To want to know where new infections come from

[CoffeeDeprivation]

In my neighborhood most people are doing social distancing and other than the random few in the news, I cannot see many people not following guidelines. Where are these new infections coming from? The rates of infection are predicted to rise )as per news today), how are these people going to get infected? I understand many might be key workers who are facing the piblic, but what about the others? How are the others getting infected? I guess what I want to know is whether they have not observed social distancing, or they have been using public transport, they have got it from deliveries, they went to the shop to top up, etc. We have quite a lot of info on number of cases and deaths, but I don't seem to find much on how are people getting infected now, in lockdown. Passed from people in their household who had the virus last week? I think I want to get a proper sense of risk. I am following all advice, but I don't fully trust the media and I was wondering if any of you know of cases and how they got infected. Are there cases who got infected through shopping? Home deliveries? Touching trolley handles? The longer this goes on, the more worried I'm getting about getting infected by some random mishandling of packaging or inadvertently touching a surface. I wanted to hear some first-hand experiences. Do you know of anyone with the virus? How/when did they got infected?

Its an incredibly infectious virus, some people have it it with no or almost no symptoms. Supermarket staff don't generally have PPE. Social workers, care workers etc don't have enough PPE. And not everyone is following social distancing. I have family members who have coronavirus (they have the cough/temp etc although haven't been tested) they live in London and think they caught it pre lockdown on public transport.

I would guess family members/friends of those who were infected prior to lockdown. Then there would be keyworkers, those who don’t follow social distancing etc like you said.

*and

Not everybody is able to isolate their household entirely. There are the children of key workers still going to school - they could catch it at school without necessarily having noticeable symptoms and bring it home to their families.

And some households have carers and district nurses coming in and out daily.

Remember that the only confirmed cases are in hospital, so they could have picked up the virus 3+ weeks ago, had a 2 week incubation period and then been ill for a week before being admitted to hospital.

But yes some people are asymptomatic and it can be passed on before symptoms appear, so the guy who walked too close in Tesco, or the child you walked past on the daily walk or the delivery driver touching your post or whatever else could pass the virus on. The lockdown never claimed to stop the spread entirely but to slow it down.

However I think the most likely new cases will be a) people not abiding the regulations and b) people who still have to go to work. The risk of working in an office with 50 others or in a public facing job are far higher than the risk from brief contact and parcels.

There are plenty of people still going out and about, and still within guidelines. Shoppers, people going to and from work and using public transport. Children going between parents. Those looking after livestock. It's not just keyworkers who are working. People are working from home if they can, but many are expected to go to work if they can't. People helping the vulnerable. That's just off the top of my head. Not everyone can stay at home, but if they can, they should. The aim of the restrictions is to reduce the number catching the virus, not halt it as that isn't possible.

For those who are able to keep the family at home- shops, deliveries or a family member catching it 2 weeks ago then the next family member taking 2 weeks to get symptoms etc.

For people who cannot stay at home then just normal life - public transport, schools/nurseries, work plus everything that people who are at home are contending with.

Can I just clarify something? The 2metres or more thing is to limit the chance of catching it if someone suddenly coughs or sneezes as it’s thought that coughs and sneezes project to just short of that distance? Surely you can’t catch it from someone walking past you with only a metre distance who isn’t sneezing/coughing. Its in their bodily fluids which they need to project or wipe onto a surface that you then touch and put in your mouth or have I got the reasoning behind social distancing wrong?

New infections being announced today will be people being tested who were infected just over 2 weeks ago (by things like the predicted ‘Mother’s Day’ spread by everyone who decided the rules didn’t apply to them on 22nd March...17 days ago, the people who had one last hurrah in the pub on the 20th March 19 days ago...which was also around the time of the sunny weekend where people ignored the advice. Also schools had only just shut so a symptomatic kids could have then been passing it on at home. All only showing now).

