to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

"The doors comes down to in the end there is more chance that door 3 has the car but it is not a 100% chance . This could be the day the 33% wins ."

It could be, but it is less likely to be, which is all anyone is saying. Good that you no longer think it's a 50/50 chance though.

But the run of wins is dependant.

"But the run of wins is dependant."

Nope.

But the run of wins is dependant.

Dependent on what? That Monty Hall goes oh well, she's won 9 times already, fuck it, I'm taking the car and leaving a goat this time.

There's a version of the 4 corners game where the corners are called hearts, clubs, diamonds, spades, people stand in a corner, and the caller draws from a deck of cards to decide which corner gets eliminated. Cards replaced and shuffled each time and people can move between calls.

Previous workplace tried this at a christmas do which included a bunch of actuaries. Who all chose a corner and stood in it for the duration, because they understood that there was no point in swapping. Their chance of winning was the same whether they stood still or moved from corner to corner constantly.

As I said I don't gamble due to probability

Tombolas , never win.
Raffles nope .
Bingo forced to go as a child many times, no prizes .
My dad once gave me 90% of the Christmas pudding, he had the sixpence .

"As I said I don't gamble"

It shows, and it's probably for the best.

The chances of getting 10 tales on a coin toss is 1 in 1024
Not 1 in 2.
So yes it is dependant

Seriously, coin tosses are the absolute textbook definition of independent events.

www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

A single toss is independent.
Once you require a run of answers the are dependent on the previous toss.

The next toss is always an independent event. Always.

The chance of getting a tails after you've already got 9 is not dependent - the coin has no idea why you're tossing it around. The coin doesn't know if you've tossed it 1000 times already or if you just found it on the floor. The coin doesn't keep track of how it lands. The chance of getting a tails in any fair club toss is always 1/2 whatever happens beforehand.

Mummmy2017

Let's go to a race example. You're in a hurdle race, consisting of ten hurdles.

At the start of the race, the bookies said you had a 1/1024 chance of winning. You've cleared 9 hurdles and you have only one left. You and another woman are the only people who've got this far. Everyone else failed to clear a hurdle and was disqualified.

Viewers are still being allowed to bet online on who wins. Do you think the bookies are still going to offer 1/1024 odds on you winning, when it's just you and one other entrant left and you've only got one more hurdle to clear?

You've now got a 1/2 chance of winning.

Oh look from your link.
Two different questions.

The odds on me all were 1/ 1024.
Given before we had raced.
The odd on what happens on the last race are not the same thing, different question, different odds.

But you have repeatedly said you wouldn't bet on the last toss, you would change depending on which door had one before...you're the one mixing the two up. Nobody else is

I do find it odd that wording changes odds so much.
If you have two doors in front of you and one means you win, one means you loose. That really is 1/2 chance.
You have more information about the odds so while the probability is 33/66 you still have only two doors to open. So you win or loose.
There is no chance you will always win.

No I said I want my door if on one show .
His door if on lots of shows.

No. Same race. Your odds to finish and win this race were 1/1024 at the start.

Are they still 1/1024 when you're nearly all the way round, and you're one of only two people who've made it this far?

mummy, I found this website offered the clearest explanation: betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

In a nutshell: ‘The more you know, the better your decision’.

mummy No I said I want my door if on one show .
His door if on lots of shows.
Can you explain this statement please? Assuming you want to win, why would you not choose the door with the highest chance of winning (the swapped door) on your first game?

That is silly because your talking about two different bets.
No betting shop would ever do this
Bet 1 no info known.
Bet 2 is just who can jump this jump, with the past jumps already known.

The ‘better explained’ website also has a game in which you can actually play the door game. You can set the number of doors. If you set it to 10 or 15 doors, you will be able to see very clearly how the odds change drastically. (The more doors there are, the better the odds get for switching)

Your either going to win or loose. How is that not 1/2.

Tomorrow it will be 30 degree sunshine, or it won’t be 30 degree sunshine. How is it not an even chance that tomorrow will be baking hot, or not?

mummy, but that’s exactly the scenario described upthread for making a bet on the Rugby. 6 brand new untested teams would each have an equal chance of winning, but the trans are established, and because people know Italy aren’t very good and have never won, they are much less likely to win than the other teams (who are better at Rugby!)