Covid-19 genuine dilemma.

[onalongsabbatical]

Dilemma – I have a friend who’s returning from a month abroad in a week’s time, including Thailand and other eastern countries, hopping from one to another, so more than just the plane out and back, a few plane rides. She went just as the whole Covid-19 thing was beginning to kick off. Thought I was being hysterical (I suspect) when I warned her to be careful. I also suspect she’s not taking much notice of it while she’s away, having too much of a good time.
Here’s the thing; a week after she gets back she’s having a BIG birthday party. Lots of hugging and kisses type thing. I’ve said nothing but I think she should postpone to be on the safe side, and if she doesn’t, I’d rather give it a miss. She’ll be miffed – not angry but miffed for sure – and probably do a fair bit of eye-rolling. My DH, also invited, also doesn’t want to go now – and he’s the driver – it’s out in the sticks, no public transport. He's a scientist and not REMOTELY prone to hysteria!
I really don’t want to put a dampener on her hol by telling her all this now, but on the other hand I think she needs to at least think about postponing until she’s two weeks clear of travelling.
I don’t think I’m hysterical at all, just being cautious.
What do people think? WWYD, just not go? Go and stop being silly? Advise postponing? Thanks - all opinions welcome!

I really don’t think it is being blown out of proportion. We have no idea how many people die from this, whether it can be caught again, whether people relapse. Young and healthy people are dying, so for anyone outside that group ( I am in my 50s, with an autoimmune disease) it is even scarier.
I have two children under 16 and I want them to have parents.
I felt ok until the film director died along with his entire family.

So anyway OP, i think your friend should wait a month.

its taking hold in Italy fairly quickly now...

I wouldn’t go. I live in japan and a lot of public events are being cancelled here. There are reports of people being asymptomatic carriers so the NHS advice may be insufficient. The whole thing is about to explode globally. It’s inevitable. There is no way to contain it.

So anyway OP, i think your friend should wait a month

A month?

What - when even the world’s experts have indicated its a.maximum incubation period of x2 weeks?

Why do posters think they know better or is it healthy anxiety Speaking?

They don’t know for sure that the maximum incubation period is two weeks. That is a guess, not a fact.

Way OTT. Just go to the party.

Just dont go if it will cause you stress. Dont bother trying to explain, just say you dont feel up to it.

I think there are some suggestions it could be longer than 2 weeks like here:

www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-symptoms-24-days-after-infection-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

Though I suggested a month if she postpones party as if people are anxious exactly 14 days will probably make them nervous whereas a month is well clear. Was interesting to watch David and Sally Abel, very few symptoms - just a cough until right at end, both adamant they've not got it then worsened very quickly within a few days to he's got severe pneumonia and needing a wheelchair as can't walk and not obvious at all until it worsened. Obviously in their case they knew they'ld had contact and they should have tested whole boat at start of quarantine. No way of knowing when they caught it but could be any time from when infected passenger boarded to whilst in quarantine.

Scientists are actually saying there is a 24 day incubation period. Their 2 week quarantine period is flawed and it's going to have very dangerous results. I really would urge people to do their own research on this and not rely on the Government for up to date advice.

@Huffs123 where would you go for reliable advice about this? I would like to know the actual facts. Thank you.

@3luckystars I would start by watching the YouTube videos of Dr John Campbell, he does daily updates and talks through everything in a way that is easy to understand. There are a few UK Coronavirus groups on Facebook as well which are a good source for scientific articles and news sharing.

This is what I got from Dr John Campbell about incubation periods. The mean incubation period is apparently 4-6 days (I'm a tiny bit fuzzy on the precise details of this, but I think I am remembering this correctly). However, there have been confirmed cases of some people having much longer incubation periods. It's much less likely to have a longer incubation period, and the vast majority (but not all) will have an incubation period within 14 days.

@Huffs123 I watched one of the Dr Campbell vids last night, it as very helpful, thank you. I'm def veering towards not going and saying something to her just before she travels back, which'll be next Weds, she arrives back Thursday. Also I'll point her in the direction of these as back-up evidence for me not being hysterical but simply cautious. Of course by Wednesday things might be clearer in one direction or the other - quite possibly by then the WHO will have declared a pandemic and NHS advice may have moved on.
I have a frail elderly neighbour who I visit regularly. The risk, however slim, of passing something on to her that would undoubtedly kill her is too horrific to contemplate.

Calculating incubation periods must be tough to get right; a person only needs one contact they don't know about for their incubation period to be completely calculated wrong. What was the incubation period of that superspreader in SKorea? She hasn't a clue how she got it, so no one can know.

Don't bother saying anything to her, what is the point, she doesnt want to know and is not going to cancel her party.
She will just make a mockery of you.

Just dont go and leave her off.

Scientists are actually saying there is a 24 day incubation period. Their 2 week quarantine period is flawed and it's going to have very dangerous results. I really would urge people to do their own research on this and not rely on the Government for up to date advice.

The article alleging possible 24 day incubation period is not peer reviewed and the WHO disagree with it, commenting that the 24 day incubation period actually refers to cases of double exposure to Covid 19.

And not trusting WHO advice / government advice and doing your own research - sounds much like the anti Vader ‘do your own research’ stuff

@Huffs123 where would you go for reliable advice about this? I would like to know the actual facts. Thank you.

I would go to the daily updates given by the World Health Organisation

Wow, I didn't for a minute think anyone in the U.K. would be thinking like this... I live in (one of) the 'eyes of the storm' and we've just had a rather lovely day attending two parties. Out of the many people who have got it, also pls reference the many tested links who didn't, and the people who've all had it and left hospital/ medical care already.

Wash your hands.
Wear a mask if you are really immune-compromised.
Go to the party.

I’m surprised you feel that way as avoiding get-togethers is one of the pieces of official advice given out by many authorities. The problems are that no one knows what the incubation period is, the tests aren’t accurate, and many people are asymptomatic. This means that even the people cleared to leave quarantine may not actually be clear. It’s all a bit of a mess really.

@whiskeychaser if your sister has just returned from Singapore and has a cough she needs to self quarantine for 14 days. Its quite frankly astonishing and completely irresponsible that she wouldn't.

Where's the 'genuine dilemma' compared to the other million or so threads?

@mynamechangemyrules - remember that Mumsnet is Mumsnet and not a representative sample of the population. If it were, the overwhelming majority of the population would today be doing loads of single use towel washing, changing bed linen daily and doing something esoteric with skirting boards

@HasaDigaEebowai, I'm pretty sure the cough started when she was in Australia, and I'm sure if the airline authorities were concerned they'd have taken her aside.

Yanbu!