Renato Mariotti
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@renato_mariotti
1h1 hour ago
THREAD: What does Manafort’s cooperation tell us?
1/ Today prosecutors with Mueller’s office announced that Manafort’s plea agreement in the D.C. case was a “cooperation” agreement. That is big news—Manafort has agreed to tell Mueller everything he knows about potential criminal activity by anyone.
2/ The DOJ does not let defendants cooperate as to some people but not others. If a defendant cooperates, they have to provide the government with truthful and complete answers to any question and be willing to testify in any matter they are asked to be a witness in.
3/ For that reason, Manafort is not cooperating against one person in particular—he has agreed to say everything he knows, and in order to receive a deal, he had to already begin doing so. Prosecutors don’t give deals until after the defendant provides useful info.
4/ This also means that Manafort has something of value to offer Mueller. Mueller would not have given him a deal unless Manafort was able to help Mueller make a case against someone else or significantly strengthen an existing case.
5/ Until we see the plea agreement, we won’t know exactly what Manafort is receiving in return. But aside from being capped at ten years, the main benefit he would likely receive is the government recommending a lower sentence based on his cooperation.
6/ One thing is obvious—Manafort could have gotten a better deal if he flipped in the beginning, instead of wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees fighting Mueller. Until now, it looked like Manafort was angling for a pardon, but flipping runs counter to that.
7/ Trump recently praised Manafort for refusing to “break.” His reaction to this this deal will be worth watching. Manafort was chair of the Trump campaign and he was present at the Trump Tower meeting, so Trump has a reason to be concerned about what he might tell Mueller.
8/ That said, today’s cooperation deal does not necessarily mean that Manafort is getting the deal to flip on Trump. He may be getting the deal because of information he provided about someone else. But the deal does mean that he has to tell Mueller all he knows about Trump. /end