Real UK death toll likely to already be at least 20,000

[Cam77]

The UK death toll is probably already in excess of 20,000 (ie at least 50% higher than reported), possibly more.

The British government seems to be purposefully ignoring those who have died in care homes. Multiple reports state that, across Europe, evidence suggest that at least 40% of total deaths are occurring in care homes. In the UK, deaths in care homes, of which there are more than 15,000 of in the UK, have up until now not been included in the official figure. Most other European countries include these deaths in the official figure. The real UK death toll therefore is likely to be at least 20,000 possibly as high as 25,000.

"Data collected from official sources in Italy, Spain, Ireland, Belgium and France by the International Long Term Care Policy Network (LTCPN) showed 42-57 per cent of all deaths linked to Covid-19 were among care home residents."

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-cases-uk-eu-italy-spain-ireland-a9463846.html

The real death toll is likely to be lower, seeing as currently we are counting any death with a positive test as a covid-19 death. Despite the fact that many of them would have died anyway.

Look at the stats for average deaths this month over the last 10 years. Most regions are still below or around the average. The exceptions are London and Midlands which have hit highest in recent years - but are still not astronomically high.

But yes, care home deaths should be counted.

What is your point?

The French are saying that care home deaths account for a third of all their deaths, so yes I believe the death toll is higher than we know, but I’m not sure it will be double.

People in care homes are a special case, they are isolated anyway. It's more relevant for the figures to reflect the majority of the population, the people who would not be expected to die if they didn't catch the virus.

Remember in a normal month thousands of care home residents die. Since COVID-19 started there would be approx. 40,000 care home deaths expected.

We'll all die anyway. The point is would you have died then if you didn't have C-19

No, the U.K. Gov is in fact counting care home deaths. The daily total is just the hospital deaths.

But another part of the U.K. Gov, The ONS is counting all deaths including care home deaths from COVID. They collect the data from death certificates and publish the figures weekly. The official toll is then adjusted to add those deaths in.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

"The real death toll is likely to be lower, seeing as currently we are counting any death with a positive test as a covid-19 death. Despite the fact that many of them would have died anyway. "

I believe this is the case in every country. "Would have died anyway" (when exactly? are you sure?) is vague to the point of being meaningless, hence virtually all countries are counting positive tests as official figures.

See statistician comment on difference between the hospital death toll (NHS numbers) and ONS numbers (all deaths)
“The latest comparable data for deaths involving COVID-19 with a date of death up to 3 April, show there were 6,235 deaths in England and Wales. When looking at data for England, this is 15% higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of COVID-19 on the death certificate, including suspected COVID-19, as well as deaths in the community.

“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since Week 2 (early January) 2000.””

The figure are not being ignored, reporting is more cumbersome in the community and so is much slower to be updated

Growth rate.

Scotland ONS is also doing this.
So YABU the U.K. Gov is counting ALL Covid deaths including care home deaths.

Obviously there are more covid related deaths than the daily numbers, we all know that, it isn't being ignored, you can find the numbers online.

No one knows what the outcome will be until we have more data, that goes without saying imo

Remember in a normal month thousands of care home residents die. Since COVID-19 started there would be approx. 40,000 care home deaths expected.

I do not understand people making this argument. You do understand that a lot of covid deaths will be on top of the normal expected deaths. People don't stop having heart attacks and strokes just because there's a pandemic. Saying oh well yes X amount of people have died of covid in care homes but loads of people die in care homes is dumb. These are often extra deaths.

Latest figures say there have been around 6000 more deaths in the week ending 3rd April than the normal 5 yr average - and these figures are almost a fortnight behind remember so will get worse. It's not mostly the same as normal, the figures aren't particularly in date.

It's like the whole "well did they die of covid or with covid" debate made by people tryinf to sound clever. Dying with covid 19 doesn't mean someone didn't die of it, it's right for records to show all deaths with the disease. It's not like American crime shows were a single cause of death is always obvious. When my grandmother died she had leukaemia but it was pneumonia that got her. Both were listed on her death certificate because it's fucking complex. Did the leukaemia and chemo compromise her immune system and cause the pneumonia and was therefore the true cause of her death, or was it the fact that the pneumonia meant she couldn't get enough oxygen therefore the true cause of death was pneumonia. Anyone with half a brain cell can see the two things both contributed. To say someone shouldn't have covid on their death certificate because well they already had an illness is so stupid.

@DesignedForLife no, you need to look at the most recent weekly death stats which are an all-time record, above January peaks (which get distorted by late registration of deaths over winter)

We do already, very very clearly, have around 20k or more excess deaths. Look at the data more carefully.

