To want to know where new infections come from

[CoffeeDeprivation]

In my neighborhood most people are doing social distancing and other than the random few in the news, I cannot see many people not following guidelines. Where are these new infections coming from? The rates of infection are predicted to rise )as per news today), how are these people going to get infected? I understand many might be key workers who are facing the piblic, but what about the others? How are the others getting infected? I guess what I want to know is whether they have not observed social distancing, or they have been using public transport, they have got it from deliveries, they went to the shop to top up, etc. We have quite a lot of info on number of cases and deaths, but I don't seem to find much on how are people getting infected now, in lockdown. Passed from people in their household who had the virus last week? I think I want to get a proper sense of risk. I am following all advice, but I don't fully trust the media and I was wondering if any of you know of cases and how they got infected. Are there cases who got infected through shopping? Home deliveries? Touching trolley handles? The longer this goes on, the more worried I'm getting about getting infected by some random mishandling of packaging or inadvertently touching a surface. I wanted to hear some first-hand experiences. Do you know of anyone with the virus? How/when did they got infected?

I personally think we should be able to shove people, or hit them with something. If they wasn't near us, we couldn't reach them.

You can't be serious?

It’s the time lag thing. People are only being tested when admitted to hospital. On patient.com (I think it was) it said the most up to date research points at the mean incubation period being 11.5 days, then they’re saying it’s taking well over a week sometimes much longer before someone is ill enough to go be admitted, so most people who are being tested will have caught the virus 3-4 weeks ago - if not longer, so before the serious lockdown. Then I think it’s a given they’re likely to give to at least one other person living in their house.

Then of course you have the fact that there are still people working and that this is infectious 2 days before symptoms show so there’ll be pockets of infection there still.

And you have the idiots who aren’t taking it seriously. Our neighbours keep having BBQs with their grown up kids and their partners, one of them picked it up before the lockdown that’s the potential of 6 of them getting it!

@Ispywithmycynicaleye it’s not quite the case - they don’t know really what the aetiology is with this as it is causing perfectly healthy people to get very sick and die - unlike flu.

And also it’s about volume we have a certain amount of herd immunity in the population to flu and there is the vaccination programme which increases it further. Meaning less people get sick and need hospitalising each year - however, many of our hospitals do still get overwhelmed during flu season. 2017 was particularly bad.

Now take this virus....no one is immune, there is no herd immunity, if hospitals can get overwhelmed when there is. Imagine what would happen here if we didn’t have these measures in place. Not taking into account the fact that this is far more deadly than flu.

I could be wrong tho [sic].
No. I think that you are completely right. It’s just scaremongering in the media that has just got every single government in the developed world and the WHO all frightened.

@thecatsthecats I think the latest research says the mean incubation period is 11 days with the longest been 15. This was on a very reputable website. So it’s likely you could have picked it up well before the 1st - if it indeed is that.

Let’s just clarify a couple of things, because I’m seeing a lot of mistaken ideas on social media including MN about social distancing.

The aim of social distancing is to

A) reduce the threat of catching the virus

and

B) reduce the amount of virus you get within your system if you are unlucky enough to catch it, because evidence suggests the more virus you take in, the more ill you become. The amount of virus within your body is known as your viral load.

Similarly being outside rather than inside to do certain activities - it only reduces the risk.

I’m seeing a lot of posters on Mumsnet who seem to think that as long as they loosely follow the guidelines and stay 2m apart they are magically immune from this incredibly infectious virus. Coronavirus doesn’t get its tape measure out to check if you’re 2m plus apart or only 1m 99cm, but some people really do seem to think it works like that from what I read.

Also social distancing - staying apart, keeping moving as opposed to sunbathing etc - means you should only fleetingly spend time with most people outside your household as you pass them. The more time you spend with an infected person, the more virus they will shed and higher your viral load will be.

@Tellmetruth4 no, the distance of 2m is not designed to put you out of the range of coughs and sneezes. In fact a very recent study in the USA has shown that a cough can travel 6m and a sneeze 8m. Clearly these sort of distances would be impossible to maintain in most circumstances., but 2m should be more achievable. It only reduces the risk.

To another poster, yes of course you can pick up the virus from surfaces, it is extremely infectious which is why it is so challenging.

All of these reasons are why, to protect yourself and others, you should go out in a very limited way and be very cautious while we try to drive down the level of Covid-19 cases.. Every time you leave your home there is a level of risk, and also you may well be spreading the virus yourself without being aware of it.

