AIBU to not understand how a “no deal” is possible given Parliament will vote against it?

[virginmojito]

If this isn’t a daft question please, what do people presume will happen when Parliament rejects the “no deal” scenario that we are almost certainly headed for now.

Will we still crash out by default? Will the government collapse? What will happen?

Parliament voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50 so the default position is we out with or without a deal. Numerous deals have been put forward and none have passed a majority. The EU has given an extension but has no obligation to give one and don’t think it’s possible for MPs to force the government to request one.

Throckmorton that's not the case - the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

Thanks everyone for putting me straight! I would say that's good news, but I can't see the current bunch of bastards revoking A50 sadly.

There is a court case to be heard in early September to get a ruling as to whether Johnson can prorogue parliament to force a no deal exit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/court-hears-challenge-boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit

If there's a vote of no confidence which succeeds, Parliament could then take control of the process and either ask for an extension or revoke.

The parties would all have to work together to form a government though and if they couldn't then there would be a GE.

But how can BJ et al push enact legislation that Parliament rejects?

The legislation is already in motion. When we triggered article 50 we said we were leaving on x date. That date can only be extended with agreement of the EU. That can happen with a deal agreed by parliament or with no deal at all. Parliament can’t vote against no deal, it’s not within their control. It’s also ridiculous that they voted for no deal, voted against the current deal and voted against extending the date, all at the same time.

Who can now trigger a vote of no confidence?

Surely if there was ever a time, it’s now!

Problem with a vote of no confidence, if it fails (ie, if the PM wins the day), the PM is immune from another vote for a year. This happened not long ago with May, she got through by a narrow but tolerable margin. If someone is to table one, they need to be pretty damned certain they have the support to topple the PM.

virginmojito my understanding is that there are plans to do so in early September.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/12/labour-exploring-rapid-no-confidence-vote-in-pm-in-early-september-no-deal-brexit

AwdBovril that's not the case if the opposition are calling the vote of no confidence in the government - the last one was earlier this year.

I think the one year rule is only when there is a vote of no confidence in the PM.

@ghostofharrenhal - If there's a vote of no confidence which succeeds, Parliament could then take control of the process and either ask for an extension or revoke.

The can't do that unless they form a government. That would require cross-party agreement, which, given the current shower of incompetents, isn't a given. The EU can only deal with the government directly.

Sorry meant to say the one year rule is when it's the parliamentary party is calling a vote of no confidence in its leader.

The can't do that unless they form a government. That would require cross-party agreement, which, given the current shower of incompetents, isn't a given. The EU can only deal with the government directly.

Yes, as I said in my other post - they have 14 days and then it's a GE.

Supposing there was a vote if no confidence in early Sept and it went through. Would that mean there is effectively no govt? I can’t see Parliament cobbling some emergency consensus together. So the EU would effective have no UK govt to deal with. Would they be prepared to wait for the outcome of a GE in this event?

I know I’m clutching at straws here!

I agree though that it isn't a given they could do this, as you said the opposition are a shower of uselessness at the moment.

As BJ won the leadership battle by a clear mile, how would he now be defeated in a no confidence vote?

Well he was only voted in by members of his own party GodDammit. The other half / majority in Parliament would not vote for him.

We cease to be an EU member state by operation of law on 31/10 and Parliament can have as many votes as it likes to stop that, but unless those votes involve accepting the withdrawal agreement or revoking A50 notification, they will have no effect whatsoever. This fact appears to be widely misunderstood.

virginmojito I think the EU has implied it would grant an extension for a GE, but I am not sure how that could happen if an alternative government couldn't be formed - who would have the authority to ask for a GE, anyone know?

My fear is that Johnson will call for a GE to take place on/just after 31st Oct which woudl mean Parliament woudl be dissolved 25 days before the GE and so there would be way to prevent No Deal.

ScrommidgeClaryAndSpunt I bet my bottom dollar EU would grant an extension for a GE.

MPs voted to leave (A50)
MPs then voted against a deal - three times

MPs can’t now freak out about No Deal.

If they wanted and deal they could have - and should have - voted for one. They didn’t - so no deal it is, sadly.

But how can BJ et al push enact legislation that Parliament rejects?

Because No Deal doesn’t require legislation. It’s just what will happen if the government can’t get parliament to agree a deal to which the EU will also agree.

There are two different types of No Co Firenze votes.

One is across parliament - no confidence in the government.

One is party internal - no confidence in the party leader. This is the ‘not again for a year’ one

@virginmojito - Would they be prepared to wait for the outcome of a GE in this event?

The EU cannot unilaterally extend A50. The UK must ask for an extension, which cannot be done if there is no government. The EU then need to unanimously agree to the extension. They have already intimated that, if asked in order to facilitate a GE, they would be open to it.