The USA has assassinated one of Iran's top Generals at Baghdad aitport

[chomalungma]

AIBU to think this will lead to just more escalation in what is already a volatile area, given all the issues in Iran at the moment, the proxy wars, the recent arrival of US troops in Iraq.

We also have some British troops in Iraq, as well as Royal Navy ships in the region. This escalation affects us as well.

This person who was assassinated does have blood on his hands www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/who-is-qassem-suleimani-profile-iran but does a drone strike killing of him.

The response from Iran

"The Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said on Twitter: “The US’ act of international terrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani – THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al – is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation. The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.”

What consequences will there be?

Justanotherlurker And you're the voice of reason and the expert are you? I think not.

I hope this doesn't lead to another 9/11. All the world suffered. And still does.

This was quite an interesting discussion until you came along like a self proclaimed expert, without actually saying much apart from calling me thick.

Agree with this ☝️

Do add something to the discussion, but can you stop with the personal attacks on posters

Justanotherlurker please stop derailing an important discussion with your random insults of other posters its tedious.

I think the Iranian was killed in Iraq. I believe someone said he was killed in Iran. It is quite an important point as Iraq in a US/UK friendly state and Iran is not.

Read an article this morning by a guy who’s written 4 books on politics in the ME. So I’m assuming he’s not thick on the subject. He discusses how Trump seems to have no long term plan, that the consequences for this will be massive. He even talks about how Trump’s motivation could be to take the heat off him around the impeachment. Hey, maybe he’s just copying and pasting stuff he’s read on Twitter. 🤷‍♀️

He says that Iran will actually be better than Trump about having a long term plan so his opinion is that we won’t see a massive military retaliation but instead Iran will use/allow/encourage various terrorist type organisations to do their dirty work for them.

Interestingly a UN ambassador has called it an assassination and says that America has effectively declared war on Iran.

I think Iraq is getting less US friendly by the day. Their government are meeting to discuss ordering an immediate withdrawal of US troops and this is likely to be ordered. There was a senior Iraqi commander killed in the same attack.

Statement by the Iraqi ministry of defence;

'We affirm that what happened is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a clear breach by the American forces of their mandate which is exclusively to fight Islamic State and provide advice and assistance to Iraqi security forces,'

They don’t sound very happy.

@Griefmonster Thank you - what a kind comment!

Oz Katerji (mentioned upthread) is generally an excellent journalist on the region - I don't always agree with his conclusions on things (which is fine :-)) but he conducts impeccable research and is extremely competent and knowledgeable.

Also Christopher de Bellaigue - he's a scholar more than a journalist (though he does sometimes do articles) but is probably the leading Western writer on Iran (he's also highly readable) who doesn't have any real complicating factors in his work.

For Iranian FP etc, take a look at the work of Anoush Ehteshami - he's an Irani who has been in the UK since the revolution, and an important scholar. Can be a bit academic and dry, but usually spot on (don't know if he's on Twitter though!)

And to a PP who said that someone who has written several books is an expert as a result - I refer you to Jeremy Bowen . Seriously - academics write books. It's not, though, the Pope speaking ex cathedra

Just because Trump did it doesn't make it objectively bad. Targeted killing - whether of Osama bin Laden, Jihadi John or terrorist commanders in Gaza - is inherently problematic from a democratic, human rights and international law stance. This particular case is neither better nor worse morally - it's not more repugnant or more intrinsically dangerous just because Trump has authorised it.

And all this "the West shouldn't meddle" stuff: we live in a globalised, interconnected, interdependent world, folks. That ship sailed well over a century ago.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are willy waggling at each other to be the top dog in the ME. We get a lot of news/propaganda from the conflict in Yemen - bad Saudis. Meanwhile Iran are distrusted by the US so the darlings of the European far left are seen by some as the if not goodies, the "less bad" baddies.

As The New Statesman article said. There is no long term plan behind this assassination. If there was some thought process in place to deal with the fall out from such an event and if we as nobodies had the confidence in our governments leaders to have thought through this action, perhaps there would be less anxiety.
Instead, Trump has slashed through the fragile threads holding a sort of global calm and we are heading who knows where.
We dont trust BJ to think beyond his own immediate needs wants and desires and happy to send in UK support.
Israel is a sitting duck, which, if attacked, has powerful supporters I think willing to go out to bat for them.
Western cities are targets for acts of terrorism in small and major ways causing huge anxiety, cost of increasing anti terrorism policing.
It's a many headed monster that will not culminate in a single targeted strike. That's what is worrying me most.
Will I be walking across London Bridge, past a tube station when a terrorist stabs me and others then detonate an explosive device? Or will it be my family or your family?
The usual rules of engagement are not in play these days. Iran cant send a drone strike over Mar A Lago. Trump will ever be directly affected. Instead there will be a game if Whack A Mole that cause terror.

Just an aside, expats/Westerners in the UAE are very soft/easy targets in this - if you or your family work there, I'd suggest reviewing your security processes as a matter of importance. (Obviously, people review them regularly anyway, but an extra reminder can't hurt)

Hefzi may I add my thanks also. Your knowledge and balanced view of this situation is calming. Seeing the wider picture and not just black and white absolutes is helping me make sense of events and the background.
I am off to read some of the sources you mention.
Should I send a little list to Donny? Think hed have a few minutes to have a read?
No?
Which is half the problem. A barely literate leader. That goes for all of them by the way. A few more I could mention.

Very worrying. Reminiscent of Germany 1939 - "we didn't start this war, we were unbearably provoked".

I'm not surprised I had the Jehovah's witnesses round yesterday as it does seem we are moving closer to Armageddon.

lolaflores I'm not entirely sure that he can read . Honestly, you think Berlusconi is the worst a politician can be in the developed world... Trump: Hold my beer

Trump's number one priority is always to protect Trump, he is a family annihilator writ large, in his mind he owns America and if she will not defer to him he will destroy her

Impeachment distraction?

It baffles me that people think its ok for the US to behave like this.

But then people are always ready to make excuses for behaviour on what they perceive to be their side. They would condemn the same in others.

Essentially this is an act of terrorism.

The impeachment hangs inbthe Senate which the Republicans have locked down as far as I can tell. No certainty he will face any consequences. Unless the party turn on him. Anything is possible.
Nah.
Donald is doing what he does which is shocking, impulsive and an expression of his immaturity and arrogance. No doubt in opposition to all the Intel available to him.

I think the party will turn - he has now also pissed off all the people he had promised to bring troops home. That’s a lot of pissed off service men and women and their families.

I listened to an American ‘expert’ (retired general) on radio today bla on about how America doesn’t meddle on foreign countries or try to change regimes. Now I may be mistaken...

I really hope this is Trump's undoing

I worry about who will take over and also who the democrats will get to run. Warren (‘my pronouns are’) is a hopeless case and the rest aren’t up to much. Why is it so hard to fine one decent candidate?

Why is it so hard? I suppose the answer might contain the phrase 'poisoned chalice'?
I wouldn't fancy it

I think it’s because you need $$$$$ to run and lets face it, if you have the $$$$$ or are backed by the people with $$$$$ you /they aren’t exactly going to be a man/woman of the people or mother Theresa are you?

Thank you @Hefzi. I find 20thC political history in the region fascinating. I feel like I lost the thread completely in the 21stC!

I think it’s because you need $$$$$ to run and lets face it, if you have the $$$$$ or are backed by the people with $$$$$ you /they aren’t exactly going to be a man/woman of the people or mother Theresa are you?

As you are talking dollars, how does Clinton having more money spent and backers explain her loss?