To think that we won't have a total lockdown because the Govt needs people to keep catching C-19

[KittyRainbow]

I keep seeing people desperate for there to be a full lock down. With the army on the streets and people being arrested for being more than 50m from their homes and I wonder if I'm missing something?

Everything I've heard from the Govt so far indicates that they are not trying to stop the virus, but rather limit the number of people who have it at the same time. So they actually need people to be out in limited numbers to continue the spread in a managed fashion.

In fact I'm getting the impression now that they are surprised at how well people are following the rules. And that the police are, in some cases, being over zealous in their reaction to people out and about. Which makes me think they actually expected more people to bend the rules and spread the virus a little more freely.

So I don't think they will introduce more or tighter measures to keep people indoors as it would actually be counted productive and increase the risk of a massive spike in cases when the current rules are relaxed.

Bloody testing again!!

We don't manufacture the chemicals

We don't manufacture the swabs

We don't manufacture test kits

We relied on buying said items in

Countries that do manufacture said items are using them. That's why Germany has just this week offered to sell the UK a number of ventilators.

In the meantime we have had to rely on companies being able to switch their output, test their output, put the reliable output I to manufacture.

We have been a country that supplies services, not manufacture goods, for decades.

This is one of the main reasons we have had such delays. Harry Potter didn't deliver what was needed, Hermione was, for once, lacking just the right spell!

The bigger question is, when they lift the lockdown, will you return to work or stay home.

Freddie I will stay at home!

Kids will go back to school though

Without lockdown we would see thousands , probably or tens of thousands of deaths daily . Probably over half a million in a year. Or many many more , because the death rate would be higher once the nhs crumples. The nhs could not cope, the morgues could not cope. Society and industry could not cope.

Relaxing lockdown too soon leads to either to accepting the tens of thousands of deaths or another equally hard lockdown. Both not acceptable options. One kills people the other the economy.

There are controlled ways out of lockdown without waiting for vaccine. All have compromises and some on going restrictions but should be enough to get most of the economy back up and running. It is possible. Austria are starting on the process, China have done it, South Korea avoided getting into needing a lockdown in the first place.

They've over-egged it, people are too scared and not going out enough and not yet primed for the inevitable lift of lockdown.

As DeathByBoredom suggests in another thread, there will be a change in mood music in the short-term - a move away from the focus on number of deaths to death rate (very low) reports of D&V and more on the collapse of business and so on.

Communication from the top has been really pretty confusing and has led many people to believe that we’re on lockdown to try and eradicate it. I think the message needs to be made much clearer: “pretty much everyone is expected to catch this, because a vaccine is at least two years away and we can’t all stay indoors and not do our jobs until then. We are trying to ensure that people catch it slowly and steadily so as not to burden the health system.”

117 died yesterday, the rest died between April 1st and April 8th.

We need to get it slowly, we also need to get it before the winter flu season starts.

Communication from the top has been really pretty confusing and has led many people to believe that we’re on lockdown to try and eradicate it. I think the message needs to be made much clearer: “pretty much everyone is expected to catch this, because a vaccine is at least two years away and we can’t all stay indoors and not do our jobs until then. We are trying to ensure that people catch it slowly and steadily so as not to burden the health system.”

Yes, and it's very frustrating.

"980 people died with the virus in hospital There is currently no data on how many have died of the virus, nor of deaths outside hospitals, though me figures are collated weekly "

I think midgebaby is right about how much worse it would be - both in terms of lives lost and also severity and extent of economic damage - if there were an unchecked peak

Without lockdown we would see thousands , probably or tens of thousands of deaths daily . Probably over half a million in a year. Or many many more , because the death rate would be higher once the nhs crumples. The nhs could not cope, the morgues could not cope. Society and industry could not cope.

I don't really blame you for thinking in this way, because it's definitely what the main news outlets have suggested, but please try to find some more up to date information.

To have everyone catch the virus whilst simultaneously not overwhelming the NHS , you will need to control the rate of infection and it will take over 10 years to achieve !

Based on. 15% needing hospital treatment , 2% needing ICU, 1% dying, recruiting many many more nurses because we need to trust covid patients at or above the current rate and get back to normal NHS procedures

So really, suppression ( slightly longer lockdown now ) followed by rather more stringent testing, trace and quarantine processes after is the only viable way forward. Because wave upon wave of lockdown would be too horrific especially for the NHS staff

Grim thought but I wonder how many bodies they haven't discovered yet.

My estimate is based on 1%death rate provided treatment is available for the 15% that get hospitalised and
Herd immunity achievable at somewhere between 60% and 80%

What updated information do you have please?

Herd immunity is only achieved with over 90% being vaccinated. We have no vaccine yet.

Herd immunity..whereby a virus dies out through lack of hosts is usually used for animal vaccination,

In truth it doesn't matter at all if the immunity is given through vaccination or through the effect of people developing immunity post infection .the effect is th same

don't really blame you for thinking in this way, because it's definitely what the main news outlets have suggested, but please try to find some more up to date information.

Can you clarify what you mean?

Apologies if this is dim -

On average 2000 people die in the uk every day.

We are losing 900 people a day to covid.

Is this 2900 people dying? Or somewhere between?

Pumpkinpie1 "The idea that Everyone needs To get us the stupid argument I’ve heard" what was your plan then? How close are you to finding a cure?

Everyone catching it is not quite right anyway. It's most people gradually catching it starting with those least likely to die of it.

Once a lot of people have had it then herd immunity applies and the chances of the next person catching become less daily. So we keep the most vulnerable isolated and as many of the rest as we can manage.

And yes they will have taken into account irresponsible people flouting rules/guidelines, but why not let them go first? They are more expendable than NHS staff right now.

There is always the chance they will not be able to make a vaccine, there are viruses out there with no vaccine despite a lot of research, HIV being one of them. There will be plans being made that allow for that the be the case.

Times today had v positive news about vaccine developments / yet still only 80% sure there would be one this year. It would still need to be tested, made etc

Newgirls- although we won’t have accurate figures for a while, we are almost certainly not talking about 900 extra deaths per day. Many people dying with Covid are people that would die anyway this year. It will take a while to see how many extra deaths the virus will have caused.

The number of new cases it’s what’s important and that’s been steady (ie not rising) for 8/9 days now.

What do you mean? That the number of new cases each day has been steady?

@Marginalgain it is what would happen. There are actual mass graves in New York. Actual ice rinks were used as makeshift mortuaries in Italy.

Communication from the top has been really pretty confusing and has led many people to believe that we’re on lockdown to try and eradicate it. I think the message needs to be made much clearer: “pretty much everyone is expected to catch this, because a vaccine is at least two years away and we can’t all stay indoors and not do our jobs until then. We are trying to ensure that people catch it slowly and steadily so as not to burden the health system.

This is the message I had got from the Govt and PHE but other people really seem to think that we are supposed to be preventing people catching it and they are terrified of it (which I understand for people with known vulnerabilities because it is scary if you are high risk).

It made no sense to me until I first WFH and spent a morning watching the BBC news channel. It was clearly designed to scare people, I felt scared after a couple of hours even knowing that nothing had changed since before I watched it.

It's been very insidious and cleverly done. Except now they think it's worked too well so are starting to push a different message.