To think another great Depression is coming?

[littleblackdress04]

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

peaceanddove - to be fair, that would be a huge improvement in quality of life for quite a lot of people. That’s why experiments with that sort of thing happen from time to time.

I think everyone knows on some level what’s coming
Hence the drinking , anxiety , escapism

But at this specific moment we are fairly powerless

So not sure what the doom threads acheive

We all know

We are already spending much much more on the NHS. That is a fact
Not quite, as it doesn't take into account health inflation and demand is far out stripping spending and we haven't even began to address the woeful wages.

Re housing. The problem is not council ownership/private ownership but number of houses for people to live in

Ignoring the fact that private rent is in excess of mortgage repayments because many buyers cannot compete against cash rich PLs "investing" in their property portfolios.
Remove PL's, build social housing... problem would be solved, if you took of your Tory hat, you'd be able to see that.

The end of billionaires when millions have no food?
I wish I thought this could happen.
I think I mean more that there might need to be a universal basic income
We should have that already IMHO but you only have to read the benefit-bashing threads on here and see how popular the Daily Mail is to realise a lot of people in the UK would rather poor people starved.

@Walkaround yes people try it from time to time but it's ultimately shit. I cite North Korea and Stalin's Russia for starters.

Eh? I own a house- I’m feeding back what my friend said. It’s all coming and it’s going to be bad- I just hope some good/ societal change can come out of it

You talk to one estate agent and suddenly you're an expert in macroeconomics?

peaceanddove - makes no difference whatsoever to the fact that if you get large enough inequality, that is what people will be willing to try. It’s not as if we don’t know that governments are too scared to let the virus run through populations uncontrolled because if people believe they are just seen as expendable economic units, they won’t feel they have anything much to lose to revolt and try to make sure everyone suffers.

And then that’s an end to democracy regardless.

I don’t normally allow opinions on mumsnet affect me but I must say, this thread has depressed the bejaysus out of me.

I’m under no illusion that there won’t be economic repercussions on the back of the current situation. How long or how deep is anyone’s guess, since it’s on the back of an unprecedented (at least in the modern era) situation. I have friends on both sides of the spectrum, some that think we’ll bounce back and continue as if nothing happened. Others who think that we are all going to end up in the poorhouse.

The reality is, no one knows. If anything, people who think the economy is going to bounce back completely unscathed (“by Christmas we’ll all be back in the Maldives” as one of my friends put it) are a bit naive, but I do like the optimism if nothing else. Those who think we are about to enter a depression of epic proportions with 50% drops in house prices etc concern me more. This sort of sentiment (Scare mongering?) can both deepen and perpetuate an economic downturn. Panic buying is perhaps a good analogy. What food/bog roll shortage there might have been was massively exacerbated by panic buying and stockpiling.
Similarly if people fear a recession so much that they completely stop spending on anything but very bare necessities then that will contribute to the situation and make matters worse. Of course we need to be prepared for a recession of some sort but equally shouting about how bad it’s going to be, especially when there is little empirical evidence available pertaining to the length and depth of it doesn’t help anyone. Quite the contrary.

Well, i’m not a communist but I agree with what he is saying.

Which is fine and nice, but you vote for/support in revolution a communist... and you will get communism. Not socialism. Not a "kinder way". Communism.

As hundreds of millions have discovered before to their great detriment, starvation and murder.

Hence the not voting for him.

I get what you're saying, I agree with you, many do! But turkeys don't vote for Christmas. I'm a turkey and I'm sure as fuck not about to permit me and mine being carved up and plonked on the Marxist dinner table.

I think people who are expecting humans to somehow evolve due to this pandemic are in for a disappointment. Already we've seen the selfishness in action, on a personal and national level. There's no ' we're all in this together '. All this clapping for key workers is ultimately an empty gesture.

Kljnmw - people being willing to come out of retirement to help the NHS indicates to me, then, that some people are more highly evolved than others!

And the naturally selfish are still tribal creatures whose behaviour can actually change quite dramatically, depending on the example being set. It’s amazing how desperate some people are to encourage others to be 100% self-centred and to state that this is actually the norm.

Capitalism as a country/global system is inherently exploitative. Some people who manage but don't directly benefit from this system have been willingly to turn a moral blind eye to this and have convinced themselves that it has to be this way and it is only their special skills and talents that have allowed them to survive or thrive.

Unfortunately for them, they have discovered that they are actually parasitic and not in any way necessary. They want things to get back to 'normal' where they don't have to confront the ugly truth.

Ironically, the essential workers are those that contribute and produce value. NHS workers, social care workers, family members caring for a relative, nurses, farm workers, shop staff, delivery drivers, refuse collectors etc. These are exactly the same people that the capitalist economic system has devalued for years.

This is a testing time. Capitalism has failed. Airline company share buy-backs, increasing debt, coming cap in hand to the state for handouts funded by austerity measures for the 'public'.

