To think we should stop flights from China?

[Lasttraintolondon]

I've seen a shocking lack of understanding of figures regarding the Coronavirus on here. An example:

runninguphills

All the evidence points to it having an mortality incidence of 3% - although it suspected to be much lower as many who have been infected only gave cold like symptoms and haven't sought out medical assessment.

The usual bog standard flu has a mortality rate of 1%.

Things like the above are utterly incorrect. One in 100 of us infected do not die of flu every year. How many people do you personally know who have died of flu? The actual mortality rate of flu in a given year is lower than 0.02 cases per 100,000 of the population. Swine flu mortality was 26 cases per 100,000. Last week the coronavirus cases killed 26 people out of just over 800. Its an order of magnitude more deadly and just as contagious.

If you debate this, go to the lancet and harvard websites and read what it says about this virus. There are some excellent studies there. Even survivors have been left with things like heart damage. Half the deaths were of healthy people with no underlying health conditions. God knows what this will do to the young, elderly and immune compromised.

So voting - not being unreasonable - stop the flights for now

Are being unreasonable - keep them open.

What about people who have come from China via other countries? What about infected people in Europe? Or maybe all flights and cruises and the Eurostar should be halted for the next year?

Anyway, posts on Mumsnet or the Daily Mail have no effect on government policy.

In 2008 flu in the UK killed 13000 people.

It's all very well saying other people are posting bullshit without actually posting any evidence to disprove them.

I'm not trying to shape government policy and I don't read the mail. I would like to know others thoughts though.

BA have suspended their flights to China already.

Sorry that should have said in 2008 swine flu

Flights are bring cancelled. I think your maths is also wrong as it's not only 800 people infected, more like 10,000.

Sure thing:
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

too little too late I am afraid, should have been done a couple of weeks ago

dementedpixie

Flights are bring cancelled. I think your maths is also wrong as it's not only 800 people infected, more like 10,000

Yes, I did say 800 last week not today. And only BA flights.

Reported figures (different from accurate figures) now show 11374 cases - 259 deaths but only 252 recovered.

If those figures are even vaguely reflective of the true picture then its a very very worrying virus. I do think flights should be cancelled personally. Very few people absolutely have to travel. That way there's a far better chance of containing the spread since the various countries impacted will be able to get on top of the relatively few cases they currently have.

The lancet article you have linked to is descriptive study of hospitalised cases - it doesn't tell you anything about mortality rates overall.

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

reported cases worldwide (updates twice a day)

I would like to know others thoughts though
I mean, you’ve copied another posters post runninguphills so you were clearly on another thread about this. Couldn’t have gathered your data in that thread? Or was it not going your way?

From the bbc:
The mortality rate for the new strain of coronavirus is currently low, at 2% - less than Sars at 10% and Ebola at 70%, the chief medical officer says.

But the death rate could yet go up if more of those in hospital die, or down if it's discovered there are many other people with mild symptoms.

So we just don't know - but if it's 2% that's 2 in every hundred of us which is one hell of alot of people. Why take the risk??

I agree op. I think the death toll will be far higher as according to figures the death toll is pretty much the same as the recovered figures 50/50. Also the Chinese can only test 2000 people per day so the figure of infected people is no doubt far higher.

Pretty poor etiquette to take a post from a named MNer and start a thread on it, singling it out for its "ignorance".

Etiquette Academic? Science is all about debunking myths and challenging inccorect assumptions. I'm assuming your name isn't related to your field of study or nothing would ever be peer reviewed again.

Actually just rechecked the figures for China mainland and more have died than recovered which is worrying.

Actually just rechecked the figures for China mainland and more have died than recovered which is worrying.

In al likelihood some of that is inaccurate reporting but that in itself is worrying and makes the "rumours" coming out of china about many hundreds being dead and bodies being rapidly burned seem more likely to be true.

And the reality is that no government shuts down a city the size of London and literally blocks all roads in and out for a few dozen deaths (which were the figures at the point at which they locked down Wuhan)

And yes I can see the irony in misspelling incorrect. None of us are perfect and I meant no offence to the quoted person. There's no edit button though, so it is what it is....

Science is all about debunking myths and challenging inccorect assumptions. I'm assuming your name isn't related to your field of study or nothing would ever be peer reviewed again.

Oh bless you. Do you think you're doing science and peer-reviewing? No, you just started a thread about how thick another MNer is.

Back on topic please

Okay, well we are all doomed then.🤷🏻‍♀️

Look forward to not paying my mortgage off when we are all dead from coronavirus. Take that Barclays Bank PLC!

Im shocked they havent done this. Makes me cross. I have kids, elderly parents. I have asthma. Ffs. There was a poster with a new born pasted for not wanting to travel within south africa the other day but i understand her anxiety completely.

I feel like it is a matter of time before people start getting this flu.