Over Christmas or New Year I should say

They aren’t being ignored though. The system is slow but they will be added on.

The British government seems to be purposefully ignoring those who have died in care homes.

They're very careful to say they are announcing hospital deaths at the daily news conference. The point of these figures is so we can see the trajectory of the pandemic from day to day, using comparable and relatively up-to-date data. Including deaths outside of hospital that take longer to work their way into statistics would obscure the trends.

One of the international statistics web sites I use made it clear that for France they go out of their way to take care home deaths out of those daily figures, in order to make them comparable with other countries.

I was slightly annoyed last night at people getting upset because care home deaths aren't included in the daily figures. The purpose of the daily figures is functional, they are not supposed to act as some sort of memorial honouring everyone who has died.

Care home deaths are being counted in the "official" registered death figures.

Do you have any idea how difficult it is to collect daily stats from so many different source. Registered deaths have an established reporting process but it takes time for the data to be collated and published. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Unlike many countries the UK Government has had a transparency policy for years and the data is freely available. Covid -19 is a new virus and it takes time to adjust data sets and to start collating new information.
The government have been open that the daily statistics are deaths in hospital not in all situations. Good statistical practice is to define a data set, and say what that is, and to use the same methodology to allow for accurate comparison which is what is happening.

Boris was clear sadly people will die, some from covid-19 and others with covid-19. At present we don't have published statistics on whether people died from or with covid-19, an important distinction. The reality for family and friends is that the loss of a loved one is awful regardless of the reason. Scaremongering that we are somehow not being told the true picture is unhelpful and untrue.

Not sure if someone linked to this already, but apparently ONS has a procedure to determine the main cause of death. Apparently in March for people who had COVID mentioned on the death certificate, 86% were counted as dying from it, in terms of their procedure. So it's not true that someone who dies with COVID is always counted as dying from it. Apparently the rules for determining the main cause of death come from WHO.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/measuringpreexistinghealthconditionsindeathcertificationdeathsinvolvingcovid19march2020

As a pp said, the deaths have spiked massively in the last couple of weeks compared to the average for this time of year.
But even if they hadn't, I presume the increase in deaths is also being partially offset by lockdown? Less people on the roads mean less accidents, there are less children out and about, fewer people out getting pissed and suffering injuries or alcohol poisoning, maybe even less violent crime? Though domestic violence and suicides may increase, offsetting it the other way.

Over what time period? 20,000 deaths over two years: tiny; 20,000 in a week: huge; 20,000 deaths in a month: less than half of normal.

One problem about deaths in the community is that a lot of them are assumed to be due to Covid-19, but only a small proportion are tested. I know quite a few people who have 'definitely had it' (and I have no reason to doubt that), but they have never been tested. Had they died, who would know whether or not they should be included in the Covid numbers?

There does seem to be a nasty 'flu around that can lead to pneumonia and could get confused with Covid-19.

It's not just the question of counting (or not counting, either because delayed data or more sinister fudging) care home deaths in the total. People in care homes are as a group the most vulnerable to this virus in our society, not just because they are old and often frail, with multiple comorbidities but because they rely on the care of paid employees who go in and out of the home and look after multiple residents. A person of the same age and general health living with a partner or other family members would likely be much more cocooned.

What I don't understand is how, strategically, the lockdown was intended to benefit them in the first place?

What we seem to have ended up with are large numbers of people whose chance of serious illness is minute cooped up at home, neither infecting nor being infected, and many of the people who most need our protection being hung out to dry.

On my central London street the local drug dealer has upgraded to a new car (Hummer!) and seems to be doing a fine lockdown business at his usual stops. Children screaming constantly from small flats in large Victorian houses (social housing). People roaming on the pavements all the time so they're much busier than usual -- presumably because they can't all bear to stay at home all the time and all the other places they'd normally be are shut. Normally if I walk to the corner shop I bump into one person max. Yesterday on my walk I saw seven people between my house and the same shop (still open, very busy, constant queue outside that trails dangerously into the road even without 2m gaps).

Remember in a normal month thousands of care home residents die

That's true but at the moment there is a huge surge in deaths because of Covid.
A care home I had to visit this week had 5 deaths in 48 hours, another had 11 deaths over 2 weeks.
This is not normal, staff are terrified as they've never seen anything like it.

The fact that someone in a care home dies and also has a positive doesn't in my opinion means it's SOLELY due to covid.

Many of those people are extremely frail and likely to pass away imminently with many other conditions. Covid is not necessarily the main thing that actually causes the death.