To think house prices will drop sooner rather than later?

[motherinlawstongue]

Especially in Southern cities like London or Cambridge where house prices are ludicrous. AIBU to think that house prices are going to have to start dropping in a few years time, when those who missed out on house price jumps start moving to smaller houses for retirement and there'll be a glut of bigger houses for sale?

A few people think like this only to find that the house they like is, a year later, 20K more expensive.
When people talk about house price crashes of 30% or whatever, I don't believe it. Something dramatic would have to happen to wages for this to occur.

Meh people have been saying we are going to see a property crash since 2008, any dip will be fairly short lived , I think a continued period of stagnation is more likely

I made this mistake in Manchester and waited 7/8 months thinking there was no way the prices were maintainable in a northern city... wrong.

I’m not sure prices will fall but I obsessively check Rightmove and houses aren’t shifting - admittedly Cambridgeshire rather than Cambridge but I’m finding houses that have been on since last year.

Ha ha ha. No. Prices may stagnate and not rise as quickly but it seems unlikely they will fall by much. Espc in London.

As long as there are hideous traffic jams to get into Cambridge, house prices will stay buoyant.

I'm in Manchester they are going up a lot round here

No. I think they will stagnant in some areas whilst wage inflation increases so potentially, in 10-15 years time property will be slightly more affordable.

Although I work in the Cambridge development market and I think the Cambridge property market has always been quite exaggerated. Some people made the mistake of thinking it was basically the most expensive place in the country. In reality it’s because more expensive but was relatively cheap until a few years ago so it’s just been a dramatic leap. It’s no London though, and people have invested too much in acting as though it is

Why do you assume OP that people will downsize in retirement? We have no plans to do so, and if we do move, it will be to another 4 bed house, just in a town, rather than a village.

People have been saying this my entire adult life.
I mean in theory they could if demand dropped substantially, but how realistic that is I'm not so sure.

I wanted to buy since 2003 and waited for house prices to drop, only to see them spiral further upwards. Finally bit the bullet in 2014 and got a mortgage for a vastly inflated amount because prices clearly weren’t falling.

Imo the government will do anything to prevent a crash and widespread negative equity. Plus even if prices do fall, unless there are a lot of forced sellers (e.g. a huge recession) there still won’t be cheap houses available to buy. People will just sit tight and refuse to sell until prices go back up.

A massive crash wouldn’t actually benefit ftb anyway. A long period of stagnation would be more helpful in the long run.

Supply and demand. There's always a demand for housing. Now more than ever.

Nah, high house prices and low interest rates are all that's keeping the tories in power.

Have you seen the cost of life in retirement villages ?
People won't be able to afford to move into them if they don't get top dollar for the house they are selling.

If you have a house that is bigger than you need (which is fewer eople than you'd think once you factor in those keeping space for families to come and stay), you don't need to move in the same way you do when you need more space or are moving for school catchments or for a new job. You only sell if you can get what you think is a good price for it. You tend to not bother going to market if it is valued at less than you thought it was worth. So fewer properties come on to the market, which tends to encourage them achieving what they are asking.

I'd quite like to sell, in the next 3 or 4 years, but it only makes sense if I could get what I think my house is worth. If an Estate Agent tells me my house is worth 20% less than what I think it is worth, then I don't like the smaller houses I could afford, enough to bother with the move, so we'll stay here.

We were buying chain free last year. I viewed a lot of properties before buying this one. There’s very little new stock on the market. Mostly it was houses available due to divorce/death/downsizing. Otherwise people are sitting tight.

We’re now renovating and all of the suppliers/contractors I’m meeting (from garden design to windows to curtain lady) are busy, as clients are upgrading their current homes versus moving.

I think there will be price stagnation, but not a widespread crash.

I’m in an area of Greater Manchester with mainly 2 bed houses which are going up by about £5-10k every few months. Those of us with larger houses in the area have people knocking on our doors or putting letters through letter boxes asking to buy our houses for 15-20% more than similar ones sold for, on the same streets, last year.

Demand outstrips supply.

We put our house on the market last year to downsize. We got offers that were not high enough for us and it seemed that the difference more or less equated to the potential buyer's stamp duty or cost of alterations they wanted to do (make a white box). They wanted us to pay for their SD/work. We took it off and dr used to sit tight.

House prices will only crash of people desperately need to sell. People will no sell without extremely good reason and end up in negative equity. I don’t think the massive interest rates that are usually a precursor to a crash will ever happen now the bofe setsthem.

The Northern cities seem to be experiencing a resurgence but the South East is stagnant. Don't make the mistake of thinking prices can't crash - look what happened in the 90's. 16% interest rates and 40% drops. I can see it getting close with Brexit. Prices in London already dropping up to 10%.

A big recession that resulted in lots of forced sellers and low prices, would also result in less mortgage availability and less ability to pay those mortgages due to job losses and high interest rates. Borrowing less at a higher interest rate may well cost the same amount per month anyway so you’re no better off!

No resurgence in my northern city. Prices are sighing, rTher than plummeting, but still on their way down, on average.

We have been in our house in a naice town just west of Guilly for 19 years, we paid top dollar at the time.

The house has risen by 168% in that time, it only dropped once and that was the quarter after 9/11, it dropped by half of a percent.

It has now stagnated for two quarters, but crashed ....... nah...

168% return... works for me.

I believe the south east is suffering at the moment but it's a very recent development and it definitely was not this bad in 2018. Our neighbours with practically the same house have listed their house for £30k less then we sold for in early 2018, it has not sold after months and has been pulled off the market now.

Up north around Manchester, demand is high and that demand extends as far as Preston where new houses are going up then being sold quickly. There are many workers who can no longer afford Manchester moving up to Preston since many down south have decided to get more for their money in Manchester. It's also an even more buoyant market in Scotland. We were looking for a house in Scotland and when you looked around places that were commutable to Edinburgh (such as Dunfermline), you were looking at an Offers Over situation with a closing date and people bidding 20-30% over the mortgage survey amount on the Home Report, which they would then be forced to make up the difference with cash.

I believe a factor in the south floundering is that foreign investment is starting to look at other cities than London. Manchester is attractive to an international buyer looking to make a profit, and there are direct flights to China now as well.

One more factor is houses are going down globally, I think the housing market is sluggish in Canada and the US has had a dip because of a tax overhaul with a cap on deductions. The property bubble is affected by global trends.

Nonetheless this dip is temporary. The houses will bounce back for a few reasons:

1. Houses have replaced jobs as a safer source for income and investment. Many people have seen their peers get rich by collecting rent and snapping up more property so this is a popular investment choice now, moreso than traditional ideas around stock market and whatnot.
2. Airbnb has turned your local flat to a successful business and now there are people who have sucked up many flats to turn in to more business which has turfed out many buyers.
3. The population of the UK is still increasing and these people need to live somewhere.
4. The UK is a very attractive country to buy in for foreign buyers, but I believe there is a rumour now that London has hit its top and they are looking at different areas.

In Reading, SE. Houses that were going for 275 in 2016 are now lucky to get 240/250.