To think that the economy won't just bounce back in three months?

[CloudsCanLookLikeSheep]

I am really worried about the long term effects of all this on the economy. BJ has sugarcoated it saying things will just bounce back when this is over and people start getting back to normal life. I think that's overly optimistic in the extreme. The normal flow of money has been seriously disrupted. Even those furloughed will be on 80% of pay not 100% and most people will be wary of spending on anything more than essentials during these uncertain times.

There may not be 'systemic' issues in the economy at the start but there sure will be in a few months time .Many people will default on debts and bills. Many companies will go out of business and it's all a big chain reaction.

We've never dealt with anything like this before in modern times, even during the spanish flu pandemic businesses weren't disrupted like this as there wasn't a welfare state so people had to keep earning.

I think the economic impact will take years to recover from and there will be no bounce back recovery, AIBU?

No, even Trump has been forced (to some extent) to sacrifice the economy.

And the short answer is that we'll all, East and West, leverage up to the hilt, then have a big war to sort it all out.

Someone will win and write their own debt off, someone will lose and pay for it all.

Hopefully we'll win.

I expect it to be worse than the great depression financially. It will be a global financial disaster that will echo for at least another decade. Entire industries will struggle to recover; travel, hospitality, leisure. Bankruptcy on a massive scale.
We are doing what we can to reinforce our savings until we lose our jobs, spending only on essentials, which in turn is hurting the economy.
We need to be prepared.

Maybe the birth rate will go down after this as more realise that children come with costs and responsibilities.

@RandomlyChosenName no, he has been forced to. Scarily, if he could make the decision alone he would definitely save the economy. That's terrifying!

Couple more decades of austerity to get absolutely nowhere and a few hundred thousand austerity deaths is my conservative prediction.

Many of the huge shopping centres and retail stores were in trouble anyway

People have got used to having it all due to the low wage gig economy which is madness.

Things that will end, low cost flights, many fast food restaurants and coffee shops, nail shops, tattoo places, Deliveroo deliveries, and many other things we can live without.

It will take a while to recover. But it will recover. Way to much scaremongering on mumsnet.

I work in food retail. We're already thinking Christmas will be dire because people's personal finances are going to be all over the place.

Its a pro and con that people might start thinking differently about their consumption levels. I for one, have increasingly realized how much crap I buy and how well I can live without it all.

What seems like wonderful handouts now from the government will have to be paid back triple-fold. Tory governments don't give gifts without wanting blood in return.

There was a little line in the speech the other day, that I can't quite recall, about self-employment, and I got the feeling that he implied there will be some re-structuring of the rules, to stop people being so creative with their accounts to dodge tax.

It'll take time. But what's the alternative?

Think of the positives. It's good for nature. People treating food with a bit more respect. People helping people. More respect for the NHS.

He’s never once said we will bounce back In three months.

He’s said that the quicker we get through this, the quicker we bounce back.

Yes we will be paying a long time, yes our taxes will increase to pay for it. But he’s right, the quicker we get back, the less money we spend paying for it, the less we need to pay back and the faster the economy recovers.

But he has never once said as far as I’ve seen we will bounce back in three months, unless you ca post a link to such a thing.

I'm actually bloody terrified of Brexit now. The economic impact of that, coupled with the hit of CV - our grandchildren will still be clawing their way out of this debt...

A German Finance minister just committed suicide.

You're reading way too much into that.

People kill themselves for all kinds of reasons, it would be highly unlikely he killed himself because of the economy when it isn't having a direct immediate impact on them (he wasn't losing his house and livelihood is what I mean by that). I mean, seriously, that's not what people kill themselves over and I should know having spent a fair amount of time in psychiatric hospitals.

It will take a while to recover. But it will recover. Way to much scaremongering on mumsnet.

FFS.

I was the OP that started the Prepper thread on the pandemic in January based on scientific papers and expert opinion. I was told I was scaremongering. I wasn't.

My opinions on this thread are being informed by experts in the economics arena. Now I'm again being told I'm scaremongering.

I'm not.

Predicting negative outcomes in line with experts isn't scaremongering.

If you can't deal with actual facts maybe stick to threads about kittens and baking?

Things will go on as they always have - the rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer and the middle classes will be squeezed even more to pay for it all!

Yep. The rich will make a killing on the volatility and pace of deterioration.

The rich will have to be taxed extra to help pay for this. Dunno how we will get around the tax dodgers though.

I'm dreading the after effects of this. I don't know if what I am imagining is too extreme or not extreme enough. Its quite scary.

Of course it won't bounce back. But the economy is easier to revive than a corpse. We have no alternative, really.

I was the OP that started the Prepper thread on the pandemic in January based on scientific papers and expert opinion. I was told I was scaremongering. I wasn't.

Congratulations. Broken clock blah blah.

A global recession yes, but hopefully very short. A lot of people are sitting on huge amounts of cash right now that they would have otherwise spent on everyday life, holidays, etc etc. When they can start spending again it will be a huge boost. The problem is the debt, but again they’ve set that up in a circular motion so the interest essentially goes back in the same pot. Lack of tax from this year is an issue but again the spending when this ends will be disproportionate to bau so swings and roundabouts.

I don’t think it’s worth the doom that people enjoy on here. Let’s just get through this bit first. Think of what you can do when it ends, positive, spend, new job, old job, fresh start, begin again.

If people keep on lambasting businesses that are still trading, therefore leading to all non key worker businesses being shut down, we are absolutely fucked.

All businesses that can adhere to the 2m rule should absolutely continue to trade and people (Labour party I am looking at you) should stop complaining about them.

If people keep on lambasting businesses that are still trading, therefore leading to all non key worker businesses being shut down, we are absolutely fucked.

Absolutely correct, but people will keep on doing it just the same.

Money has no absolute value - it's all relative to other economies etc.

Almost all major world economies are being hit by this virus.

Therefore, all are affected. One countries wealth shouldn't be reduced by another countries gains in the same way that can happen when one economy tanks and another economy grows.

Obviously, different economies will be affected in different ways, but we're not going to see a seismic shift in wealth value from one country/continent to another.

So hopefully, once it all dies down, things may well return to somewhere near normality, especially for the countries with stronger economies like Britain. Although I really fear for the future of weak economies such as Italy and Spain who were already in the danger zone and are far less likely to bounce back so quickly.

lots of negative posts from posters with economics degrees on here..... oh wait

The future is the future.

80% of the population will not get this. You are making it up. You are scaremongering. You are ignorant.

Social media is evil.

We need to flatten the curve and stay inside at all times to protect the NHS.

Take your bullshit figures with you.

A lot of people are sitting on huge amounts of cash right now that they would have otherwise spent on everyday life, holidays, etc etc.

And a lot of people HAVN'T seen their income fall, such as pensioners, benefit claimants, essential workers, those able to work from home, etc. - they'll also be saving up cash or paying off debt and will be in a good position to start spending again once things start to return to normal.

It's not a question of 'sacrificing the economy'.

The economy is fucked whatever we do.

If anyone thinks the economy would be trundling along nicely if we let this rip (estimated 2 million deaths in the UK based on 80% infection and 4% mortality rates) then they really don't have a clue about how the economy works.

The question is whether this will lead to a total rethink of how we function economically? It might do. We could be looking at a very different world in 5 years time, but that may not be a bad thing.