To think that the economy won't just bounce back in three months?

[CloudsCanLookLikeSheep]

I am really worried about the long term effects of all this on the economy. BJ has sugarcoated it saying things will just bounce back when this is over and people start getting back to normal life. I think that's overly optimistic in the extreme. The normal flow of money has been seriously disrupted. Even those furloughed will be on 80% of pay not 100% and most people will be wary of spending on anything more than essentials during these uncertain times.

There may not be 'systemic' issues in the economy at the start but there sure will be in a few months time .Many people will default on debts and bills. Many companies will go out of business and it's all a big chain reaction.

We've never dealt with anything like this before in modern times, even during the spanish flu pandemic businesses weren't disrupted like this as there wasn't a welfare state so people had to keep earning.

I think the economic impact will take years to recover from and there will be no bounce back recovery, AIBU?

MoltoAgitato i agree, the lack of help so far has been shocking (and I was quite sad about leaving the EU)

MarginalGain Completely agree.

My mum was a nurse, in the latter part of her career she was a Sister in a nursing home.
The one thing that bothered her the most was the carting off of anyone with a chest infection to Derriford for IV antibiotics just to keep them alive alive for a few more weeks, despite the fact they had zero quality of life and were suffering from various forms of severe dementia.

I asked her what was the alternative and she said palliative care to ease the symptoms and let them die with some dignity.

Mum had a stroke and lived for another 7 weeks, i would have wished for her to have either died immediately or with a chest infection shortly afterwards, she suffered greatly in those 7 weeks.

@inlawsimnotsure from the university of birmingham. I’m not sure why that matters

@tiredanddangerous presumably because your doom and gloom 'this will last decades' posts suggest you are more of an expert than the actual experts.

No it won't. Get a grip.

@tiredanddangerous

@oldbeforem

correct

In the words of mandy rice-davies, 'he would say that wouldn't he'

What concerns me is that BJ says the UK economy is (was) strong - er no we were on the verge of recession anyway!
And that there are no systemic issues like in 2008. Well maybe not now, but a few hundred thousand businesses going bust overnight, defaulting on loans, mass unemployment etc will surely create some systemic issues right there?

I am however not an economist so would be happily proved wrong on this.

"I can't live with the horror of people gasping for air'. Sure, fair enough I can't either, but tell me, how did we all cope with strangers dying of pneumonia before?

Very good point.

@oldbeforem I’m in no way claiming to be an expert, merely expressing an opinion. Is that not allowed now? You are of course allowed to disagree. I really hope you’re right!

@NoMorePoliticsPlease it’s not a case of immediate lives vs the economy. The long term effects of the recession will result in significant loss of life over a prolonged period of time.

Suicide rates have already been mentioned, but there is also a direct link between the economy and what happens to life expectancy. So we are also choosing between lives now (many of whom are elderly and with long term health conditions that mean their life expectancy is limited) and future lives.

And before anyone jumps on this as sacrificing the elderly for the young, those who are older stand to lose out significantly due to the impact of the recession on pensions and investments such as ISAs, not to mention the impact on state pensions when we can no longer afford them due to the horrible mess state finances are in.

Not straight forward.

@inlawsimnotsure I don't know why you assume YOU are right, and me (and the others saying the economic fall-out from this could last more than a decade,) are wrong.

How breathtakingly arrogant you are to assume YOU know better. It is not doom-mongering at all. It is possible we COULD be paying for this for many years.

So maybe YOU should quit filling people with false hope. You be the fantasist, and me and the others will be the realists!

And where I was educated, or what degree I have - or don't have - is jack-all to do with you. So get off your high horse eh?

@tiredanddangerous I think declaring it 'will' lasts decades in unhelpful.

The truth is none of us actually know - I personally don't find being so negative helpful but I understand everyone copes in different ways!

@anotherlittlechicken

Wow that was a rant!

I'm not on any high horse - I haven't said how long it will or won't last. As I've just said, personally I don't find being so negative (and angry!) helpful and wouldn't feel good about myself for spreading fear and despair. But like I said, none of us actually know, and everyone copes in different ways

@anotherlittlechicken oh wait, you didn't mean me! Same applies I guess.

I mean that said, I hope I AM wrong.

But the poster assuming they are right, and asking 'what school/uni did YOU go to?' (basically assuming they are right)) is boiling my piss tbh, because nobody knows!

It is very likely we WILL be paying for this for a number of years though. Life is not going to go back to how it was overnight. In fact, not for a number of years.

In fact, life will probably never be the same again.

@oldbeforem Fair comment. But I think filling people with false hope is no better than doom-mongering tbh.

No way are we going to just go back to normal within the year. It's going to be much longer sadly.......

it’s not a case of immediate lives vs the economy. The long term effects of the recession will result in significant loss of life over a prolonged period of time.

Absolutely. However ...

If we continued as normal, allowing the virus to claim half a million lives (using Ferguson's figures) the economy will in no way be operating as normal. Recession is pretty well inevitable whatever we do.

I assume half a million deaths, the collapse of the health service, bodies piling up because funeral directors can't cope, loss of care givers, families, friends would also have significant impact on suicide rate and life expectancy.

@anotherlittlechicken do you find thinking that way hard though?

Genuine question. I would be so down and miserable if I thought that way as it's a sad thought.

Why is everybody making factual statements so confidently? And why are all the people who predict a negative outcome also unable to distinguish between fact and their own (probably inexpert) opinion?

I think people would be better off taking it day by day tbh.

We don't know how this virus will behave, how effective measures taken will be, what developments will be made in research in the meantime. There are lots and lots of variables. It may be much quicker than we think. It may not.

@oldbeforem

Hmm yeah it is getting to me a bit, and I do think we will suffer badly financially from this for YEARS.

As I said, I hope I am wrong, and I wish I could be more positive. But I fear a lot of businesses/ companies will fold too

Already 1000s of (zero hour contracts) people have been laid off.

@anotherlittlechicken

I really wasn't on my high horse or assuming I am right and others are wrong, I was pointing out that actually, chances are none of us are economists. We don't KNOW how this will pan out.

Obviously, I hope I am right and you are wrong, surely we all do?

For what it's worth, I am not saying things will be normal in 3 months but perhaps on the road to normal in a few more.

@OttilieKnackered Yeah you're right that nobody knows for sure, but I think the likelihood of another 10 year recession, is more likely than things going back to normal within a year.

@inlawsimnotsure I hope I am wrong and you are right to be honest.

@MarginalGain Don't forget the long term option of 'it will kill the same people in the long term as the short term, but from different causes stemming from economic dearth'.

And these arguments are coming from the same kind of people pointing out the death rates from austerity...

The hard cold facts of the matter is that there really is no protection from this situation. There's no such thing as a protected species, only choices we can make, and changes in the long term.

The collateral damage of prolonged lockdown is incalculable. A decimated economy, under-educated children, a mental.health crisis, raised suicide rates, the young mum who finds a lump in her breast but can't get to see her GP and worries about being s burden on the NHS until this is over. I worry that the cure is going to be far worse than the disease and, before I'm flamed, that doesn't mean I don't give a stuff about the sick or the dying.