To think another great Depression is coming?

[littleblackdress04]

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

@PersonaNonGarter just because Labour didn’t win the election doesn’t mean the that their views aren’t valid. We still have millions using food banks and a disgustingly unequal society that has been ravaged by a decade of tory austerity. The NHS is still wildly underfunded and Brexit is still a tory vanity project.

OP, John McDonnell is a self proclaimed Marxist. He is effectively a communist.

That's what he means by his "new society". Shudder.

His goals aren't popular with the majority which is precisely why Labour were rejected.

The one thing we will all be paying for is a NHS that is no longer ‘wildly underfunded’.

Theresa May’s huge NHS settlement was really the only lasting success of the premiership. I appreciate that it will take time to come through. Rishi/Boris cash is now being lavished. We’re way past 9% of GDP for this year - which is considered globally to be health service gold standard.

Most people do not want communism/Marxism. And they don’t consider the proponents of it to be credible and pragmatic enough to run a country.

Well, i’m not a communist but I agree with what he is saying. This country has massive social problems - millions of people are using food banks & child poverty has massively increased under a tory government - the ultimate irony in all of this is that the tories have been forced to use socialist principles of the state looking after its people in this crisis to rescue capitalism.

And actually - the last election was all about the ‘get Brexit done’ bullshit. Boris basically went after ‘herd immunity’ in this crisis and our figures are looking some of the worst in the world death wise - nurses & doctors are saying openly that they aren’t getting tested, aren’t getting enough PPE etc. So all these people cheering the so called stellar job that the tories are doing - it’s really not the case.

I have a lovely family member (now long deceased - wife of a blood relative) who had a social conscience when others didn't, who always lived very simply, who always got stuck in to help out on a visit to us and other family members . You wouldn't know that their very very rich family didn't really have any negative impact from the Depression. The first I saw was a family photo of a foreign holiday when they were a young teen - I asked when the photo was taken. They told me (rather embarrassed) early 1931. In other words, very rich people tend to do ok.

@PersonaNonGarter ...and if PL's buy up many these properties? Govt is subsidising the market rents, bottom line is that many people can never buy a property.
Tax changes and rent controls can make the majority PL's leave the market, no one has the HR to screw over a population.
Building on its own will not solve this issue, we need to look how the housing crisis was solved after WW2.
Its also arguable that migration into this country and indeed across europe will decrease, leading to less demand, though of course less Brits will emigrate to.

NHS ? no, we will not be spending more on the NHS, the amounts needed to increase salaries, build more hospitals and train more staff are far far more in excess of the current spending plans, which are significantly below Germany's @ 11.5% of GDP and they are starting from a significantly higher base, with a much higher GDP, our aging population will still place huge demands on the NHS and we still haven't fixed social care either.

The Govt is set on more NHS privatisation, the far right of Gove, Raab, Patel etc are still running policy.

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We were probably already in recession so a big drop in house prices within a year 25 -35 % mass unemployment and the knock on effect worldwide
No doubt a lot of lectures to the majority that are in the shit from the few at the top with a few million behind them , Bono Richard Branson etc

Maybe people will treat a house as a home rather than an investment

Mcdonnell ,Blair, Corbyn etc can all fuck off they were not who the country voted for

Well, seems to me this crisis shows if you want something big done quickly, you have to rely on the state. Makes the Tory policy of selling off council houses and relying on the private sector to meet the nation’s housing needs look as stupid as it always was, doesn’t it?

I don't think house prices will drop by 50%, but I think a big recession is coming. However the rich won't get poorer, the poor get poorer. Many will die from this.

@Walkaround exactly. And quite frankly all the tory cheerleading on here is looking all the more stupid because of that.

I hope there will be no more ‘wet markets’.

We are already spending much much more on the NHS. That is a fact.

Re housing. The problem is not council ownership/private ownership but number of houses for people to live in. A price crash only devalues the cost of a house.

If there are 100 people and only 50 houses, the 50 richest people will live in them - rented or owned. This is why private landlords are irrelevant. It is why those imagining a price fall will suddenly mean they can afford a house are deluded.

They told me (rather embarrassed) early 1931. In other words, very rich people tend to do ok.

It depended on how their assets were held. If most of their wealth was in stocks or held in a bank that failed they became poor people just like everyone else.

@PersonaNonGrata are you a private landlord? The problem with an unregulated housing market is that people can charge whatever they want and it’s meant that rents are out of control and people are paying 2/3rds of their salary to line the pockets of a private landlord. It’s created huge inequality and it needs to change. People are living in slums and are trapped. This country has the biggest housing crisis in history. A house is a basic need not an opportunity to build a portfolio at the expensive of families having a safe roof over their heads. It’s everything that’s wrong with this country.