Can anyone name an essential worker that has directly or indirectly benefitted from the way things are traditionally done?

Too bloody right I am a socialist and put people before an invented exploitative temporary economic system.

How would the humble shop worker have a job unless people with plenty of disposable income we're happy to buy their goods. Same with nurses, they do a fantastic job, but they work in hospitals, use medicines and equipment that was created and designed by highly educated people. Social workers do a great job, but they studied at universities that were staffed by highly educated people lecturing and devising the curriculum. Our bin men are very obliging, but if everyone is living hand to mouth in a socialist utopia, I bet there would be very few dustbins for them to empty. And I doubt your average bin man would know how to design and manufacture the bin lorry he drives. Oh and some very educated people came up with the technology which runs the logistics of the refuse sites. Delivery drivers only have a job because other people are busily shopping, shopping, shopping thanks to the wonders of the Internet which I'm sure wasn't created by Dave the delivery driver.

All these noble but humble workers are only able to do their jobs because of the societal framework and consumerism created by capitalism.

The recession will hit the middle class hardest. The rich will still be rich, or even richer if they buy assets and businesses that have just devalued. And the poor will still be poor, they have nothing to lose.
Middle class have things to lose. Many people have lost their small businesses that had built for years, lost part of their pensions, investments.

I think the mc will be fine. A society needs it's worker bees and they are wfh, so will keep their jobs and the economy running.
They will soon be back in their corporate offices, and don't forget as they are still earning they are still spending and saving money from commute and other working expenses such as childcare.
The mc will be fine, it's the poor that will struggle.

This they believe will cost some £0.5 TRILLION pounds - already £350 billion has been pledged and there will be the inevitable bail out for airlines, banks and other essential business

That is 500,000 lots of £1million pounds

As a stack of £50 notes it would be a pile of some 600 miles high

Another statistic it’s about 80% of the total revenue the government brings in a year

For absolute certainty taxes will rise, austerity again and wealthy individuals will be made to pay their correct share, wealth tax, higher taxes on high end property and inheritance tax must be amongst the favourites to gather in more taxation as increases on income tax at the lower end would be so unpalatable as working people try to rebuild their lives.

Many economists are saying that the scale of the problem dwarfs the credit crunch of 2008

I cannot see any grounds why property prices will do anything other than fall, if the very low interest rate of 0.1% peculates into mortgage rates it MAY provide a support, otherwise we are into free fall. I hold no qualifications and therefore can only make observations from what I see.

The property auctions are a blood bath with around half the lots being withdrawn and of those that go under the hammer only about 60% sell. Lenders will only lend at present if you have nearly 50% deposit and many are not writing any new business, We are all going to be nervous for the next couple of years until the virus dies out or a vaccine is found. The Spanish flu of 1919 lasted from 1918 to 1920 so I do not see why people would feel confident to commit to a purchase in a falling market. Many small landlords will struggle with already announced tax changes and compliance requirements. Extracting equity by mortgaging may not be possible with much higher LTV

peaceanddove - all very eloquent, but the people designing and building the bin lorries, researching new drugs, and educating others at university are not exactly the world’s super rich either, are they! How much of that would completely grind to a halt if an alternative method were found to sharing out the good things created and supported by human beings - one that realised, like you point out, that we are all reliant on each other, and that the CEO of the FTSE 100 company would also earn fuck all and die of disease if it weren’t for the bin men, etc?

For sure, this level of spending has to be paid for somehow.
Thank God I work for NHS, my skills will always be needed somewhere, son works in social care so should be fairly safe also.
Thank God I sold my house at the top end of the price and downsized so I only have a tiny mortgage.
Maybe my son and other young people will be able to get on the housing ladder now.
I now I sounds mega selfish but I'm quite old and struffled for years through recessions and trying to hang onto a job/house as a single mum.
I remember when the interest rates went up to 15% that very nearly broke me and went on and on.
I feel I've lived through my share of horror.
If youngsters can get jobs then it may well be the route to them getting on the housing market, shit for everyone else though.

I agree with you @Walkaround. Society is very much a house of cards. But the frothing socialism some are spouting on here sounds perilously close to the beliefs held by the Khymer Rouge

@madcatladyforever, the trouble is the houses youngesters maybe able to purchase aren’t the ones they want longer term so the crap areas, the flats with high service charges they will be offloaded onto the young at discounted prices. But tyat actually doesn’t really help them to build a future

Just leaving this here. Yes, society is a house of cards, we are all dependent on each other, non-producers are dependent on producers. What's another way of describing how society or the community is inter-dependent - oh yes, that would be socialism or communism (no frothing necessary).

If you don't like reality avert your eyes or scroll through until the important economic stuff at around 19 mins.

Devlesko
Do you think middle class all work for financial services?
Many run business that cannot operate in lock down and will not survive

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain every attempt to create a socialist state has ended in misery for the vast majority of the population. It has been tried so many times and is an utter failure each time.