To wonder why the UK hasn't gone into lockdown yet?

[UnderReview]

Why doesn't the UK shut down now? Prevention better than (no) cure?

There's a doctor on Twitter (Dr Emma Hodcroft) who posted this...

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying.

It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 doesn't seem to lead to death very quickly
It seems like #SARSCoV2 infection takes about 3-4 weeks to overwhelm someone & lead to death - if it does, which for many it does not.

But this then implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks beforehand

And if no cases or only very few, well-tracable cases were detected during those weeks, #SARSCoV2 was circulating undetected.

And then only detected in some people who got ill enough to die. We know that's only a small fraction of the population

We don't know the answer to these questions exactly, but we don't need to in order to appreciate that seeing deaths first, or at time of diagnosis, is concerning to scientists & public health.

It's a sign that #SARSCoV2 is circulating more widely than we thought

This then marks a change in strategy, as we've seen in Italy, where it's very hard to retrace & take action, sometimes impossible. These efforts are still worthwhile, but harder than when detect #COVID19 cases earlier in the chain

[UnderReview]

The thing is, we could be facing the same situation as Italy in a week or two, so we will surely end up on lockdown anyway? Seems silly to let kids go back after half term and make the situation worse :-(

[MmeAlice]

Lockdown will not be possible or effective it has now got beyond that. This is the tipping point.

[RainydaysandMondaysalways]

I'm still confused by the coronavirus. Why is it worse than the flu? Is it the rate of transmissions is meant to be higher?

[GloriaMumsnet]

Hi everyone, can we just urge everyone to refrain from personal attacks, or we'll have to shut this one down before it's even started. Thank you!

[Mintjulia]

For a start, we need to carry on earning a living. Also, how long for? One month? Two?

We have no known cases in the general population. All 5 current cases are directly linked to China/Japan.

And I can’t think of a quicker way to cause panic unnecessarily.

[Seventyone72seventy3]

@UnderReview but Italy isn't on lockdown either?

[Seventyone72seventy3]

So what do you mean exactly by lockdown?

[janemaster]

@RainydaysandMondaysalways Although it is largely people with existing health conditions or very elderly who die, it has a higher death rate than flu.

[LittleRootie]

It's a fair question but not workable. Locking down will cause panic and very damaging disruption when we're not even clear how bad this is yet.

[ErrolTheDragon]

The whole of Italy isn't in lockdown, just two specific areas where there have been outbreaks. So the rest of the country can presumably pretty much carry on and support those areas. Similar elsewhere.

So, with no known cases 'in the wild' at the moment, exactly where do you want to lock down at the moment OP?

[DressingGownofDoom]

@RainydaysandMondaysalways it has a higher death rate than flu, we don't have a vaccination or treatment for it, and it's hard to predict how it will affect people because it is new.

[HulksPurplePanties]

How in the world can you "lockdown"? It's not that simple. It would be huge feat of logistics, not to mention, what do you do for necessities that you import?

The PM doesn't just say "Oh that's it, everyone's got a fancy version of the flu, stop the planes, trains and automobiles!"

[Porcupineinwaiting]

Hmm, lockdown.
So, close schools. Now lots of parents cant go to work, including many members of NHS staff, and people who are combating the flooding along the Severn.

Close cinemas/shopping centres/cancel concerts /football matches/play centres/libraries to stop public gatherings. So now many more people at home but who's going to pay them.

Close the ports. Now there's shortages of food and essential drugs.

Can't think why this isn't a good plan.

[ShanghaiDiva]

The impact on the economy would be massive- look at what’s happening in China.
There is action that the uk govt could have taken - eg closing the border to people coming from China (Australia did this on 1st Feb, I think ) and there is more action that could be taken now eg checks at the airport and improvements in hygiene at the airport. I flew in from HK on 12th Feb and while HK airport had temp checks and what appeared to be constant disinfection of public areas, there did not seem to be any special action taken at Heathrow.
The Chinese govt has implemented extraordinary measures to control the spread of the virus, some measures are incredibly tough, and I think anyone who believes this UK could just shut down is rather naive.
I live in China (out at the moment) and am well aware of what is being done to manage the epidemic.

[KaptenKrusty]

Wtf?? hahah this is a crazy idea! I don't want to be stranded on this bloody island in my house for weeks on end for no reason!

You are being over the top!

I'm getting on a flight to Japan and don't want to be told I can't go tbh - it's my choice on whether to travel or not and restrictions are a crazy idea

[janemaster]

Can you imagine the number of sad face stories if we went into lockdown? Sally is unable to travel to France for the wedding of her best friend since they met at nursery aged 2. Sean's greatest wish was to visit Lourdes. He saved for 10 years to go, but now the country is in lockdown not only can he not go, he doesn't know if he will get his money refunded.
I don't think I could cope with the constant feed of sad face stories.

[ProgrammableMagneticStorm]

I'm still confused by the coronavirus. Why is it worse than the flu? Is it the rate of transmissions is meant to be higher?

I believe it's quite a bit worse than flu for the elderly. If you have pre-existing lung complications the death rate is pretty high.

Also it can resurface after recovery, and the relevant anti-virals can cause organ damage. I'm not clear on whether otherwise healthy people can recover without the anti-virals, I don't believe I've ever taken an anti-viral despite having had the flu.

I suppose the panic is related to the worryingly long incubation period.

[NameChangeNugget]

I don’t think you’ve really thought this through

[janemaster]

Maybe we can go into lockdown while Boris is on holiday abroad?

[Doyoumind]

We can't go into lockdown unless it becomes a real emergency. The economic impact would be enormous and at the moment that would be a greater concern than the risk the virus currently poses in the UK.

[Skyejuly]

Lockdown at this stage just is not possible. If I cant go to work people directly suffer! Son has gcses too!

[ItIsWhatItIsInnit]

How will it work practically though? If no-one is allowed to leave their house/go to work, how will you buy food? Collect your prescription? Go for kidney dialysis/chemo? What will happen with all the companies where the staff can't come in - they collapse? Local business that have to pay their rent but have no customers? Are the bins going to sit there stinking for weeks?

[Bunnyfuller]

This was on Twitter last night, Tweeted by scientists rather than the iffy video clips that went out.

It says we’re well past containment

twitter.com/kakape/status/1231628955242958849

[ProgrammableMagneticStorm]

I don’t think you’ve really thought this through

[ShanghaiDiva]

@Porcupineinwaiting
Exactly!
This is what China has done and the consequences are huge - From managing people whose visa has expired, to people who cannot pay utility bills due to no salary, to people not working as public places are closed, to managing exams for those applying to university this year (schools are currently closed) ...etc