I hope there will be no more ‘wet markets’.

Wet markets in and of themselves are not the problem. They are just food markets which are kept clean by hosing them down.

The problem is the mixing of live wild animals in the food environment - which does happen in wet markets, but is a separate issue. You can get rid of the live wild animals and keep the wet market.

There will be a huge economic impact.

This was something that people read about or watched movies about. They never thought it would actually happen.

The economy has ground to a halt and when something stops completely, it will take time to pick up again just like if you shut down a machine for the winter, it could be a bit rusty when you fire it up for the first time 6 months later.

This Fulough thing is only the start. It pays people’s bills for a few months but once finished, what then? The companies then have to decide if they need those 100 staff or could they actually make do with 80 with a few changes here and there. This could hugely increase unemployment in the short term.

What will happen to consumer behaviour?

Will they just go back to normal or will they think “This could happen again so i need to save some money in case it does” if spenders become savers then that is bad need for the economy too.

Will people book as many holidays based on the way the holiday companies have dealt with them and will the Insurance companies even offer cover? Will business see that working from home and doing meetings by zoom is actually the way to go. This reduces the demand for air travel, train travel, petrol etc....

How do the government get all this money back that they are handing out?

The list goes on and on.

There will be survivors. Those retired who have final salary and state pensions will be ok.

Public sector essential workers should be ok on the whole, particularly NHS/Teachers/Essential Services.

Private sector workers- not such a good outlook. High St Retail is finished for me now. I can’t see them recovering from this. It will be shopping centres with even more boarded up units. Travel companies could go bust. Car showrooms and all their associates suppliers could be in trouble in the short term as people keep hold of cash.

Things will come back at some point but only the best companies with the best service and offerings will survive.

My worst decade was definitely the 80’s when unemployment was high and civil unrest was high.

I can’t see the 2020-30 decade being a great one based on this start.

Er, OP, my post was saying that we need to build many many more quality houses?

Not sure where we disagree on this point? Families can’t have good quality homes unless we build them. There are not enough to go around.

Who they are owned by is not the determining factor of how affordable they are. That is an issue of SUPPLY.

OP

Read your history. “Sapiens” is a good place to start. There have always been elites and peasants, ever since we settled down, started farming and stopped living in small, close-knit tribes. That’s the way humans are wired. No amount of global financial hardship is going to change that: if anything, it is going to massively increase protectionism, tribalism, etc.

Will they just go back to normal or will they think “This could happen again so i need to save some money in case it does” if spenders become savers then that is bad need for the economy too.

Although a few people may think like that, I suspect a lot of people will be the opposite. Many people will have money in the bank because they haven't been able to spend it during lockdown and I think as life gradually returns to normal people will be keen to eat out, go to the cinema, book U.K. holidays etc plus they may buy something big EG I have my heart set on a more comfortable sofa when I can do that, so there will be a little bit of a spending burst which will help some businesses at least.
Despite the First World War then a 1918-1920 pandemic the economy in the 1920's was actually booming (lots of differing factors obviously) but it still gives me cause to be optimistic.

I find it hilarious that some people are desperately hoping this crisis will result in us all being reduced to living in identical cinder block housing, all wearing regulation unitards and only holidaying every third year in a damp tent in Rhyll.

I’m definitely going to be stocking up on hand sanitiser when this is ‘over’. That’s the business to be in. I can’t see me flocking to indoor places with lots of people crowded together. And no more rush hour commuting.

I think the reliance on tech and social media in this pandemic is interesting. They will be our new overlords when this is ‘done’.

It will be interesting to see how working from home evolves. My day job can be done totally wfh but there's definitely a sense that it's not as good with everyone remote. We have numerous ways of communicating but it's not as effective as actually being together face to face. I suspect we might wfh more but I don't think it will become our new normal in the long run.

WFH does not work for everyone - I have never, ever had a successful productive day WFH. At best I might do a a couple of hours of work but usually I browse the internet the entire day and do chores. It's fine if it's once a week, because I'm pretty fast and can all my work done in the office, but if I had a remote job I'd simply get sacked after 2 weeks. I have always been like that with school and uni - could only get work done in the library, where there are no distractions and everybody is working and watching you. For me there is no incentive when no-one can see your screen, as I know I can catch up on the work later.

Also, I love the social side and routine of going to the office and would happily pay for commute and lunches to keep that.