatherings ie max 10 for weddings etc but no parties, small group religious services with social distancing alternate pews or rows of prayer mats etc only sit in family groups no coffee tea meals after family groups allowed to met in own homes travel to visit relatives

1. non contact sport allowed to resume with distancing ie tennis badminton limited swimming ie reduced numbers at pool with 30 minute pre- bookable slots museums art galleries re-open but limited numbers for bookable slots

1. almost everyone allowed to work as normal but staggered start times and working from home at least half the time to be encouraged

1. still no large mass gatherings ( over 100 people then later 200) concerts festivals sports matches but slowly re introduced all seated events with spare seats between family groups and alternate rows

once good testing etc available life goes back to normal

though it doesn't fit in with we are all in it together, areas with less infection etc should be allowed to re open

Shut the borders for a start.Everyone stay on lockdown until numbers are significantly reduced then a slow phase of bussinesses starting to open but only when numbers are down and everyone's confident the virus is slowing.
I think wfh when possible should stay in place as long as possible you don't want everyone rushing back and cause another outbreak. Schools/nurseries shut until September except open for key workers children.

And all but essential foriegn travel stopped until next year.

I'd get on the phone to all those big pharma labs who have said they can test test test, but Public Health England haven't responded, and get them to test test test and get those chemical orders in.

I'd also ban hospitals from discharging elderly patients back into their old people's homes. Surely some hotels and halls of residence could be converted into quarantine facilities with kitchen staff and a small number of nurses on call?

Plenty of people have already had the illness, so I would invite them for antibody testing. Since a great many picked it up from travelling abroad, they will all have passports - just shove a "fit to travel stamp" in that and register them on a database (people found to be forging will have passports confiscated).

I would ask people in flats to register online to be allocated a spot of green outdoor space for their use several hours a day.

I would let farmers build more accommodation for pickers

Then I would see how the other countries are getting on with phased releases.

(Actually I would start by opening garden centres and DIY stores because I need to repair and repaint my shed and I'm failing miserably at growing plants for my window boxes).

I would wait 3 weeks and then review what other countries have done and what has been more or less successful in reducing the rate of infection.

It’s interesting to think how nurseries and childminders are going to manage with social distancing. That’s a good proportion of the workforce without childcare, especially when over 70s will still be expected to be at home so grandparents providing care is out of the question.

“I'd also ban hospitals from discharging elderly patients back into their old people's homes. Surely some hotels and halls of residence could be converted into quarantine facilities with kitchen staff and a small number of nurses on call?”

But the staff would be unable to avoid bringing covid 19 in there too.

1. Allowed to see family
2. Schools open
3. Gradually open shops and businesses, but as quickly as possible so livelihoods are saved.
4. All combined with testing.

Shielding will continue to receive support to do so if they wish to. It’s likely to be for ages so nothing compulsory.

The country can’t stay like this for long.