I've just spent an interesting hour reading some of the Hansard debates on this bill.
Striking was the contribution of Lord McColl, a transplant surgeon. He warned the house that opt out systems often destroy patient doctor trust and result in fewer potential donors.
I will explain why. For anyone who is unfamiliar with the world of organ donations and assumes that only those who have signed the organ donor register can be donors, it is easy to see the huge appeal of deemed consent. If 37% of people have signed the donor register, then introducing deemed consent is clearly attractive; even if this provoked 10% of people to opt out, one would still be increasing the total pool of donors from 37% to 90%—a huge boost.
But this is not how organ donation works. At the moment, anyone in England can be an organ donor apart from the 0.7% who have signed an opt-out register. Crucially, you do not need to have signed the organ donor register to be a donor. In fact, as I set out at Second Reading, most organs donated in England in the past five years came from donors who had not signed the organ donor register or the opt-out register. The key to their donation was their family, who made the donation decision for them. Rather than increasing the total pool of donors, the introduction of presumed consent actually threatens to reduce the total pool of potential donors from 99.3% to something more like 90%—a small but not insignificant minority opt-out.
In Wales, over 180,000 people, all of whom were previously potential donors, have now withdrawn from donation. This equates to 6% of the population. All of those potential organs are now lost to the system.