As most of the confirmed cases are coming from hospital testing that means those people were infected, showed symptoms 7/10 days later and ended up in hospital 7/10 days after symptoms started showing as that is when the illness tends to take a turn for the worse if it is going to. The effect of the proper lockdown hopefully will start showing soon - but the figures we are seeing right now effectively pre-date that. Plus the people who caught it from all the examples above then passed it on to family members etc which can take a few days (& some are more likely I guess to have been careless whilst symptom free if they were part of the ‘this is pointless, I’m young and healthy brigade?).

5G👀

Joking. But some people really seem to believe it

Agree it’s the time lag between point of infection and being tested after hospital admission, which will be 2-3 weeks.

As the rise hadn’t been quite as bad as feared, I’m wondering if people will break distancing rules and meet to (as happened on Mother’s Day) leading to another rise 3 weeks from now.

Bob is a keyworker. Bob picks it up at work.
Bob lives with his wife Clare. Clare is infected by Bob. Clare goes food shopping.
While shopping, Clare brushes against a shelf.
Damien touches same shelf. Damien takes it home, passes it onto his family, plus elderly neighbour he picks shopping up for.

And so it goes on. People are infectious without realising and pass it on unknowingly.

I've woken up with distinct symptoms today. My activities outside of the house in the past week have involved:

1st - 1 hour walk around neighbourhood.
3rd - 1 hour walk around neighbourhood.
5th - 1 hour walk around neighbourhood.
7th - 5m warm up run before exercising in the house (literally about 1/4 mile).

All of the walks were following distancing. Maybe the odd person strayed within 2m, but no touching, no coming near to someone coughing.

I've also been as far as, say, the bins at the end of the drive a couple of times, and have received maybe 3-4 deliveries (all either to my postbox or following distancing with the driver).

I have been feeling tired since Monday, but a dry, persistent cough began this morning. I feel warm, though my temperature is normal.

It is everywhere, you cant stop it, all we are doing is slowing down the rate of infections, they are still happening

I think in my head they were showing symptoms after a 5-7 day incubation period, but yes, once you also take into account a week at home and maybe another week in hospital, the deaths now are as you said likely to be from before lockdown.

We have not been out much since lockdown, twice to the shop, twice for a walk. But I am finding myself mentally counting the days since last time I was at the corner shop and breathing with relief after the 5th day. My worry comes from knowing that the government anticipates a big increase in cases for the next week, but as you also said, this increase would be post-Mother's day and sunny weekend picnics? :( By that same account, we might expect another peak in 4 weeks time if people do not stay at home over Easter?

I have been trying to get milk online for over a week now. I am sending my husband to the shop this morning and I feel uneasy to bring back to zero the "days since I had contact with the outside world" counter.

I probably should add that I have a chronic autoimmune condition and although I am not in the high risk, I cannot help but worry that my immune system might be not up to scratch if I were to get this.

@thecatsthecats sorry to hear, I hope you recover quickly and all your symptoms remain mild. Your case is probably my worry, following guidance and minimising contact, yet somehow still getting it :(

Joggers. The fucking inconsiderate joggers panting on people's faces on the main streets.

People without symptoms could be contagious for three weeks.
People who have caught it may then get symptoms up to three weeks later (nobody is sure).
The total lag times are long.

@CoffeeDeprivation

Thanks. To be honest, I wouldn't think anything of it more than a mild irritation if it weren't for the pandemic.

My sister has had it also (she has asthma), and apart from a few rough days, made a full recovery without intervention.

(of the symptoms I mean!)

Most new infections at the moment will be within households.

@thecats - that's interesting. More or less what I do. Walking, out to bins and one supermarket per week with lots of hand washing (no running). Did you do anything different in the last week of March? Assuming the long incubation period could be true for some.

A lot of the cases that will shake through the system in the next few weeks will be care homes - as has been the case in Italy, Spain, Germany and parts of the USA

It's all those people with huawei phones...or so I've seen on social media anyway, I was remonstrated for buying one as that's apparently why I've been ill