This is why it is so very foolish to be one of these people why try to bend and ignore the rules and think they are so amusing. When you come up with “ingenious”ruses to bend or break the rules, you simply increase the risk to yourself and others and undo all the good work achieved by lockdown so far. You are not “getting one over” on the government, you are taking a serious and genuine risk with your own life and others.

It is a dickish and really stupid thing to do.

I would urge anybody not sure about how the virus works to educate themselves please, to protect themselves and everyone around them

There's loads of people going out. Getting into Tesco today took 10 mins, and the guy at the door said he sees the same people coming in every day. It's never going to slow down if we keep ignoring the rules.

We've only been in lockdown two weeks and it takes that long for symptoms to show.

Not taking into account the fact that this is far more deadly than flu

Is it? in 1968, 1m died from a flu pandemic, 1957 3m died, i don't think anyone is predicting these levels of mortality and that didn't inc all those who got secondary pneumonia and died.
Flu never gives anyone "mild" symptoms, its always a very nasty illness.

Shopping 🛒

Basically

As many PP have said, people can be asymptomatic and have this virus. That means that even during lockdown, they are going out. To work. To the supermarket. Since it is not mandatory to wear gloves or a mask, imagine how many plastic surfaces someone with Covid is touching while they are out. Plastic is ubiquitous. Most surfaces on public transport are plastic. And the virus survives on plastic for days. That is why many countries are conducting extensive cleaning campaigns during lockdown.

@Hopeisnotastrategy

I agree with much of your post but to me lockdown is just about allowing the NHS to treat patients, we didn't get our pharma to manufacture test equipment in January, like Germany did, we don't know the extent of infection in the community and it looks like we are trapped in a Herd Immunity plan, whether the Govt has changed its mind or not.

in 1968, 1m died from a flu pandemic, 1957 3m died, i don't think anyone is predicting these levels of mortality and that didn't inc all those who got secondary pneumonia and died.

Those are worldwide figures.

If no action was taken to slow and mitigate the spread of CV they initially suggested 500,000 would die in the UK alone. The other figure used is 200,000. No imagine that in every country in Europe and every state in America, before rolling it out to the populations of Africa/Asia/S.America/Australia.

I think that would be significantly more than 3 million.

Flu never gives anyone "mild" symptoms, its always a very nasty illness

@jasjas1973 people with flu have NO symptoms in THREE QUARTERS of all cases. It's mild or unnoticeable for the majority.

@CoffeeDeprivationCoffeeDeprivation

I never said it was the same as any other virus. You clearly misread what I typed. What I said was, according to medical professionals, it is spread through physical contact then touching your face or from someone coughing in your face - just like other viruses / flues. (So I was referring to how it is spread).

I also followed that by saying I do think it is a particularly nasty virus. You clearly must've missed that also when reading my post

@EmmaBridgewater20

It's not quite the case - they don't know really what the aetiology is with this as it is causing perfectly healthy people to get very sick and die - unlike flu

Actually you're wrong. Google it. Flu does kill healthy people.

The postal service is still running and although staff are practicing contactless delivery, they still obviously touched the parcels which you then touch and bring into the house. The products were also touched by people in warehouses. Same goes for online food deliveries.

Worst culprit is probably supermarket trips which cannot be avoided of course, we all need to eat but it does mean thousands of people are still leaving the house to enter a public place every day.

I've had corona like symptoms this week and I think I got mine from work as my factory is still open. We had a few cases of it there and I presume I caught it before the bosses decided to put wipes and social distancing measures in last monday. Even so we have hundreds working there and staff cleanliness is still not the best

What about people in flat shares who can’t control how much people they live with go to shops/follow Social distancing? My brother is 24 and lives with 4 other people, one of those is a key worker anyway and still at work. He is more highly exposed than a family unit/single person living alone.

Is it? in 1968, 1m died from a flu pandemic, 1957 3m died, i don't think anyone is predicting these levels of mortality and that didn't inc all those who got secondary pneumonia and died

What was done to stop or slow their spread?
What treatment was available?

@jasjas1973 yes, it is important for each country to try and ensure their health service is not overwhelmed at any given time so patients can be given the best possible care. In Italy and Spain (where I currently am) this has happened eg in Madrid and Bergamo with appalling results in the hospitals. Social distancing is a major tactic in managing this problem.

The Spanish are currently looking at testing wider swathes of the general population to understand how many people have been infected, many without knowing , and may have a degree of immunity. Innovatively, they are looking through this to isolate people who test positive but have no symptoms, some of them in government run hotels, hostels etc, to break the cycle of infection. Like every other government however, they are struggling with the availability of accurate tests in the global marketplace.

It is a horribly complex virus to conquer and it is vital that everybody sticks together at this time so that we don’t undermine the progress that has gradually been made